News Article: Ole Miss preview: Rebels usually save their A-game for Alabama

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Ole Miss preview: Rebels usually save their A-game for Alabama
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Oct. 5, 2009

Prior to the 2009 season, Ole Miss found itself in a position no team wants to be in – that of “media darling.”

Given how rarely the nation’s sports media accurately picks the correct surprise team in any given year, Ole Miss had reason to be concerned. And like clockwork, Ole Miss’ bubble burst Sept. 24 when the Rebels lost a shocker in Columbia, S.C., to the Gamecocks, 16-10.

But the Rebels do have a wild card in their deck: Houston Nutt, the Ole Miss coach, has a reputation for two things, mediocrity and unpredictability. Many of Nutt’s Arkansas teams were famous for underachieving against mid-level opponents, then shocking a heavily favored team the following week. Couple that with Alabama’s recent close calls in Oxford, and this game figures to be closer than most Alabama fans would prefer.

However, an Ole Miss win would definitely be an upset. The Rebels were never as good as their preseason ranking suggested, and the Ole Miss offensive line has become a weakness.

OFFENSE

Houston Nutt likes to run the ball, but he has a good (albeit a struggling) quarterback in Jevan Snead and likes to make use of the Wildcat and other gimmick formations. Nutt prefers to pound the ball inside physically, but the Rebel line hasn’t been up to the task. Alabama continues to expand its offensive repertoire, and the Pistol set now seems to be Alabama’s base as often as not. Both teams figure to take plenty of shots downfield in the passing game. As for the numbers, Ole Miss and Alabama are both slanted toward the running game, although Alabama is averaging almost 30 places better than the Rebels in all three major yardage categories (rushing, passing and total).

QUARTERBACKS
Coming into the year, Ole Miss’ Jevan Snead was considered one of the stars to watch at quarterback, not just in the SEC, but the nation as well. He was on Heisman Trophy watch lists from coast to coast. Then, the season started. Snead has put up very average numbers, going 54-for-105 (51.4%) so far for 728 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Compare those numbers with the ones posted by Greg McElroy for Alabama: 78-for-119 (65.5%), 1,086 yards, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. As strange as it might sound, McElroy has proven himself to be the better player. Snead’s major weakness in 2009 seems to be his carelessness in throwing into traffic. It’s not all that unbelievable given what Nutt-coached quarterbacks often do, but Snead’s raw talent level should have lifted him to higher than this. As for the backups, Alabama’s Star Jackson and Mississippi’s Nathan Stanley are both redshirt freshmen. Jackson has a small edge in experience for now. Billy Tapp is a better third option for the Rebels than Thomas Darrah is for UA, but if things get down to the third level, Ole Miss will likely have lost the game by that time anyway. So far, Snead is in a slump, while McElroy is having a breakout year. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Alabama’s Mark Ingram and Ole Miss’ Brandon Bolden are both having terrific years. Both are averaging around 6 yards per carry, with Ingram getting the edge in yardage mainly because Ole Miss has played only 4 games so far compared to the Tide’s 5. Ingram is slightly better in the passing game as both a receiver and blocker. As for depth, provided Roy Upchurch is completely healthy, Alabama holds a slim edge there, too, although Ole Miss is nothing to sneeze at. Upchurch and Trent Richardson will both play a lot for Alabama in this game, and Terry Grant will have some role in a special package or two. For Ole Miss, Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis are the primary backups, although receiver Dexter McCluster will get plenty of carries on outside runs and on reverses. Snead is also a fine athlete who should get some yardage on scrambles and designed draws. Alabama doesn’t have a fullback, but Ole Miss has a good one in Andy Hartmann – if he’s healthy. Hartmann is considered doubtful for this game with a knee injury. If he can’t go, the job falls to inexperienced sophomore Dan Hoffman, who is yet to touch the ball in 2009. Both groups of running backs are solid, but Hartmann’s injury really sends things over to Alabama’s side. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster make a nice one-two punch for Ole Miss, and depth is good behind them in the form of Markeith Summers, Lionel Breaux and true freshman Patrick Patterson, who Alabama recruited heavily. Alabama counters with Julio Jones, who may still be dealing with the effects of a sports hernia injury from last season; right now, he’s the team’s sixth-leading receiver. However, with Jones struggling, the fact that five other receivers have stepped forward say something about the depth of this unit. Marquis Maze offers Alabama a speed option from the flanker slot, while Mike McCoy, Darius Hanks, Earl Alexander, Michael Bowman and Brandon Gibson provide depth. Where Alabama really takes this category, though, is at the tight end slot, where Colin Peek has developed into a weapon. Ole Miss starts a freshman, Ferbia Allen. Depth at tight end would ordinarily favor Ole Miss (Gerald Harris vs. Preston Dial for UA), but Harris is hurt and might not play. Hodge and McCluster have performed slightly better as a whole than Alabama’s starting group, but Alabama has better depth, better tight ends and Jones is due to break out at some point. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
To put it bluntly, Ole Miss’ line is a mess. The Rebels have played a ton of players so far, searching for the proper alignment. Run blocking has been inconsistent, while pass blocking has been far below average. And the one good defensive line the Rebels faced – the one belonging to South Carolina – shut down the Rebels almost completely. Bradley Sowell, Alex Washington, Bobby Massie and John Jerry will play the tackles, while Rishaw Johnson, Brandon Green and Reid Neely will man the guard slots. Daverin Geralds starts at center, with Max Jean-Louis available. Alabama counters with a group that continues to do solid work each week. Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones start at guard, framing center William Vlachos. Tackles Drew Davis and James Carpenter have been solid. Jones was nicked up against Kentucky, but didn’t leave the game. If he needs a breather against Ole Miss, Chance Warmack, John Michael Boswell and Brian Motley are available. Tyler Love and Alfred McCullough add depth at tackle, and McCullough also comes in with Terrence Cody in Alabama’s goal line package. Unlike the first three offensive categories, this one isn’t remotely close. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSE

Ole Miss’ 4-3 defense is built on pressure and speed, two Nutt hallmarks. So far, the front seven has lived up to the challenge. But it’s been the pass defense (2nd overall, 11th in pass efficiency defense) that has really opened eyes in 2009. Granted, Ole Miss has yet to face any team with an above-average offense. For Alabama, things were plugging along nicely until Dont'a Hightower was lost for the year with a torn ACL. Alabama’s defensive adjustments worked nicely against Kentucky, but Hightower’s absence at the linebacker level was felt. This will be a nice matchup of two very tough, stingy defenses that play with bad attitudes.

DEFENSIVE LINE
It’s tough to call a winner here, because the two teams go about their business in such different ways. Alabama is stronger up the middle, with Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman wreaking havoc in the middle while Marcell Dareus, Brandon Deaderick, Luther Davis and Lorenzo Washington take turns holding the guard-tackle gaps and letting the linebacker run free. In its four-man front, Ole Miss is better off the corners, with Kentrell Lockett, Greg Hardy and Marcus Tillman as lethal weapons off the edge. The inside players – Lawon Scott, Jerrell Powe, Ted Laurent and LaMark Armour – are good, but not as good as Alabama’s inside tackles. The two teams are tied for the conference lead in sacks. This one is a hard call, but strength in the SEC is usually built from the inside out, and Alabama is a touch better there. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Prior to Hightower’s injury, this one was easily an Alabama take. Now, things are less certain. Alabama’s alignment against Kentucky included Eryk Anders at strongside linebacker and Cory Reamer at the weakside post, with Rolando McClain in the middle. Courtney Upshaw became the new starter at Jack. That alignment figures to see a lot of action Saturday, although Reamer is not big enough to play inside against physical running teams, which describes Ole Miss. It would not be a surprise to see Chris Jordan, Nico Johnson or maybe even true freshman Tana Patrick, who is yet to play in 2009, getting a look when Alabama needs more beef. Alex Watkins provides depth at the outside positions. For Ole Miss, Patrick Trahan, Allen Walker and Jonathan Cornell form a very tough starting unit. Lamar Brumfield can play any of the three positions off the bench, and true freshman D.T. Shackelford has become a real storyline. With Hightower out for Alabama and the Tide scrambling the depth chart to compensate, Ole Miss now holds the edge in depth. But give Alabama the slight nod based on McClain’s dominance. This one is razor-close. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Alabama’s safeties continue to improve with each game. Mark Barron’s last two games were imminently better than his first three, and together with Justin Woodall and dimeback Robby Green, have given Alabama a reasonably good presence in the middle. Cornerbacks Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson are more than solid. Ali Sharrief provides depth at safety. Ole Miss wasn’t supposed to have a remarkable secondary, but performance so far indicates the Rebels may be better than advertised. Safeties Johnny Brown and Kendrick Lewis are 1-2 on the team tackle list, and Brown especially has had a nice season, breaking up 4 passes and intercepting one. Cassius Vaughn and Marshay Green have been solid at corner, and Jeremy McGee and Marcus Temple provide nice depth off the bench. Fon Ingram has been a solid nickelback so far. The big issue for Ole Miss here is size. No starter nor backup tops 5’11” on the height chart and most of the players are also lightweight. Brown and Lewis were vulnerable last year against top wide receiver corps, as well, and Alabama certainly brings that to the table in this game. Again, give the slight edge to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Nutt has always valued strong special teams, and is not averse to taking chances on fakes. Ole Miss thought it had the kicking situation settled prior to the year, but the Rebels were only half right. Placekicker Jonathan Shene has been as good as ever, and statistically is among the best in the country. But punter Justin Sparks was benched after a bad start and replaced by Tyler Campbell. Andrew Ritter is below average as a kickoff man. The Rebels have been mediocre in both kick returns (76th) and punt returns (61st), and don’t cover punts especially well. For Alabama, kicker Leigh Tiffin has been solid enough, while punter P.J. Fitzgerald has been very good. Alabama is great on punt returns and above average on punt returns, but the coverage units – particularly on kickoffs – continue to struggle. Neither team is where it wants to be, but Alabama’s advantage on returns allow the Tide to eke out a slight advantage. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in all eight categories, which is probably a shocker to both sides. Alabama also takes the matchup of its DL to Ole Miss’ OL – by the largest of margins, at that – although Ole Miss wins a matchup of its DL against Alabama’s OL. It should also be noted that all eight categories, save for offensive line, are fairly close.

In other words, an 8-0 comparison doesn’t guarantee an Alabama blowout. Far from it. Alabama has found Oxford to be rough sledding in recent years, and anytime two SEC teams with strong defenses meet, the score is likely to hover around the single digits.

It’s unlikely Alabama will lose this game, but it’s also unlikely Alabama will blow out the Rebels or anything close to it. Ole Miss is a tough team, coached by a master motivator, and if the Rebels are to get back in the title discussion, the process starts Saturday.

Look for Alabama’s defense to be the deciding factor here, especially up front. If Alabama can dominate the Ole Miss offensive line – and all four of the Rebels’ prior opponents have done just that for at least part of the game – Nutt’s tendency to make a critical strategic mistake will probably be the difference. The biggest potential sticking point for Alabama would be in Nutt somehow found a way to exploit Hightower’s absence. But with the way the Rebel offensive line is struggling, don’t bet on it.

Alabama 24
Ole Miss 16