News Article: SEC preview and predictions – Week 14

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 14
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 24, 2008

Last week’s record: 2-2 (50.0%)
Season record: 65-23 (73.9%)

The last week of the SEC regular season brings with it a host of rivalry games and several contenders for upset special of the week. Alabama, of course, hosts Auburn in a game that is big in so many ways. Florida has Florida State, and when was the last time both the UA-AU and UF-FSU games were considered locks for one team or another in the same season? Enjoy the last week of the regular season.


FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE
It will be interesting to see whether the Gators get caught looking past their biggest rival – or whether Florida State can take advantage of the situation. Like Alabama against Auburn, Florida is faced with a rival team that isn’t as good, but would still like nothing better than to screw up their big brother’s dance card. The difference between Auburn and Florida State is that the Seminoles actually have weapons, and have been beating good teams as of late. FSU is 3-2 in its last five games, with close losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College and wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson and a thrashing of Maryland. Florida State is improving, but the Seminoles still figure to be a year away from beating teams like Florida. Regardless, Florida State has good defensive numbers and can run the football, which if you’re going after a SEC team is a good combination of traits to have. Look for a close game until the end.
Florida 31
Florida State 20

AUBURN at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA

Georgia hasn’t played a complete game since taking a whipping from Alabama, and the Bulldogs’ defense isn’t particularly disciplined. Therefore, they’re primed for an upset from Georgia Tech, which plays disciplined defense and can basically run the ball at will. Tech’s major issue is the fact the Yellow Jackets haven’t played two consecutive good games all year. Their last game was a 41-23 smashing of Miami, so unfortunately that means Georgia might be a return-to-earth game for the Ramblin’ Wreck. This game is our week’s “upset special,” and it’s really hard not to pick it. But look for the Bulldogs to somehow stumble to a win in this game due to talent differential and home-field advantage.
Georgia 27
Georgia Tech 24

KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE
The Vols have one game under Phil Fulmer and are coming off a dandy defensive performance against Vanderbilt. But the offense is still broken, and Kentucky has a lot more firepower than did the Commodores. Kentucky is also playing for a better bowl slot, perhaps even the Chick-fil-A bowl if everything falls its way. Like last week’s game, Tennessee clearly has the most talent, but it’s not always about that and Kentucky is hungry for a rare win against its closest SEC rival. Look for the Wildcats to take advantage of a key UT mistake or two on the road to winning this game – which would be an upset, despite the two teams’ respective records.
Kentucky 21
Tennessee 20

SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON
Clemson is improving as the season comes to a close, but South Carolina is regressing, particularly on defense. Of its last four games, only a 27-6 win over Tennessee found the Gamecocks showing anything on that side of the ball. South Carolina is suddenly having trouble stopping the run, and the clock-cleaning the Cocks received from Florida two weeks ago was shocking in its scope. Clemson beat a physical Virginia team 13-3 this past week, so it’s advantage: South Carolina in terms of who is better-rested. This could be the game that determines interim Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney’s future. If he beats Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks, he just might hold onto the job. But if South Carolina wins – particularly by a wide margin – his status will be in doubt. The problem with Clemson right now is that its offense is too finesse to take advantage of South Carolina’s defensive shortcomings. South Carolina ranks 2nd nationally against the pass, which is Swinney’s preferred mode of moving the ball. Too many things work against Clemson here.
South Carolina 24
Clemson 17


VANDERBILT at WAKE FOREST
First offense to score wins this game. Vanderbilt scored no offensive touchdowns against Tennessee last week; Wake Forest scored one, and it was from the 1-yard line following a blocked punt. The Demon Deacons are backsliding at the moment, losers of five of its last seven, with one of the two wins coming in overtime against Duke. Vanderbilt is playing for a better bowl – meaning, a road trip, because if the Commodores lose here, especially if Kentucky wins in Knoxville, Vandy’s bowl “trip” will be down Broadway and over the river to the Titans’ home stadium. This one’s as much a tossup as any game this weekend, and it’s made worse by the fact that both teams are floundering and Vandy has a quarterback controversy going on for good measure. We’ll take the Commodores just for the heck of it.
Vanderbilt 20
Wake Forest 17


LOUISIANA STATE at ARKANSAS (Little Rock, Ark.)
You couldn’t get much worse than LSU’s performance last week against Ole Miss – unless it was Arkansas’ against Mississippi State. The Razorbacks lost to a much worse team than the one LSU did, and to make matters worse, the loss to the Bulldogs jettisoned the Hogs from the bowl discussion. LSU may very well have lost the Cotton Bowl Saturday against the Rebels, so neither team really wants to be here. If LSU will commit to running the football, the Tigers will win. Arkansas can’t stop anything, but the Razorbacks can score points. It’s imperative that whoever plays quarterback for LSU minimizes turnovers. If LSU can protect the football, Arkansas will likely put itself behind the 8-ball.
LSU 30
Arkansas 24

MISSISSIPPI STATE at MISSISSIPPI
The Bulldogs got a surprise last week against Arkansas, and could finish a decent 5-7 with an upset win here in the Egg Bowl. But Ole Miss has bigger things to play for. The Rebels are looking at a Cotton Bowl appearance with a win in Oxford. There is nothing the Bulldogs are better at than Ole Miss aside from pass defense, and the problem there is that Tyson Lee probably can’t make the Rebels pay for that shortcoming. Ole Miss, on the other hand, can run it down Mississippi State’s throats, and that’s what is likely to occur. Sylvester Croom has been good in the Egg Bowl so far in his career, but momentum – not to mention talent – is against him here.
Ole Miss 27
Mississippi St. 17