News Article: SEC Championship Game preview: Alabama might have surprise in store for Gators

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SEC Championship Game preview: Alabama might have surprise in store for Gators
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Dec. 1, 2008

For weeks it seems, all Alabama has heard about is Florida.

Florida is the best team in the SEC. Florida’s offense can’t be stopped. Florida should be ranked No. 1, not Alabama. Florida’s offense will be too much for Alabama. Florida would beat Alabama by 50 any day of its choosing. Florida’s Tim Tebow throws passes sprinkled with pixie dust and his ankles have wings attached, given to him as a gift by Mercury himself.

In the meantime, all Alabama has done is win, which is something Florida didn’t do. Florida lost on Sept. 27 to Ole Miss, 31-30, a team Alabama later beat 24-20. National pundits, however, seem to have forgiven Florida this minor lapse.

What is said no longer matters, though, as Florida and Alabama will settle things on the field Saturday in Atlanta. Alabama’s smash-mouth offense and stingy defense will go up against Florida’s spread-option attack and similarly tough defense. While many overlook it, Florida’s offense – despite being based out of a three-wide, one-back look – is actually a fairly power-oriented offense in its own right. This won’t be a battle of strength versus finesse as much as it will be a clash of old philosophy versus new.

While the country will be busy arguing over the BCS system and whether it is doing the right thing by the Big 12, it is at least refreshing to know that, inarguably, the SEC’s two best teams will face off in Atlanta for the right to be called the conference’s champion.

OFFENSE

Florida runs the purest form of spread-option used at any NCAA school – fitting, of course, since one of the system’s co-founders is the Gator head coach, Urban Meyer. Years of superlative recruiting, however, not some magic system, have given Florida the advantage it currently enjoys over its competitors. The Gators attack with weapons at every spot, speed to burn, and a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback directing the whole thing. There isn’t a weakness to be found, although it needs to be noted that the Gators are only 61st in passing offense (versus 10th in rushing offense). The Gators are, however, the nation’s No. 3 scoring offense. Alabama counters with its hybrid pro-set attack, which against Auburn, stuck its thumb in the collective eye of the nation’s pundits and proved it could be explosive when it needed to be. Alabama doesn’t have Florida’s balance, but is equally capable, if not more so, of taking control of the game’s flow.

QUARTERBACKS
Florida’s Tim Tebow deserves all the accolades afforded him. He is one of the most effective running quarterbacks to ever play the game, his passing goes under-appreciated and his leadership skills are top-notch. For the season, however, Tebow’s raw numbers are a bit average, other than the 25-to-2 TD-to-interception ratio. He’s 160-of-246 (65.0%) for 2,299 yards on the year – a function of Florida’s greater commitment to the run and to the effect of the new clock rules. Tebow’s greatest advantages may be his size and durability. He plays bigger than his listed 6’3”, 235, and seems to be able to take endless hits. Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, who has yet to crack the 2,000-yard barrier – he’ll likely do it this game, as he’s sitting at 1,909 yards on the season – but who has been an effective game manager all season. Wilson isn’t the runner that Tebow is, but he can still scramble when he has to, and can also improvise on the run, as Auburn found out last week when Wilson found Nikita Stover for the touchdown that officially broke the Tigers’ back. If things go to the backups, Alabama has a significant advantage, and not necessarily because the Crimson Tide’s Greg McElroy is all that much better than Florida’s John Brantley. The reason is because Brantley is a pure passer, and if he was to be called into action, Florida’s entire offensive plan would be forced to change drastically. Still, the presence of Tebow can’t be countered from the Alabama side no matter how many backups are counted. Advantage: Florida

RUNNING BACKS
Florida doesn’t have a go-to back; instead, the Gators have no fewer than six backs who have accumulated more than 100 yards on the season, four of them averaging 7.4 yards or more per carry. At the top of the list are Chris Rainey (82 carries, 654 yards, 8.0 avg., 4 TD) and true freshman Jeffrey Demps (55 carries, 529 yards, 9.6 avg., 6 TD). The common thread here is size – a lack of it – and speed. Rainey is the “bigger” back of the two at 5’9”, 165. But neither will be caught from behind by mortal humans. Others in the mix include Emmanuel Moody (53 carries, 394 yards, 7.4 avg., 1 TD), who is Florida’s situational big back, and Kestahn Moore (29 carries, 142 yards, 4.9 avg., 4 TD), a one-time featured back who now plays more of a hybrid fullback role than anything else. The leading rusher in terms of carries is Tebow, who has carried 137 times for 507 yards (3.7 avg.) and 12 touchdowns – great numbers for a quarterback but not quite on the level of last year’s breakout season. The wild card is Percy Harvin (61 carries, 538 yards, 8.8 avg., 9 TD), who plays running back and receiver but who is nursing a badly sprained ankle and may not even play. If he’s out, it will be a big blow to the Florida offense. Alabama counters with Glen Coffee, who has carried 199 times for 1,235 yards (6.2 avg.) and 9 touchdowns on the year, and Mark Ingram, who has carried 127 times for 681 yards (5.4 avg.) and 11 touchdowns, an Alabama freshman record. Alabama would like to think Roy Upchurch (58 carries, 350 yards, 6.0 avg., 4 TD) will be available, but a neck injury makes him doubtful. If he can’t go, Terry Grant or Jeramie Griffin could be called upon to step up. At fullback, Baron Huber and H-back Travis McCall see most of the action, although neither is a runner. Even though Florida has put up some eye-popping per-carry numbers, and has a depth advantage even without Harvin, Alabama’s group may actually be more versatile given their ability to run between the tackles with more consistency. Tebow remains the only Gator back that is consistently reliable in short-yardage. And Alabama has plenty of game-breaking ability here. Advantage: Alabama


WIDE RECEIVERS
If Harvin is available, it will be a big boost to both the running back unit, where he is the team’s second-leading rusher, and the receiver corps, where he leads the team with 35 catches for 595 yards (17.0 avg.) and 7 touchdowns. But if Harvin is out, Florida’s receivers don’t look so superhuman. The next-leading receiver is Louis Murphy, who has caught 32 passes for 525 yards (16.4 avg.) and 6 touchdowns. Where Florida really beats other teams is in depth; six other receivers have caught more than 100 yards in passes, led by Aaron Hernandez (26, 281, 10.8, 5) and true freshman Deonte Thompson (18, 269, 14.9, 3). Carl Moore, Riley Cooper and David Nelson round out the top unit. Hernandez will also play the tight end role, backed up by Tate Casey. Alabama counters with Julio Jones, who actually has the best numbers (46 catches, 723 yards, 15.7 avg., 4 TD) of anyone on either team and, aside from Harvin, is the most dynamic. Alabama’s problem is the opposite of Florida’s: lack of depth. Nikita Stover had a superb game against Auburn, both catching the ball and blocking for running backs, but he has still caught just 5 passes for 86 yards (17.2 avg.) and 1 touchdown all year. Mike McCoy (16, 191, 11.9, 1) has the best numbers of the others, but he has been inconsistent of late and is basically splitting time now with Stover. Darius Hanks continues to emerge, but like Stover, has yet to cross the 100-yard mark on the year. Marquis Maze has crossed that barrier, and displayed great speed against Auburn, but so far this year has not been able to get open on anything but go routes. Earl Alexander and Brad Smelley provide depth. At tight end, Alabama’s Nick Walker and Travis McCall are more than matches for Hernandez and Casey, both as blockers and receivers. If Harvin is available, Florida gets a clear edge. If he is not, or if he is significantly slowed by his injury, it gets a lot closer but still should go to Florida for the simple fact that the Gators have more than one clear option. Advantage: Florida


OFFENSIVE LINE
Florida’s tackle combo of Phil Trautwein and Jason Watkins have been solid, if somewhat overlooked among SEC linemen. They do most things well and don’t have any big weaknesses. The interior three are made up of all sophomores – center Maurkice Pouncey and guards Mike Pouncey and Carl Johnson – although senior Jim Tartt should see plenty of action. Somewhere in this area lies one of the reasons for Florida’s failure to put up comparable numbers to 2007. While there aren’t any major weaknesses to talk about, Florida’s line isn’t as good as the one Alabama will field. Center Antoine Caldwell, left guard Michael Johnson and left tackle Andre Smith have been solid all year, but recently, right guard Marlon Davis and right tackle Drew Davis have really stepped up their games. Depth is a push between the two teams, although Tartt coming off the bench for Florida represents the only bench player on either side with a large amount of previous starting experience. But Alabama has the only two superstars (Caldwell and Smith) and is simply more effective. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Charlie Strong’s 4-3 set at Florida has turned up the heat in pass defense this year, and in the process Florida has gotten the following high marks for itself: 12th in rushing defense, 17th in pass defense, 2nd in pass efficiency defense, 4th in scoring defense and 7th in total defense. The Gators have speed and depth to burn in the back seven. Florida doesn’t do anything trick with its unit; it just uses talent to beat the opposition. Alabama counters with Saban’s famous 3-4 over/under scheme, which has shut down just about every offensive scheme that’s been thrown at it. Only power rushing attacks with big backs have given Alabama even moderate trouble, and Florida doesn’t have that, no disrespect to Tim Tebow. Alabama ranks 20th in pass defense, 2nd in rushing defense, 5th in pass efficiency defense, 3rd in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. It begs the question whether either team will score any points.


DEFENSIVE LINE
If Florida has a weakness on defense, here it is. There are no issues at the ends, where Jermaine Cunningham and Carlos Dunlap have combined for a whopping 21 tackles for loss and 14 sacks. The issue is inside, where talent was a problem at the tackle spots to begin with, and now you can add injury to the mix. Tackle Brandon Antwine may miss this game with a knee injury, which would cut depth further behind starters Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh. Another reserve, Matt Patchan, also has a knee injury and could be out for this one. This will force the Gator coaches to pull some tricks in order to build depth, probably going with Torrey Davis and John Fairbanks for much of the game, but neither is a game-changer. Omar Hunter a true freshman, could be pressed into service, along with Javier Estopinan, who no longer plays the position. As for the ends, Duke Lemmens, Justin Trattou and William Green figure to be the most-used reserves off the bench, but Lemmens is hurt and Jaye Howard could be used instead. Whoever starts at tackle will likely form the two weakest spots on the Gator D. As for Alabama, Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman were terrors against Auburn, as was end Bobby Greenwood. Those three, along with Lorenzo Washington, Brandon Deaderick and Luther Davis and reserves Marcel Dareus and Milton Talbert, have developed into one of the most consistent lines anywhere, and Cody’s star power from the nose tackle slot does as much to get in opposing centers’ heads as anything else. Florida is better off the corner in the pass rush, but the ends are vulnerable to a straight-ahead running game and Alabama’s tackle situation is in much better shape at the moment. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
This is the undisputed strength of the Florida defense, both in terms of the ability of the starters and this unit’s depth. The star of the show is Brandon Spikes, who leads the team with 80 tackles and who has recorded 8 tackles for losses, 2 sacks, 4 interceptions for 93 yards, a pass broken up and 2 quarterback hurries. He is flanked by what could best be termed a collection of talent. Dustin Doe is a regular at one slot, but Lorenzo Edwards, A.J. Jones and Ryan Stamper will all see time at the other. Most worrisome for opposing offenses is that Florida doesn’t rotate players because it has to, it rotates players because it can. John Jones and Lerentee McCray are also in the mix. Alabama counters with Rolando McClain in the middle, whose presence almost cancels out the advantage brought by Spikes. But while Dont’a Hightower, Cory Reamer and Brandon Fanney are quality players, they aren’t quite up to the level of Florida’s supporting cast. Given that Florida might stay in three-wide sets all day, Reamer might not even play much. Hightower brings some star power of his own to this unit, but still tends to make freshman mistakes every now and then. Alabama’s linebackers have overachieved greatly in 2008, but Florida has better numbers and more playmaking ability across the board. Advantage: Florida

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Florida’s secondary might be the most improved single unit of any SEC team. The Gators have picked off a mind-boggling 23 passes in 2008, headed by 6 from strong safety Ahmad Black – who is a starter only because Dorian Munroe tore an ACL before the year began. Major Wright starts next to him, while Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins get the call at the corners. The only real negative to this group is that there is no upperclassman experience among the starters; three are sophomores and Jenkins is a freshman. Depth is good, with Wondy Pierre-Louis, a former starter, coming off the bench at corner and Markihe Anderson and Moses Jenkins available at either corner or safety. True freshman Will Hill has been living up to his recruiting reputation; he’ll back up both safety slots. The one major issue for the Florida safeties will be run support, as Black and Wright are a bit on the small side for SEC safeties. On the flip side, this is not a team to throw against; in addition to its 23 interceptions, the team has recorded 49 pass break-ups. Alabama counters with Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson at the corners and Justin Woodall, Rashad Johnson and Ali Sharrief at the safeties. Alabama is just as capable as Florida at making plays in the passing game, and is better at run support and sniffing out the opposition’s playcalls largely as a result of Rashad Johnson’s expertise. Alabama can also go as deep as Florida if needed here, bringing in Chris Rogers at corner or Mark Barron and Tyrone King Jr. at safety. Alabama’s more veteran makeup also makes a difference here. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Not many people can equal Alabama’s Javier Arenas as a return man, but Florida’s Brandon James can. James ranks 11th in punt returns and 52nd in kickoff returns; Arenas ranks 12th and 75th, respectively. Net punting is solidly a Florida advantage, behind Chas Henry. Florida is 12th in the statistic, while Alabama drags along near the rear of the conference with a ranking of 70th. Kickoff specialist Caleb Sturgis is always a threat to kick a touchback, whereas Alabama’s kickers are not. As for placekicking, Jonathan Phillips is a perfect 10-for-10 on field goals and has made all but one extra point. Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin is good, but not that good. Add in Alabama’s continuing difficulties covering kickoffs effectively, and Florida gets the edge here by a clear amount. Advantage: Florida

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, Florida in four. That’s probably not the breakdown many pundits would have expected to see.

In the line matchups, Alabama takes both, particularly the matchup of the Alabama OL versus the Florida DL. If that holds true on gameday, Alabama should be able to sustain several drives, thereby keeping the high-octane Gator offense grounded on the bench.

When Alabama and Florida are compared against common opponents, the equality of the two teams comes out even more. The two teams played six common opponents, and Florida lost to one of those (Ole Miss). Both teams beat three common opponents by similar margins. It was only against Kentucky – where Alabama was taken to the wire by the Wildcats but the Gators blew them out, albeit after Kentucky had lost several players to season-ending injuries – and against LSU where the Gators won by decidedly greater margins. The margin of the Georgia win was larger in Florida’s case, but Georgia scored two trash-time touchdowns against Alabama to make that blowout a lot closer on the scoreboard than it ever was during the course of the game itself.

The bottom line is that if Florida is expecting to romp over Alabama, it needs to readjust its sights. This figures to be a close game between two teams of fairly comparable strength. In addition, if Alabama does indeed enjoy an advantage in the line matchups come Saturday, this could turn out to be an upset win for the Tide – if it’s even possible for the No. 1 team in the country to really upset anyone in the first place.

While conventional wisdom would say to take Florida, Alabama is not only healthier, the Tide seems to have “it” in 2008, whatever “it” is. Given that an Alabama win would be considered an “upset special” going by Vegas and the pundits, we’ll pick it.

Alabama 24
Florida 21