News Article: SEC's, Bama's bowl picture shaping up

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SEC's, Bama's bowl picture shaping up
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 20, 2008

Last week went a long way toward clearing up the SEC bowl picture, and there's now just one week of games left. Here's a quick run-through of Alabama's options and what's going on around the SEC. First are the SEC teams on the bubble, then Bama, then the rest.

Mississippi State- The Alabama loss knocked the Bulldogs out of the bowl picture. They'll sit at home.

Arkansas- The Razorbacks were off Saturday and face the same scenario they did before. They must first beat Mississippi State, then upset LSU at home (well, in Little Rock, at least) to get to 6-6. Beating Mississippi State shouldn't be that hard; the Bulldogs came out of the Bama game beaten up and now, at 3-7, don't have much to play for, not to mention that rival Ole Miss is next week. As far as where the Razorbacks will go, that depends on two things: the fate of Alabama (I'll discuss it below), and that of Auburn. Most likely destination: Independence vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, Kansas, Colorado, Akron or Bowling Green, unless Auburn gets to 6-6 and the SEC fails to get two teams into the BCS. If that happens, see the discussion of Ole Miss' bowl trip at the end of this article.

Auburn- Simple here: Beat Alabama, get bowl-eligible. Lose, sit home. If Auburn wins, a bowl appearance still isn't guaranteed if Alabama also falls to Florida and falls out of the BCS and if Georgia also loses to Georgia Tech. If Auburn and Arkansas are both bowl-eligible, and the SEC fields two BCS teams, the Independence will still likely take Arkansas over Auburn given that Arkansas fans are a better bet for that game and 6-6 Razorback fans would be in a better mood for bowl travel than 6-6 Auburn fans. Thus, Auburn would end up in Birmingham, against either Rutgers, West Virginia in a rematch, or South Florida in a rematch of last year's big loss on the Plains. But if Alabama and Georgia fall out of the BCS, it will put Ole Miss in Shreveport, and Arkansas would be the one looking for a place to go, as there's no way Birmingham would jump over Auburn to take the Razorbacks.

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Alabama

There are four potential scenarios for Alabama's bowl destination.

Scenario 1: Beat Auburn, beat Florida- This is the one most Bama fans believe will happen and is certainly the one all UA fans hope to see happen. In this event, Alabama is guaranteed a trip to the BCS Championship Game. Potential opponents are Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma or Southern California, depending on how the last two weeks shake out.

Scenario 2: Beat Auburn, lose to Florida- This is the oddsmakers' favorite. In the event it happens, Florida will likely go to the BCS Championship Game, and sources say the Sugar Bowl would eagerly snap Alabama up. Potential opponents for this game include the Big East champ (Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Rutgers and Connecticut are still in the running), a BCS at-large slot for a non-BCS team (Utah, Boise State) or, least likely of all, an at-large opponent from a BCS conference. Two teams eligible for that kind of consideration would be Penn State, which would set up a rematch of the 1978 Sugar Bowl 30 years later, or Southern California if Oregon State holds on for the PAC-10 title. The monkey wrench here is if Florida State beats Florida first, which would knock Alabama and Florida both out of the BCS Championship Game and put Florida in the Sugar. For what happens to Alabama in that case, see Scenario 4, below.

Scenario 3: Lose to Auburn, beat Florida- This is the scenario with the most possibilities -- including appearing in the BCS Championship Game despite losing to Auburn. For that to occur, several things would have to happen. For starters, it would really help if a bad Texas A&M team could upset Texas, which would be even more of an upset than Auburn beating Alabama. But even if that doesn't occur, Alabama could get there if (a) Oklahoma beat Texas Tech, then lost to either Oklahoma State or Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game; (b) Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game, but Texas loses to Texas A&M and Texas Tech falls behind Alabama in the BCS standings, a risky proposition; (c) Southern Cal loses to UCLA or Notre Dame; and (d) Penn State falls to Michigan State to ensure voters won't give Paterno one last shot at the championship. More confusing yet, you can mix and match these scenarios; only two out of the four are required and three out of the four would basically cinch it. As for Alabama's opponent, it could be any of the surviving Big 12 schools, Penn State, Southern Cal, or maybe even a rematch with Florida. Ohio State could also slide in the back door -- or it could be one of the unbeaten BCS busters, Utah or Boise State.

Scenario 4: Lose to Auburn, lose to Florida- This would be a nightmare way to end the season, for sure. The same sources that tell us the Sugar Bowl would jump to take a one-loss Alabama team also say the Sugar would take Alabama at two losses, if they can (a possibility if Florida holds at one loss). If Florida falls to Florida State and beats Alabama, however, it triggers the next round of bowls, which include the Capital One, Outback and Cotton, as Florida would end up in the Sugar by virtue of being the SEC champ. The smart money in that case would be on Alabama playing in the Cap One in Orlando against a Big Ten team, virtually certain to come from the Michigan State-Ohio State-Penn State trio and, of that bunch, Michigan State would be the most likely opponent. An Alabama-Michigan State matchup would feature two of the most physical teams in the game and there would be scrap iron all over the field afterwards. Should Georgia vault over a two-loss Alabama team, however, the Outback would figure to be next, but the Outback has typically been cooler on Alabama teams than the Capital One. The Outback could opt for LSU or even South Carolina, but it would be a shock if either happened. In the Outback, Alabama would likely get either one of the same three teams in the running for the Cap One, in addition to Iowa or Northwestern. If Alabama falls all the way to the Cotton -- the chances of it happening being somewhere on the order of 0.1 percent -- the Tide will get the loser out of the Texas-Texas Tech-Oklahoma trinity.

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Now, for the rest of the SEC:

Florida- Florida basically has the same options as Alabama. It is doubtful that Florida would fall below the Capital One level even with three losses, although the Outback is a possibility. For a list of possible opponents, see the discussion on Alabama, above.

Georgia- Provided the Bulldogs don't lose to Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs are a lock for the Capital One Bowl, and could yet slip into a BCS at-large slot depending on what Florida and Alabama do in their rivalry games. A loss to Tech might not even knock the Bulldogs out of Orlando, and the chances of them falling below the Outback are virtually nil. List of opponents is the same as Florida's and Alabama's.

LSU- LSU seems set for the Cotton Bowl, although the Outback and Capital One are possibilities if the teams ahead of them wet the bed in the final two weeks. Even if LSU loses to Ole Miss or Arkansas, the Cotton looks like the Tigers' likely destination. But losses in both games would make LSU 7-5 and could send the Tigers to the Chick-fil-A, especially if Ole Miss finishes 8-4. In the Cotton, LSU would get the Texas-Oklahoma-Texas Tech outcast. In the Peach (sorry, force of habit), LSU would get the ACC's No. 2 team. That's an article unto itself, given the ACC's volatility this year. Literally 10 of the league's 12 teams are a possibility -- basically, anyone but Duke and NC State. Most likely, it would be North Carolina, Maryland, Florida State or Boston College.

South Carolina- The Gamecocks appear headed for the Outback no matter what happens against Clemson, unless Vanderbilt or Ole Miss closes at 8-4, which is unlikely in either case. If South Carolina beats Clemson, which is expected, Gamecock fans can start searching for Tampa hotels forthwith, with the only thing that could screw up the process at that point being if the SEC gets only one BCS team.

Kentucky- Kentucky has only Tennessee left, and the Wildcats will be favored in that game. If Kentucky wins, provided things don't go haywire at the top of the conference, Atlanta looks like the most likely destination. Complicating factors include what happens at Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. If all finish 7-5 and the BCS gets two conference teams, the Outback probably takes South Carolina and Kentucky goes here even though the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt straight-up. The Wildcats have more fans, but the Chick-fil-A folks would need to consider Vanderbilt's bowl drought and whether Ole Miss would be more likely to fill its allotment. Complicating matters is the Liberty badly wants UK and at this level, the bowls tend to work with each other behind the scenes for the best fit. If Kentucky ends up in Atlanta, read the end of the above passage on LSU, grab yourself a copy of the ACC standings and start throwing darts. If Kentucky gets passed over here, the buck will stop at the Liberty Bowl, where Kentucky will face the champion of Conference USA. While that would most likely be East Carolina, Houston, Rice or Tulsa, also in the mix are UTEP, Memphis, Marshall and Southern Miss. Should Kentucky lose to Tennessee and finish 6-6, that opens up the Music City Bowl (for a third straight year, no less) and Kentucky would get one of those same 10 ACC schools that can't quit losing upset games and complicating this discussion needlessly.

Vanderbilt- The smart money is on Vandy finishing 6-6, but the Commodores have two winnable games left against Tennessee and Wake Forest. If Vanderbilt wins both and gets some help from Clemson against South Carolina, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see the Commodores in the Outback Bowl against either Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa or Northwestern. If Vanderbilt splits its last two games, the Chick-fil-A is a 50/50 shot depending on what happens to Kentucky and Ole Miss, and whether that bowl's representatives want to take a chance on the team with arguably the SEC's smallest fan base. The wild card here, of course, is the fact that the Commodores haven't been bowling since Reagan was president. At 8-4, Vandy will fall no farther than Atlanta. At 7-5, the Liberty is a possibility against a CUSA team, or even the Music City Bowl. At 6-6, Vanderbilt is probably locked into the Music City, which would be a horrible irony: Qualify for a bowl game, but it's literally five minutes away from campus -- and it could be a rematch against Wake Forest to boot. The fate of the SEC West teams also comes into play here, especially Arkansas and Auburn. If either of those teams gets to 6-6 and Vandy also ends up 6-6, the Commodores probably end up in Shreveport against Kansas, Colorado, Louisiana-Lafayette, Bowling Green or Akron. If both Auburn and Arkansas get bowl-eligible, the Commodores could fall to Birmingham -- the site of its last bowl trip. In the Papajohns.com Bowl, Vanderbilt would face a Big East team. And in the ultimate irony, if both Auburn and Arkansas get bowl-eligible and the SEC fails to field two BCS teams, Vanderbilt could be on the outside looking in. But the Commodores would almost certainly land in a bowl anyway, with the most likely destinations being the Texas Bowl, the Hawaii Bowl, the Poinsettia Bowl or maybe even as an at-large team in the Independence.

Ole Miss- The Rebels have typically had poor luck drawing a good bowl, as bowls have frequently bypassed them to get teams of equal, or sometimes even lesser pedigree or record (Independence Bowl 2001, anyone?). But Ole Miss can solidify its position simply by beating a bad Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl at season's end. Doing so, even with a loss to LSU, would put Ole Miss into the discussion for the Chick-fil-A, Liberty and Music City Bowls. Winning both its last two games elevates Ole Miss perhaps into the Cotton, especially if LSU goes 7-5 or the Cotton believes disgusted LSU fans won't travel. The Liberty is in Oxford's back yard and would be a natural fit, but a lot depends on Vanderbilt. There will be a sentimental push to get Vandy not just into a bowl, but away from Nashville, meaning no Music City. If the Commodores end up 7-5, it's a virtual certainty. If Ole Miss ends up 6-6, the Rebels will likely be the last team placed regardless of the scenarios, even including Arkansas getting to the 6-6 mark. If Ole Miss finishes 7-5 and so does Kentucky and Vanderbilt, look for the Rebels to end up in Nashville. If Ole Miss ends up 7-5 and Vandy 6-6, look for the Rebels' final destination to be Memphis; if Kentucky also finishes 6-6, Ole Miss goes to the Chick-fil-A. For potential matchups, see the above discussions.