Blog: Bowl picture clears up

[JessN]

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Bowl picture clears up
November 30th, 2008 08:13 PM

This blog is starting to develop a flavor similar to the "Saw" horror movie series for some, I'm sure. Here's the last -- I promise -- bowl projection post before invitations are actually handed out and I have to actually review the matchups.

Alabama/Florida: Georgia's loss locked Alabama into a BCS bowl Saturday before the outcome of the Auburn game was ever even close to being decided. Once Florida beat Florida State and Alabama pummeled Auburn, it locked the loser of this game into the Sugar and the winner into the BCS Championship Game. The participant in the Sugar will likely get Utah, while the winner of the SEC Championship Game stands about a 99 percent chance of getting Oklahoma or Texas, with only Southern Cal remaining in the picture. And if Southern Cal is to elevate itself into the title game, it would take a huge voter reversal in the final poll.

Georgia: Conventional wisdom says 9-3 Georgia stays ahead of 8-4 Ole Miss in the pecking order, even though if the two were to meet right now I'd pick Ole Miss to win it. If Georgia stays where it is, the Bulldogs will get the Capital One Bowl versus Michigan State. The Spartans are much like Alabama and Ole Miss, but with a lot less speed -- a physical team with a Nick Saban disciple as head coach. Georgia is a mess, but the Bulldogs seem to be able to do a mental reset once bowl season rolls around. This one could go either way, including being a blowout either way.

Ole Miss: The Rebels will fall to the Cotton against Texas Tech unless Missouri beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. At that point, they'd get Oklahoma. Either team is a bad match for the Rebels due to Ole Miss' weak secondary. Texas Tech, at least, has proven to be vulnerable to physical teams, so Ole Miss would have a chance to shorten the game and perhaps steal one there. If the Rebels end up with Oklahoma -- and if the Sooners land here, it would be because they had been upset and likely quite ticked off about it -- Ole Miss could get smoked.

LSU: With South Carolina also falling like a rock lately, the Outback Bowl is a possibility for LSU against Iowa or Northwestern. But the most likely destination is the Chick-fil-A against an ACC team, which could very well be Georgia Tech. Unless LSU develops some defensive discipline overnight, the Tigers run the risk of duplicating Georgia's dubious feat and getting waylaid by the Yellow Jackets. There might be a push to send Georgia Tech elsewhere, though, given that the Chick-fil-A wouldn't represent a real bowl "trip," and if that happens, the Chick-fil-A opponent would probably switch to the loser of the Boston College-Virginia Tech matchup in the ACC Championship Game. Either of those teams would be a better matchup for LSU.

South Carolina: It looks like the Gamecocks will back into a very good bowl slot, the Outback, by default. In this matchup, they'll get either Iowa or Northwestern. Northwestern would present the easier matchup for USC, given that Northwestern's offensive scheme would play right into South Carolina's hands. Iowa overachieved this year relative to its talent, but the Hawkeyes are more physical and South Carolina's front seven on defense has had problems at times this year containing such teams. The biggest question is how many empty seats will be in this stadium, particularly if small-crowd Northwestern gets the nod out of the Big Ten.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores actually finished third in the SEC East this year when all was said and done, while Kentucky, by its league record, finished dead last. If the Liberty Bowl goes by this pecking order to select its representative, Vanderbilt should get it despite Kentucky having a larger fan base and a more dynamic team. Whoever gets this bid will end up with the winner of Tulsa-East Carolina, and if it's Tulsa, as expected, things might not be pretty. Arkansas narrowly escaped being beaten by Tulsa in the regular season, and Arkansas actually has an offense. Neither Kentucky nor Vanderbilt does at the moment, and either would be an underdog in this game.

Kentucky: Assuming the Liberty follows protocol and picks Vanderbilt, Kentucky will end up in Nashville. It's a good fit for Kentucky and Music City Bowl officials seem to like the Wildcats. One of five different ACC teams will end up here: Maryland, Wake Forest, Clemson, North Carolina or Miami. The most likely selections would be North Carolina or Miami, and other analysts are projecting the Tarheels for the slot.

That would likely lead to the SEC capping off one of its worst bowl records in years, as few SEC teams would be favored in these matchups. The SEC winner should win the BCS National Championship Game based on defense alone, although the sexier offenses of the Big 12 will probably lead bettors to a different conclusion beforehand. The Sugar Bowl representative will absolutely be favored over Utah, and Georgia will probably get the nod over the Big Ten representative in the Cap One. The rest all look like dangerous, ill-fitting matchups for SEC teams.

Check back later in the week, when we'll talk recruiting for a bit.


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