Blog: Wild guesses at bowl game destinations

JessN · November 26th, 2008, 09:40 AM

Wild guesses at bowl game destinations
November 20th, 2008 06:20 AM

When I had to post a recent breakdown of the SEC bowl picture as an article rather than a blog -- since it was was 2,890 characters too long for our blog software -- I knew I was in for trouble.

You can read the official story here:

News Article: SEC's, Bama's bowl picture shaping up - TideFans.com

The SEC's bowl picture right now is about as predictable as cow-chip bingo: Lots of crap, and no one knows where it's all going to land.

Here's my best guess on the postseason right now:

BCS Championship Game & Sugar Bowl: Alabama, Florida
I'm going to hedge for right now at picking the winner of the SEC Championship Game. Obviously, with two teams in the BCS and Alabama in the mix for the big prize, I feel my preseason pick of Alabama over Auburn is going to hold up.

As for the opponent, I like the winner of the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game. Even though Texas beat Oklahoma in the regular season, I don't see Texas remaining above the Sooners if Oklahoma beats both Tech and then Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game. If Oklahoma falters against Oklahoma State in a week, I like Texas for the game. I don't see USC getting back into the picture.

Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan State
Even though the Big Ten is down this year, Michigan State is a very good team and this represents a bad matchup for Georgia. The Spartans are Alabama Lite. They're physical, but they also have good talent at the skill positions.

The only question in my mind is whether MSU could shut down Georgia's offense. This one has all the look of an upset, because Georgia would certainly be favored here. The Capital One always seems to field a smashmouth team from the Big Ten and this year is no different.

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Northwestern
This one has all the makings of a game no one will watch. Iowa is also in the mix for this bowl from the Big 10 side but all Northwestern has to do is beat a struggling Illinois team and they're in.

What would make this matchup a lot better is if Vanderbilt wins out and gets picked instead of the Gamecocks, which would allow the SEC and the Big Ten to bill this as the Scholar's Bowl and stage a math-off at halftime.

Cotton Bowl: LSU vs. Texas
LSU is seen as toxic right now given how far short of expectations the Tigers fell. If Ole Miss beats LSU this week and then wins over Mississippi State, which is expected, the Rebels will not only match our TideFans/NARCAS preseason 8-4 pick but will probably get the Cotton Bowl bid. LSU likely won't travel well this year after such a letdown from the past couple of seasons.

However, it likely won't matter in regards to who wins this game -- Texas will smoke either team in a bad way. Final prediction, though, is for LSU to hold on to beat Ole Miss and wrap this bid up.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Kentucky vs. Florida State
The Chick-fil-A folks usually get a strong SEC team and a not-so-strong ACC team; this year, the roles are reversed. No matter who shows up here from the SEC side -- whether it's Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina or Ole Miss -- they're likely to be playing the role of the underdog.

The only exception would be if LSU gets knocked out of the Cotton by Ole Miss, at which point the CFAB could pit LSU and Florida State against one another in a battle of disappointments. Picking FSU is just a shot in the dark; nine other ACC teams are in the running. As for Kentucky, the Wildcats seem the most likely pick here, so long as Vandy goes 6-6, due to the Wildcats' superior fan base traveling tendencies. But the Wildcats need to beat Tennessee first.

Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Tulsa
What everyone hopes to avoid is a rematch of Vanderbilt-Wake Forest just more than a month after the original game is played. That alone may be enough to force the SEC to place Vanderbilt here instead of the Music City Bowl. Vandy can ensure being able to go out of town for its bowl game by beating either Tennessee or Wake.

If it ends up in the Liberty, it will get Conference USA's champion, which is likely to be the winner of either East Carolina-Tulsa or East Carolina-Houston. If Houston beats Rice this weekend, the Cougars will most likely get to face the Pirates for the title and Tulsa would be bounced to a lower bowl. A Vandy-Tulsa matchup pits strength vs. strength (Tulsa passing offense vs. Vanderbilt secondary) and weakness vs. weakness (Vandy offense vs. Tulsa defense) and would be reasonably entertaining. Just seeing Vanderbilt in a bowl, any bowl, is going to be reasonably entertaining.

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Virginia Tech
Just as bowl organizers don't want to see Vandy-Wake Forest for a second time, the same applies to a Wake vs. Ole Miss matchup, which would repeat the Sept. 6 game between the two teams. It's amazing to think that Virginia Tech could slip this far, but the reality is the Hokies might not get this high.

The MCB takes the ACC's 5/6/7 slotted team, which is where Wake, Virginia Tech and Florida State will likely end up along with either North Carolina or Boston College. An Ole Miss-Virginia Tech matchup would sort of be a lighter-weight version of an Alabama/Michigan State matchup in the Capital One Bowl, something Alabama fans hope doesn't come to pass. Look for Ole Miss to win this one if it happens.

Missing the postseason: Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Tennessee and Mississippi State are already out. Auburn is out unless the Tigers can upset Alabama, and I don't see that happening.

That leaves Arkansas, which will probably beat Mississippi State this weekend and set up a one-game-for-all-the-marbles scenario with LSU the final week. LSU's offense has some kind of terminal ailment right now, and many observers are just waiting until it finally croaks. If the Tigers lose against Ole Miss, all bets are off against Arkansas and the Razorbacks might sneak in.

If they do, they'll most likely end up in Shreveport unless the conference pushes them for the Music City in order to help get a 6-6 Vandy team out of town for once. Whoever ends up in Shreveport could very well end up facing Louisiana-Lafayette as a substitute for a Big 12 slot that won't be filled. It seems the only way the Big 12 will have enough teams is if Colorado upsets Nebraska to finish its season. If it does -- and if Kansas loses, as expected, to Missouri -- both will finish 6-6. At that point, look for Shreveport to opt for Kansas to avoid a repeat trip from the Buffaloes. And if it is indeed Kansas that makes the trip, the Jayhawks would likely trounce Arkansas.

Check back next week for updates.

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