JessN: SEC preview and predictions - Week 5

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 5
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Sept. 27, 2009

Last week’s record: 7-1 (87.5%)
Season record: 29-6 (82.9%)

Although the Predictions Dept. isn’t officially doing an “upset special” game as it did last year, the Ole Miss-South Carolina game would have certainly fit the bill. Too bad we didn’t have the guts to call it. This week, Georgia and LSU tie up in the conference’s lead game, while Florida is off and Alabama hits the road to play its first game without the services of linebacker Dont'a Hightower.

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE at SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina State is known for fielding good teams and playing solid football, and this year is no different. The Bulldogs run the football well and don’t beat themselves (12th in turnover margin in Division-IAA heading into last week). The Gamecocks are coming off a signature upset over Ole Miss, and in the past have struggled with teams like Wofford and other Division-IAA powerhouses. Don’t be surprised if this one is closer than most Gamecock fans expect or would like, but South Carolina should still win.
South Carolina 28
S. Carolina St. 13


ALABAMA at KENTUCKY
[B]See our extended preview!

LOUISIANA STATE at GEORGIA
Here are a couple of teams going in opposite directions, it would seem. LSU remains undefeated but barely escaped last week against a badly overmatched Mississippi State team. Georgia lost to Oklahoma State to start the season, but since then have been slowly putting the pieces together. The Bulldogs have skimmed by both South Carolina and a respectable PAC-10 opponent, Arizona State. A good defense could rattle LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson, but the jury remains out on whether Georgia has a good defense. LSU’s defense, meanwhile, needs to toughen up or Georgia’s Joe Cox will have a fun time picking LSU apart. Georgia will be the hot pick here among many oddsmakers, most likely, due to the game being in Athens and considering LSU’s less-than-stellar start. But over the past couple of years, that’s just when LSU shows up at its most dangerous.
LSU 27
Georgia 24


AUBURN at TENNESSEE
Compare the LSU-Georgia tilt with this game, which is the equivalent of two mules fighting over a turnip. Auburn’s last two games should send up red flags due, not to the slow speed of its supposed up-tempo offense, but the porosity of its defense. West Virginia isn’t considered an offensive juggernaut this near, and Ball State certainly isn’t, but if it weren’t for a handful of boneheaded turnovers, the Tigers might be limping into this game with an even record. While that should suggest Tennessee would finally get its first key SEC win under new head coach Lane Kiffin, the Volunteers needed all four quarters to dispatch with Ohio University. That’s Ohio, not Ohio State. Picking a winner in this game is about as easy as deciding which brand of cough syrup to buy: Either way you go, you’re still feeling under the weather.
Tennessee 24
Auburn 21


MISSISSIPPI at VANDERBILT
Ole Miss couldn’t have looked more like pretenders after falling to a thoroughly average South Carolina team on national television Thursday night. Fortunately for the Rebels, Vandy is concerned with being Vandy at the moment. These are typically the times Houston Nutt decides to overcompensate for a bad showing by beating the next team into submission, and Vanderbilt’s offense is so scattershot that Ole Miss has the chance to do just that.
Ole Miss 30
Vanderbilt 10


ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (Dallas, Texas)
Arkansas will revive an old Southwest Conference rivalry with Texas A&M, which is playing much better ball in Mike Sherman’s second year at the helm. The Aggies led the nation in total offense heading into last week. It’s tough to say what Arkansas might do in this one given how thoroughly dominated the Razorbacks were by Alabama last week. Texas A&M’s defense is built completely differently than the Alabama defense, but it’s a defense that is, in theory, tough for one-back passing spread teams. Given how poor the Arkansas secondary is, though, look for the Aggies to possibly pull an upset here.
Texas A&M 45
Arkansas 41


GEORGIA TECH at MISSISSIPPI STATE
These two teams together might combine to pass for 10 yards. The Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs have two of the best rushing offenses in the country right now but can’t throw the ball a lick. The difference is that Mississippi State is also having a hard time stopping the run. Georgia Tech just needs consistency. Ever since Paul Johnson took over the Yellow Jacket program, Georgia Tech has looked unbeatable one week and horrid the next. Case in point: The Yellow Jackets are coming off a dominating win over North Carolina that followed a loss to Miami in which Tech couldn’t get out of its own way. The question for Mississippi State is whether the near-win over LSU was a near-miss, or just a fluke.
Georgia Tech 28
Mississippi St. 17


IDLE: Florida