News Article: Auburn preview: Alabama has to break the streak – now

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Auburn preview: Alabama has to break the streak – now
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 24, 2008

Alabama depth chart for Auburn game

Forget the talk about how this wasn’t supposed to be Alabama’s year, how the Crimson Tide has overachieved, how the big prize comes in a week when Alabama plays for a conference championship.

While those things are all true, it doesn’t touch on just how much of a disaster it would be to ruin a legitimate shot at a national title by losing a seventh straight game to Auburn University.

Alabama is 0-6 in its last six against the Tigers, and each of the six losses – beginning with a 2002 shocker in Tuscaloosa that many Alabama fans to this day believe was a game thrown by former coach Dennis Franchione as a way to mitigate the uproar of leaving Alabama for Texas A&M a few weeks later – have their own storylines.

The 2003 game was a matchup between two mediocre-to-bad teams, but Auburn had the home-field advantage and managed to get out in front of Alabama and then just keep pace. The 2004 Auburn team, by all rights, should have destroyed Alabama, but the Tide gamely hung in for a half before wilting. The 2005 game in Auburn should have been Alabama’s, but a pitiful performance by Alabama’s offensive line and its offensive coaching staff, which never adjusted, left quarterback Brodie Croyle battered and beaten, and the Tide physically manhandled.

The 2006 loss in Tuscaloosa was much of the same. Mike Shula was a lame duck then, and Alabama played with the same lackadaisical pace that haunted it in 2005. Inexplicably, that same ho-hum attitude showed up again last year in Auburn, despite Nick Saban taking over at the helm.

It’s a safe bet that attitude won’t be a problem for Alabama this time around. The Tide knows what’s at stake and the losing streak seems to have run its course. This year, Alabama has the home field, is the much better team and Nick Saban isn’t leaving for Texas A&M next month. Alabama is playing for a national championship; Auburn is playing to extend the streak and qualify for a trip to Shreveport.

If Alabama doesn’t like dealing with pressure – too bad. There is plenty of pressure here, and this game is as important as any three games Alabama has already played added together. Given that Auburn is in a state of flux offensively and its head coach may very well be let go at the end of the year, Alabama has no excuse to do anything but win this game and win it by a decent margin.

OFFENSE

When someone comes up for a name for Auburn’s offense, it will be repeated here. Until such time, it’s just a royal mess. It started the season as a version of the passing spread attack erstwhile offensive coordinator Tony Franklin has been selling to high schools across the country for years. When it became clear that Auburn didn’t have the talent to run it – nor the commitment from its head coach to sell out to its ideals – Auburn fired Franklin, elevated Steve Ensminger and Hugh Nall to some kind of co-offensive coordinator role and began dumping more and more of the spread in favor of a traditional attack. Auburn’s offense now best resembles Mississippi State’s – some spread, some West Coast from former coordinator Al Borges’ regime, some I-based pro set. Alabama counters with its hybrid pro-set attack that isn’t explosive so much as it simply controls games.


QUARTERBACKS
Kodi Burns is 100th nationally in passing efficiency and 11th in the SEC in that stat. Burns simply wasn’t ready yet for the SEC, but has been thrust into the position after junior college transfer Chris Todd underwhelmed as the starter for the first third of the year, then was benched for a combination of performance and health issues. Burns’ greatest attribute is his feet. He’s the team’s second-leading rusher with 405 yards on 86 carries (4.7 avg.) and 5 touchdowns, which includes yardage lost to sacks. Passing-wise, he and Todd now have literally identical numbers: Burns is 85-of-156 (54.5%) for 937 yards; Todd was 86-of-156 (55.1%) for 903 yards. The difference is in TD-to-INT ratio; Todd threw 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while Burns has thrown just 2 touchdowns but 7 picks. While Burns offers more of a threat due to his scrambling ability, he doesn’t manage games well and complicated coverages – which he’ll face in spades against Alabama – seem to confuse him. Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, whose steadiness has been his greatest attribute in 2008. A good day passing could send him over the 2,000-yard mark for the year. As for the backups, Neil Caudle is actually Burns’ top backup at the moment. He was 4-of-5 (80.0%) for 32 yards against Tennessee-Martin, his only action of the year. Caudle is a dropback passer with limited mobility, and like Todd, a history of injury. Alabama’s Greg McElroy is better than Caudle, probably better than Todd and may be better than even Burns. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Both teams have a good stable of backs. Auburn’s Ben Tate (155 carries, 652 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TD) is the Tigers’ “big” back, a between-the-tackles pounder who doesn’t break many but can wear down a defense. Auburn used Mario Fannin (46, 210, 4.6, 1) more against Georgia and he’ll get a lot of action against Alabama. He’s a slasher-type back with good speed, but has a problem hanging onto the ball. Also available is veteran Brad Lester (74, 278, 3.8, 2), who has had a subpar season. Eric Smith and Tristan Davis add depth. All three of the top backs are weapons as receivers, particularly Fannin, who spent a lot of time this year at wideout. Alabama counters with Glen Coffee (179 carries, 1,091 yards, 6.1 avg., 8 TD) who has quietly put together an all-SEC-type year. Mark Ingram (112, 617, 5.5, 9) has given Alabama an A+ option off the bench. Roy Upchurch (56, 335, 6.0, 4) is finally healthy after missing the last two games. He’s Alabama’s third-down specialist and also gets reps at fullback. Baron Huber will also play some fullback for Alabama in short-yardage situations; Auburn, on the other hand, has no fullback beyond little-used John Douglas and Ryan Hastie. For Alabama, Terry Grant is also available. Depth is basically a push between the two teams, but if Alabama has Upchurch back at 100 percent, he’ll give Alabama options that Auburn doesn’t have. This one is close. Advantage: Alabama


WIDE RECEIVERS
Auburn wide receivers have four touchdowns – four – this year. The other three passing TDs have gone to running backs. Still, the Tigers have a lot of numbers at this position, which was looked at as being a position group with potential in the preseason. While Auburn has some good players here, breakout plays have been limited. The most consistent of the bunch is probably Rodgeriqus Smith, who has hauled in 28 passes for 293 yards (10.5 avg.) and 1 touchdown. The next two receivers, Montez Billings (23, 268, 11.7, 0) and Robert Dunn (17, 183, 10.8, 2) have more big-play ability but also tend to drop passes. They are veterans, though; Dunn and Smith are seniors and Billings is a junior. Auburn’s other consistent threat, tight end Tommy Trott, will miss this game, leaving his position up to Tim Hawthorne (8, 203, 25.4, 0) and Gabe McKenzie (2, 27, 13.5, 0), who started out the year at defensive end. Quindarius Carr and Charles Olatunji add depth along with Chris Slaughter (15, 179, 11.9, 1), arguably Auburn’s best deep threat, and Terrell Zachary and Derek Winter. Alabama counters with Julio Jones (43 catches, 687 yards, 16.0 avg., 4 TD), who has become perhaps the conference’s best pure wide receiver in 2008. Jones makes plays downfield and also close to the line, where his superior strength leads to large numbers of yards after the catch. Alabama’s problem has been finding someone to complement him. Mike McCoy might have lost his starting job after dropping a sure touchdown bomb against Mississippi State, but McCoy’s downfield blocking ability in the running game is hard to miss. Nikita Stover has become Alabama’s third receiver as of late, jumping over Marquis Maze, but the real name to watch here may be Darius Hanks (4, 52, 13.0, 0), who missed the first two-thirds of the year but has come off the bench lately to become a key part of the rotation. He played ahead of McCoy for much of the second half of the Mississippi State game. Earl Alexander and B.J. Scott round out the depth. Will Oakley will miss this game after surgery, meaning Chris Jackson or even Brandon Gibson could be called on in a pinch. Tight ends Nick Walker (25 catches, 256 yards, 10.2 avg., 2 TD) and Travis McCall (6, 43, 7.2, 0) have been active in the passing game all year, along with Brad Smelley. Those three plus Preston Dial will play a lot Saturday. This one is pretty close given the experience advantage for Auburn, but Trott’s absence leaves a void at tight end and the lack of downfield production gives Alabama a slid edge here. If Hanks continues to emerge it could get bigger. Advantage: Alabama


OFFENSIVE LINE
Auburn began the year with a veteran offensive line that was supposed to take control of games and make the implementation of the spread offense easier. It didn’t work out that way. Guard Chaz Ramsey quit the team, and the rest of the line has been shuffled and reshuffled so often that it’s been hard to develop a rhythm. On top of that, guard Tyrone Green has underachieved. Green still has a starting spot across from Mike Berry, who stepped in to take Ramsey’s place. Ryan Pugh, who started the year at center, is now at tackle opposite Lee Ziemba, a talented sophomore but one who tends to attract holding penalties. Jason Bosley gets the call at center. Jared Cooper and Bart Eddins add depth along with Byron Isom and Andrew McCain. Alabama counters with a group that has become the undisputed best in the SEC. Andre Smith and Drew Davis anchor the tackle slots with Antoine Caldwell at center, flanked by guards Marlon Davis and Michael Johnson. John Michael Boswell will back up both tackle slots, while David Ross, William Vlachos, Brian Motley and Taylor Pharr add depth. Auburn is starting to play better the last couple of weeks, but Alabama has all the momentum and has been better up the middle. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSE

Auburn’s 4-3 defense has always made a priority of rushing the passer from outside. But the Tigers are just 61st in sacks this year, to go along with mediocre numbers of 45th against the run, 26th against the pass and 30th in pass efficiency defense – all in the bottom half of the conference. Auburn is still getting accustomed to new coordinator Paul Rhoads, but the Tigers have nonetheless managed to grab a ranking of 10th in scoring defense, third-best in the SEC. The strength of the defense is up the middle. Alabama counters with its 3-4 over/under scheme, which has become almost impenetrable up front and a turnover machine downfield. Alabama ranks 3rd in total defense, 3rd against the run, 7th in pass efficiency defense and 6th in scoring defense. Only Alabama’s raw pass defense ranking – 27th – is subpar, but while Alabama gives up yards through the air during the course of a game, it rarely gives up big plays.

DEFENSIVE LINE
For whatever reason, Auburn’s 2008 defensive line hasn’t measured up to recent years. There’s no doubting the talent of Sen’Derrick Marks, who can play either end or tackle and is a quicker version of Alabama’s Lorenzo Washington. The middle of the defense is strong and deep; next to Marks, Tez Doolittle gets the start, but Jake Ricks, Mike Blanc and Zach Clayton will play enough where it won’t matter who gets the starting call. The defensive end slots are another matter. Antonio Coleman is clearly the team’s leading playmaker – 10 tackles for loss and 6 sacks – but he’s doing it alone. Michael Goggans hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of former starters there, going sack-less on the year and getting just 2 tackles for losses. Antoine Carter has been very effective off the bench as a pass rusher, but isn’t the best against the run. Auburn’s starting line is too situational in nature to contain power rushing attacks well. Depth is now also a factor on the outside with McKenzie moving to tight end to replace Trott. Unless McKenzie plays both ways, there are no other defensive linemen on the roster with any game experience or tackles. Alabama counters with a unit that has been tough to handle in 2008. Terrence Cody bolsters the middle along with Josh Chapman and Marcel Dareus. Coming from the ends, Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick start with Lorenzo Washington, Luther Davis and Milton Talbert rotating. Nick Gentry adds depth. Alabama has better depth outside, but perhaps the best attribute the Tide has is that it isn’t at a disadvantage against the run when its most accomplished pass-rushing linemen are in the game. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Alabama’s inside backers, especially Rolando McClain, have few equals in the conference. McClain, along with Dont’a Hightower and Prince Hall, share the two inside slots and have been making ears ring all season. The outside backers have been solid, but not quite up to the level of McClain and Co. Brandon Fanney mans the Jack linebacker slot and has developed into a stalwart. But Alabama has the same problem at outside linebacker that Auburn does at defensive end: The starter, in this case Cory Reamer, has proven to be more effective in some situations and not so much in others. Reamer has overachieved his way to a very good season, but isn’t an every-down player. Depth outside is also a little sketchy, with Eryk Anders and Courtney Upshaw playing mainly as situational pass rushers in place of Fanney. Jerrell Harris backs up Reamer at strongside backer, but doesn’t play much. Auburn counters with a group that has done surprising well given that Tray Blackmon, seemingly a NFL shoo-in at middle linebacker, won’t play in this game and may be done as a college player altogether for reasons not publicized by the Auburn staff. It hasn’t mattered much, though, as Josh Bynes has stepped in admirably. He is flanked by Chris Evans and Craig Stevens, two steady players who have good speed off the edge and can play in space. Sacks have been slow to come by – the starting trio has zero – but Bynes has three interceptions and all three can cover. Merrill Johnson, Spencer Pybus and Courtney Harden give Auburn good numbers off the bench. Johnson, in particular, has been active as a pass rusher. Both teams’ units are far better than the league average, but Auburn has better depth and a clear edge at the outside spots. Advantage: Auburn


DEFENSIVE BACKS
This was supposed to be the weakness of the Auburn defense – particularly after cornerback Aairon Savage was lost to a knee injury in the preseason – but it hasn’t worked out that way. Jerraud Powers and Walter McFadden have been solid at the corners, while the safety duo of Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil has shown a lot of promise as headhunters up the middle. McNeil and Etheridge, however, do most of their headhunting against the run; Etheridge has 1 interception while McNeil has failed to nab one. They’ve combined to break up just 5 passes. Powers, McFadden and Neiko Thorpe have been more productive at corner, however. D’Antoine Hood, like Thorpe a freshman, also plays plenty of minutes. Mike Slade and Jonathan Vickers provide depth. Alabama counters with Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson and Marquis Johnson at the corners and Justin Woodall, Rashad Johnson and Ali Sharrief at the safeties. As this group has gotten more comfortable as the season has progressed, they’re now beginning to change games. Alabama disguises coverages better than Auburn and Alabama’s safeties are better both against the run (although Auburn isn’t bad) and on quarterback blitz plays. Auburn has overachieved but Alabama is simply better. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Tiger placekicker Wes Byrum may be out for this game. That said, the rest of Auburn’s special teams have been solid. Punter Clinton Durst, a freshman, is averaging 42 yards per punt and is as good as many veterans at pinning opponents inside the 20 and inducing fair catches. Auburn ranks 16th in net punting, but it’s the return game, where the Tigers are 14th in punt returns and 4th in kickoff returns, where the Tigers can really do damage. That’s not good news for Alabama, whose coverage teams have struggled at times this year – although Alabama has improved in those areas the last few weeks. For the Tide, Leigh Tiffin followed a bad LSU game with a solid Mississippi State game, and punter P.J. Fitzgerald is at least Durst’s equal. The presence of Javier Arenas, particularly on punt returns, can’t be ignored, but Alabama’s kickoff return team this year has been a tick short of abysmal. That leaves the Auburn placekicking position – where freshman Morgan Hull, who has attempted only kickoffs this year aside from one extra point, would replace Byrum – as one of the keys in this matchup. The bigger key, though, is Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville. Special teams are his baby and Auburn figures to pull out all the stops in this one, which could include fakery and who knows what else. If Tiffin had been more consistent this year, Alabama might get the nod, but Auburn is beating Alabama in the other areas and Tuberville is a superior tactician in this category. Advantage: Auburn

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Auburn in two. Three categories – special teams, running back and wide receiver – could go either way, and aside from quarterback, there really isn’t any place where one team just dominates the other.

As for line matchups, Alabama wins both by a comfortable, but not dominating margin.

The big thing going into this game is mindset. Alabama is the better team, but the history of the six-year streak will have an effect, not to mention what’s going on in the innerworkings of the Auburn program that might affect the Tigers’ emotional state. And Auburn is, after all, still playing for the postseason.

But if you try to figure the intangibles out, you’ll get caught up in things that either don’t matter, may not matter, or will matter and can’t be quantified. So just treat this like any Alabama-Auburn preview: Expect the final outcome to be closer than it should be, but for the best team to win. And the best team is, without a doubt, Alabama.

Alabama 24
Auburn 14