News Article: Arkansas preview: Hogs’ offense can match Tide blow for blow

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Arkansas preview: Hogs’ offense can match Tide blow for blow
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 23, 2009

For three weeks, Alabama has been preparing for either dynamic quarterbacks, high-powered offensive systems or improving programs trying to assert themselves on the college football landscape. On Saturday, Alabama will get a three-for-one deal.

Arkansas is atop the list of improving programs in the SEC, and its quarterback, Ryan Mallett, currently leads NCAA Division-I in passing efficiency. Head coach Bob Petrino’s offensive system is one of the most innovative in college football.

Unfortunately for Arkansas, the Razorback defense is as porous as its offense is exciting. Arkansas ranks 81st nationally in total defense and 116th in pass efficiency defense, good for next-to-last and last in the SEC in those respective categories. Scoring defense, raw pass defense and rushing defense get similarly troublesome marks.

The big question for Alabama is health. Alabama has not had good injury luck so far in 2009, and two key pieces of the Crimson Tide offense, receiver Julio Jones and running back Roy Upchurch, are slowed by leg injuries. Even though Virginia Tech is a better team overall than Arkansas, the Razorbacks could very well prove to be Alabama’s toughest test so far.

OFFENSE

Arkansas utilizes a three-wide set on almost every snap, and when it doesn’t, it drops into an Ace look similar to Alabama’s and uses one of the deepest tight end rotations in the SEC. Arkansas is 2nd in the nation in both total offense and passing offense, and 8th in scoring offense. Rushing offense, however (ranked 91st), has been lagging – it’s the worst in the SEC, for that matter. Mostly, it’s because Arkansas’ defense has kept the Hogs in a bad position, sending the Razorbacks to the air in order to keep up. Alabama counters with one of the nation’s most balanced offenses, one that ranks 9th overall, 5th in rushing and 36th in passing. It’s the most dynamic offense Alabama has had since the Homer Smith era.

QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s Greg McElroy has had a debut to die for. Over his first three games, the redshirt junior has looked poised, in command and has shown the ability to make all the throws. He’s been virtually unstoppable since the second-half kickoff against Virginia Tech, and has set school records for accuracy in each of the last two games. Unfortunately for McElroy, he’s going up against the SEC’s success story at quarterback in 2009, Ryan Mallett. Mallett is a physical freak (6’7”, 240 pounds) who has completed 62 percent of his passes, thrown for 717 yards, 6 touchdowns and has yet to be intercepted. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with an eye-popping score of 193.49. Behind both players are freshmen; Alabama has Star Jackson, while Arkansas boasts Tyler Wilson. Both had similar debuts against overmatched opponents. Alabama has an ever-so-slight advantage in overall depth due to the presence of Thomas Darrah, but if this game gets down to Darrah’s level for Alabama, it will either mean horrible injury luck or the game is out of hand for reasons that have nothing to do with Darrah in the first place. Both McElroy and Mallett are playing lights-out football at the moment, and picking a category winner is difficult, but Mallett gets the nod based on his position as the nation’s efficiency leader. Advantage: Arkansas

RUNNING BACKS
Michael Smith is one of the most underrated running backs in the SEC…so why has Arkansas only fed him the ball 12 times all year? It’s one of the grand mysteries of this Razorback offense, because on those 12 carries, Smith has amassed 102 yards (8.5 avg) and 1 touchdown. Despite being 5’7” and just 170 or so pounds, Smith has proven to be durable over the years, but Arkansas has seemed determined to run Broderick Green in short-yardage situations this year. The results have been poor. Green has carried 13 times for 29 yards (2.2 avg.) and 1 touchdown, and 10 of those yards came on one run. Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo Jr. add depth; Wingo could end up being the best back of the bunch. Alabama counters with a significant one-two punch of Mark Ingram (44 carries, 297 yards, 6.8 avg., 3 TD) and Trent Richardson (29 carries, 215 yards, 7.4 avg., 3 TD). In addition, Roy Upchurch (11 carries, 107 yards, 9.7 avg., 1 TD) returns this week after sitting out last week with a sprained ankle, but his effectiveness figures to be limited. Look for Upchurch as mostly a third-down back. Terry Grant (27 carries, 150 yards, 5.6 avg., 3 TD) has shown well late in games and in situational packages, and will be used in this game as well. Neither team has a fullback. While Smith and Wingo have promise for Arkansas, the fact of the matter is Petrino simply isn’t using them. Alabama, meanwhile, has one of the best running back groups in the country and has proved it. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
If Julio Jones was 100 percent for this game – and he’s not, given the fact he was in a brace earlier in the week – the story might be a bit different, but as it stands now, Arkansas has the edge. The Razorbacks have put together an imminently competent starting group in the form of Jarius Wright (10 catches, 247 yards, 24.7 avg., 1 TD), Greg Childs (9 catches, 190 yards, 21.1 avg., 2 TD) and Joe Adams (7 catches, 125 yards, 17.9 avg, 2 TD). Adams, despite being third on the list so far performance-wise, is probably the best overall receiver. He has the strength of a running back and reminds some of former LSU star Josh Reed. Childs is a big target at 6’3”, 220, while Wright is a smaller receiver with superior speed. Depth is superb, with Cobi Hamilton, Reggie Fish and Carlton Salters available. But what really makes this show go are the tight ends, D.J. Williams and Ben Cleveland. Cleveland has caught just one pass so far off the bench, but he’s proven to be a soft-handed target on possession downs. Williams last year grew into perhaps the league’s best tight end, and this year has caught 6 passes for 78 yards (13.0 avg.) and 1 touchdown. His ability to shift into a fullback slot and block, however, makes him dangerous. Alabama will counter with Jones, although it’s not clear whether he’ll start, plus a supporting cast of Mike McCoy, Darius Hanks, Marquis Maze and Earl Alexander. Michael Bowman and Brandon Gibson add depth. McCoy currently leads this group with 8 catches for 138 yards (17.3 avg.) and 1 touchdown. Tight end Colin Peek has proven himself to be a good blocker and able receiver (6 catches, 76 yards, 12.7 avg.), but the H-back position has been a void so far. Preston Dial and Brad Smelley continue to fight for the position, with Michael Williams, Undra Billingsley, Baron Huber and Chris Underwood all scrapping for playing time. If Jones is healthy, stats or not (currently Jones has just 5 catches for 55 yards and no touchdowns), the balance of power tilts a good bit back towards the Alabama side. Right now, though, the measurables favor Arkansas. Advantage: Arkansas

OFFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas has one of the most veteran units in the conference, with guards Grant Cook and Mitch Petrus and tackles Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love flanking center Seth Oxner. The problem has been reliability. Dominguez struggles badly against top-end rushers, and Love is a guard playing tackle to start with. Both are very vulnerable. Petrus is one of the most athletic guards around, but he and Cook have struggled on short-yardage downs. Oxner continues to battle Wade Grayson for his position. The Razorbacks have decent depth in numbers behind the starters, but aside from Grayson, experience is at a premium. Alabama counters with the tackle combo of James Carpenter and Drew Davis, along with guards Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones and center William Vlachos. Carpenter and Davis have done a good job so far, and Johnson is the best lineman by far on either team. The Vlachos-Jones combination has had its moments, but both players are getting better. So far, Alabama has done a better job of keeping the quarterback’s jersey clean and Alabama holds a definite edge in run blocking. Depth also favors Alabama, which can bring several experienced players off the bench if needed. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSE

Arkansas runs a fairly basic 4-3 scheme, hoping to take advantage of its defensive line unit, which is veteran and has a couple of playmakers. The problem is, it hasn’t worked out as planned, mostly due to a secondary that has been just plain bad. This is a small defense that has a lot of speed in some places – and not so much in others – but the real problem is that oftentimes, the defensive backs don’t know where to be, whether to play the receiver or look back for the ball, or know how to offer run support. As a result, a total team breakdown has occurred on that side of the ball. Alabama’s 3-4 over-under scheme, meanwhile, is ranked in the top five nationally for total defense and the Crimson Tide leads the SEC in sacks per game despite pulling a zero against North Texas.


DEFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas’ four starters are good enough for SEC duty, but depth isn’t where it needs to be and good offensive linemen can easily handle the Hogs’ edge rushers. The best by far is defensive tackle Malcolm Sheppard, who leads the team with 1.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. Not surprisingly, he’s a senior who has been around the block a few times. Zach Stradther starts next to him, and while not being a playmaker is at least big enough and active enough to keep Sheppard from being an automatic double-team. Jake Bequette and Adrian Davis start at the ends; Bequette is a tackle/end tweener, while Davis has thus far looked better in the uniform than he’s produced. The real question is depth; top reserve Demario Ambrose was arrested this week due to assorted drama arising from old traffic tickets, and his status is uncertain. Bet on him to play. He’s the only real size at the position that Arkansas has coming off the bench; Tenarius Wright, the other reserve end, is just 6’1”, 235 pounds, smaller than Alabama’s Eryk Anders and not nearly as accomplished. Patrick Jones, DeQuinta Jones and Lavunce Askew are also available. Alabama counters with a group of maulers that have been a nightmare for all opponents. There is, of course, Terrence Cody in the middle, flanked by Brandon Deaderick and Lorenzo Washington and with Marcel Dareus, Luther Davis and Josh Chapman coming off the bench. Kerry Murphy and Nick Gentry also figure to see some action. When Alabama goes nickel, look for Eryk Anders and Dont'a Hightower to make noise from a rush end slot. It’s saying something that Malcolm Sheppard, a veteran with a probable NFL future, probably couldn’t crack the starting lineup for the Tide. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Arkansas dodged a bullet when the SEC declined to further punish middle linebacker Jerry Franklin after his ejection against Georgia. He’s available to play, and will play, with Petrino declining to punish him further. With Franklin, Arkansas still has a questionable linebacker group. Without him, it would have been disastrous. Wendel Davis and Freddy Burton start at the outside linebacker positions, but neither are above-average players. Jerico Nelson is the top backup and is active when he plays – usually on passing downs – but he is tiny for a SEC linebacker (around 5’10”, 200) and doesn’t match up well to Alabama’s bigger running backs. True freshman Terrell Williams is Franklin’s backup in the middle, and he’s been lost every time he’s been in a game so far. Jermaine Love and Austin Moss provide depth, but neither is a difference-maker. Alabama, meanwhile, has probably the nation’s best inside linebacker duo in Dont'a Hightower and Rolando McClain. Both are the size of defensive ends or tackles, but with the speed of running backs. Eryk Anders has been solid as the Jack linebacker, while Cory Reamer is steady at outside linebacker. Chris Jordan and Nico Johnson will back up the inside positions, while Courtney Upshaw offers speed at the Jack slot and Chavis Williams and Alex Watkins back up Reamer. This one isn’t close. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
For starters, let’s note that Alabama ranks a woeful 9th in the conference in pass defense, and that Alabama’s safeties haven’t been performing up to expectations. Having said that, the Crimson Tide is light years ahead of the Razorbacks, who have one of the worst secondaries of any aspiring BCS power. Alabama’s cornerback trio of Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson and Marquis Johnson are solid, and the Tide has experienced depth behind them in the form of Chris Rogers. True freshman Dre Kirkpatrick has also looked promising. The safeties – Justin Woodall, Robby Green and Mark Barron – have shown flashes but have also been inconsistent. Robert Lester, Ali Sharrief and Tyrone King Jr. provide depth. Arkansas, though, has ranks 90th in raw pass defense (11th in the SEC) and 116th in pass efficiency defense (dead last in the SEC), and run support has been atrocious from the corner slots. Ramon Broadway and Rudell Crim have been the starters so far at corner, although it’s not yet clear whether the depth chart will stay the same. Tramain Thomas and Matt Harris start at the safeties. Thomas is a good athlete, while Harris knows the defense, but both players are one half of a true playmaker at safety. There are a lot of bodies available off the bench, notably Greg Gatson, David Gordon, Andru Stewart and Anthony Leon, but none of them are particularly fear-inducing. Leon comes the closest due to his raw size for a safety (6’4”, 240 pounds). In short, both units are vulnerable, but Arkansas is the far lesser of two evils. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin has made almost as many field goals (80%) as extra-point attempts (84.6%). And given the bad memories from the 2006 Arkansas game, where Tiffin missed a PAT in overtime that led to a loss, fans are understandably nervous. Arkansas’ Alex Tejada hasn’t missed a kick of any kind yet in 2009, although he was flat-out awful in 2008 after having a solid 2007 season. But none of Tejada’s 2009 kicks have come from beyond 29 yards out. Alabama holds a strong edge at punter, where P.J. Fitzgerald has outperformed Arkansas’ Dylan Breeding by a solid amount. In the return game, Alabama smokes the Hogs on punt returns, but kickoff returns are a major strength for Arkansas – and that’s a problem, because Alabama has been among the nation’s worst in covering kickoffs. The return game for this matchup is all about strengths versus strengths and weaknesses versus weaknesses, so it comes down to a comparison of kickers. Given Tiffin’s recent swoon, give the slight edge to the Hogs. Advantage: Arkansas

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Arkansas in three, and all three of Arkansas’ leads are fairly narrow. Alabama easily takes the comparison of Tide DL vs. Razorback OL, and holds a slim edge in OL vs. Arkansas DL.

The problem here is that neither team sees an easy matchup. Alabama is a bad matchup for Arkansas’ defense due to the strength of the Alabama running backs versus the Arkansas linebackers, while Greg McElroy ought to find Arkansas’ secondary easy pickings. But the same holds true when the roles are reversed: Ryan Mallett ought to throw for 300 yards in this game, and any time Alabama kicks off, Arkansas will be a threat to take it to the house.

The real question here is whether Alabama’s offense can impose its will upon the Arkansas defense. If Alabama keeps the ball for 35 minutes, and scores more touchdowns than field goals, it should win this game easily. Arkansas hasn’t shown either the ability or the inclination to mount a balanced attack, and its defense hasn’t shown the ability to keep the offense in the game long enough for it to happen.

To put it simply, Arkansas is outmanned – but Arkansas is also very, very dangerous. Mallett’s presence, plus that of a top-of-the-line receiver corps and an edge in special teams, figures to make this game closer than any Alabama fan would like.

Expect this game to be high-scoring on both sides, with Alabama not getting a comfortable two-score lead until late in the process. But this should end in a Tide victory nonetheless.

Alabama 38
Arkansas 24