News Article: Kentucky preview: Alabama’s first road test comes against overmatched Wildcats

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Kentucky preview: Alabama’s first road test comes against overmatched Wildcats
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 27, 2009

Were it not for some fairly stiff injury luck in the first month of the season, Alabama would have to feel good about the way its schedule is setting up. Following a SEC hope opener against an overmatched Arkansas team, Alabama’s first SEC road game is against another overmatched team, the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky had started the season with back-to-back wins over Miami-Ohio and rival Louisville. But the Wildcats came crashing back to earth with a 41-7 defeat at the hands of Florida, a game that was over before it even started as Florida rolled out to a 31-0 lead in the first quarter.

Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a 35-7 dismantling of Arkansas, a game in which the Crimson Tide made the Razorbacks’ powerful offense look almost neutered. But how will Alabama fare without the services of linebacker Dont'a Hightower?

OFFENSE
Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks likes to run the football and take measured shots in the passing game, although the Wildcats have proven over the years willing to turn more of the game over to its quarterback when necessary. The problem this year is Kentucky has no idea how good its quarterbacks really are. Kentucky will operate from an I-formation base set. Alabama counters with its multiple offense that more and more relies on three wideouts, shotgun and Pistol formations.

QUARTERBACKS
Mike Hartline was having a solid season for Kentucky until Florida popped up. Hartline’s completion percentage was above the 70-percent mark, but no longer. He was lifted for backup Will Fidler during the game against the Gators. Hartline is an average runner with an average arm, but does have moxie and isn’t easily flustered. The problem is, his raw physical talents just aren’t there. Alabama’s Greg McElroy has proven over four games this year that the Crimson Tide can win on the strength of his arm. His showing against Arkansas – three touchdowns and nearly 300 yards passing – was the epitome of consistency and efficiency. Alabama’s Star Jackson compares favorably to Kentucky’s Fidler as backups. Hartline isn’t terrible, but unlike McElroy, he’s not really capable of doing something to win the game for his team. Advantage: Alabama


RUNNING BACKS
Derrick Locke is Mr. Outside for Kentucky, while Alfonso Smith and Moncell Adams take turns being Mr. Inside. Locke is a decent talent and always a threat to break one, but he’s not consistently a game-changer and neither Smith nor Adams are proven enough to get 20-30 carries. Kentucky’s John Conner offers the Wildcats a weapon at fullback, and he’ll run the ball, catch passes and block whenever needed. Alabama counters with no fullback, but a trio of running backs who can all change the game – and often do. Mark Ingram will start, with super freshman Trent Richardson backing him up. Roy Upchurch will get most of the third-down work, but is still slowed somewhat by a knee injury. Terry Grant offers a spark of speed off the bench, but doesn’t do well between the tackles. Richardson continues to show more and more each week, while Ingram is developing into a great all-around back. Locke and Smith are nice players for Kentucky but they don’t compare to Alabama’s tailback group, and the lack of a fullback for Alabama isn’t enough to make up the difference. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
The Kentucky passing game basically breaks down to how often Hartline can get the ball to Randall Cobb. Cobb is exciting anytime he has the ball in his hands, and is the perfect player to run the Wildcat formation, which he’ll do. He can also play quarterback, so when he’s in the Wildcat, Alabama will have to respect him. A pair of big receivers, Chris Matthews and Matt Roark, will get most of the rest of the work since Kyrus Lanxter has been slowed by a hamstring injury. Matthews and Roark have good hands, but not much speed. Tight end T.C. Drake is probably a tick above average. Alabama counters with a group that has been getting better and better – and more dangerous – since the start of the season. Julio Jones’ resume needs no analysis, but the off receivers, primarily Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze, have started drawing attention from opposing secondaries. The problem is, defenses can’t double-cover all three at once. Maze, in particular, is developing into a major-league second option to Jones. Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, Brandon Gibson and Michael Bowman add depth. Alabama starts two tight ends, and Colin Peek has proven himself as both a blocker and as a receiver. The H-back role, though, continues to be unsettled. Preston Dial has it for now, but Brad Smelley will play. Michael Williams backs up Peek. Cobb is a wonderful talent, but Kentucky can’t seem to spread the ball around the way Alabama can. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Florida was the Kentucky offensive line’s first real challenge, and the Wildcats failed. Kentucky got only around 170 yards of total offense after averaging 410-plus the first two games. The tackles, Zipp Duncan and Justin Jeffries, are good enough, but the middle of the line struggles. Center Jorge Gonzalez is probably the best of the three. The guards, Christian Johnson and Stuart Hines, are vulnerable. Arkansas, however, exposed similar vulnerabilities in Alabama’s front this past week. James Carpenter and Drew Davis do a good job at the tackles and left guard Mike Johnson is a star. But center William Vlachos and right guard Barrett Jones often need help. Neither team fields a group of maulers, but Alabama is much better inside than is Kentucky. Plus, Alabama has a better track record of overall offensive performance thus far in 2009. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSE
Until the Florida game, Kentucky’s 4-3 scheme was proving to be a pretty stout unit. The pass defense numbers should finish up among the league’s top groups, but a lack of depth and size up front will hurt Kentucky against more physical teams. Alabama’s 3-4 over-under scheme completely shut down the powerful Arkansas attack last week after also shutting down everyone else it’s faced this year. Even with recent injuries, Alabama’s defense has been overpowering.

DEFENSIVE LINE
The loss of Jeremy Jarmon in the preseason to eligibility issues was a real punch in the gut to Kentucky. JUCO transfer DeQuin Evans took his place, but hasn’t replaced his impact. The other end, Collins Ukwu, is quick but isn’t SEC size. Chandler Burden gives Kentucky real size off the bench, while Taylor Windham, a freshman, is the player that took out Florida’s Tim Tebow last week. His speed gives him a bright future. Tackles Corey Peters and Ricky Lumpkin can be a load, especially Peters. Shane McCord and Mark Crawford, the latter another JUCO transfer, offer decent depth. Alabama counters with Terrence Cody in the middle and Lorenzo Washington at one of the end positions. Marcell Dareus apparently has pulled ahead of Brandon Deaderick permanently, although both will play a good bit. Josh Chapman and Kerry Murphy offer depth at nose tackle while Nick Gentry, Luther Davis and Milton Talbert are available at end. Kentucky’s group isn’t bad; Alabama’s is just better, and significantly deeper. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Any SEC team would love to have Kentucky’s Micah Johnson playing in their colors. Johnson will start in the middle flanked by Sam Maxwell and Danny Trevathan. Maxwell and Johnson give Kentucky two of the bigger starting linebackers in the conference. Jacob Dufrene, Mikhail Mabry and Ronnie Sneed provide depth, and there’s some experience there.

As for Alabama, here’s where it gets tricky, and first of all, an editor’s note: Due to travel schedules, this preview was written Sunday night, before final word had come down as to the extent of Dont'a Hightower’s knee injury. Regardless of how severe it is in the long run (preliminary reports were that it was likely to be a torn ACL and thus, season-ending in nature), it’s reasonably certain that Hightower is out for this game regardless of the extent of the injury.

Alabama will go about replacing Hightower in two ways: On most downs, and always in the nickel sets, Cory Reamer will move from his outside linebacker position to the weakside inside position next to Rolando McClain. Jack linebacker Eryk Anders will move to the outside position, with Courtney Upshaw the new player at Jack. But when Alabama needs to go big to stop a power rushing attack – and Kentucky will likely offer up that look from time to time Saturday – look for Reamer and Anders to stay put and Alabama to replace Hightower with either Chris Jordan or true freshman Nico Johnson.

The overriding point to make here is that Alabama fans will be seeing a lot more of Cory Reamer in the coming weeks; Reamer used to come off the field in most nickel alignments. Chavis Williams, Alex Watkins and Milton Talbert could also see more time as a result of Hightower’s injury. In comparing Alabama’s new group to Kentucky’s, McClain and Johnson cancel out, and of the players left, Alabama’s Anders has been a better playmaker off the edge. Slight edge to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Cornerback Trevard Lindley will probably be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft next April. He’s almost unbeatable at his position and wherever he lines up, Alabama will take note and then do everything possible not to throw it there. Paul Warford starts at the other corner position with Randall Burden backing up both slots. The safety tandem of Winston Guy and Calvin Harrison are getting better, with Matt Lentz and Taiedo Smith the backups. Alabama’s secondary did a fine job against Arkansas and Ryan Mallett last week. Kareem Jackson, Javier Arenas and Marquis Johnson played tremendously at cornerback, while safeties Justin Woodall, Mark Barron and Robby Green also had strong games. Ali Sharrief, Tyrone King Jr. and Robert Lester provide depth at safety, while Dre Kirkpatrick and Chris Rogers offer depth at corner. Alabama is much deeper than Kentucky, but Lindley’s presence gives the Kentucky secondary added credibility. The play of Guy and Harrison further adds to the picture. This one is very close. Advantage: Kentucky

SPECIAL TEAMS
Kentucky led the SEC in kickoff returns heading into the Florida game, an area that continues to confound Alabama coverage units. Beyond that, however, the Tide has the edge in every way. Alabama is the best in the conference at returning punts, punter P.J. Fitzgerald is having a breakthrough season and the Tide covers punts well, too. As for the placekickers, Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin is up or down depending on the week, but no one knows about Kentucky’s Lones Seiber because he’s kicked only twice all year, going 1-for-2 on field goals. Seiber’s job was in jeopardy coming into the year but he hasn’t had a chance to lose the job due to his inactivity. If Alabama can find a way to hold up the Wildcat kick returners, the Tide should have this one in its back pocket. Advantage: Alabama


OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Kentucky in one, and that one – defensive back – is about as close as you can get. Alabama strongly leads the matchup of its DL versus the Kentucky OL, while the matchup of Kentucky DL to Alabama OL is probably a push.

The Wildcats will have the home-field advantage, but that hasn’t been a huge deal in this series (from the Kentucky standpoint, at least). The deciding factor in this game will likely be how well Alabama bounces back from the Hightower injury.

Alabama will need to have its offense clicking on all cylinders in order to take this one, because Kentucky doesn’t have a true weak point on defense that Alabama can specifically exploit. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, the offense against Florida went into a stall, and Alabama was surely watching how to stop it.

Kentucky’s only chance to win is to hit a couple of big plays, limit Alabama’s rushing game to moderate damage and hope that Alabama turns the ball over with uncommon frequency. Failing that outcome, however, Alabama should win comfortably.

Alabama 34
Kentucky 10