News Article: SEC bowl update for 11-9-09

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SEC bowl update for 11-9-09
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

Alabama’s win over LSU last week helped solidify the SEC bowl picture a great deal. Here’s a quick rundown of SEC teams’ likely destinations.

ALABAMA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati
Analysis: If Alabama gets to Atlanta undefeated, then loses to Florida, the Tide will go back to the Sugar Bowl against an overmatched opponent trying to prove its worth. Sound familiar? This year, that team would likely be either TCU or Cincinnati. Sugar Bowl officials would figure to go after TCU given the distance to New Orleans, but getting Cincinnati would match up Nick Saban against the coach many consider to be the next Nick Saban – Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly. Also, don’t underestimate the draw of inviting the Bearcats, whose alumni base is huge due to the size of the school.
Worst-case scenario: We’re going to assume Alabama beats Div-IAA UT-Chattanooga and not even consider an upset there, just to make this easy. For Alabama to fall to the Capital One, Alabama would have to probably lose all three of its remaining key games. Even a two-loss Alabama team would probably stick high enough in the BCS to qualify for New Orleans.

FLORIDA
Possibilities: BCS Championship Game, Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: BCS Championship Game vs. Texas
Analysis: Like Alabama, Florida would have to aim for the bottom in order to miss at least a trip to New Orleans. The Gators will certainly be favored over Alabama in Atlanta barring a slip-up versus South Carolina or Florida State. If Florida loses one of those two games and then loses also to Alabama, or just simply loses to Alabama, the Gators will lock themselves into the Sugar against either TCU or Cincinnati.
Worst-case scenario: If Florida somehow managed to finish on an 0-3 run, it would create nightmares for both the Cap One and the Sugar. Such a scenario would likely land home-state LSU in the Sugar and home-state Florida in the Capital One. Tourism dollars would be cut to near zero in both locales.

LSU
Possibilities: Sugar Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl
Most likely destination: Capital One Bowl vs. Penn State
Analysis: LSU could sneak into the Sugar if either Alabama or Florida train-wrecks down the stretch, but the most likely destination will be the Capital One against Penn State. To get there, LSU needs to beat Arkansas, which lately has been easier said than done for the Tigers. Even if LSU loses again, it likely won’t be enough to fall from the Cotton. But couple an Arkansas loss with a loss to Ole Miss in two weeks, and now things get touchy. At 8-4, LSU would probably land in the Cotton against Oklahoma State or Nebraska, as the Capital One seems to prefer East Division teams.
Worst-case scenario: It’s LSU, so you at least have to account for a possible Louisiana Tech upset. If LSU were to lose out and finish 7-5, the Outback Bowl would be the likely final destination, against Wisconsin or Iowa. If the Tigers somehow ended up facing the Hawkeyes in the Outback, that would be somehow – and sadly – fitting given the expectations at both schools this year.

TENNESSEE
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Cotton Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Analysis: Don’t look now, but Tennessee is about to finish second in the SEC East. Even though that would seem to send them toward the Outback, the Cotton Bowl would love to have the Vols and a matchup with Oklahoma State would be highly entertaining. Tennessee is certainly the hottest team in the conference at the moment, and a strong finish would most likely be rewarded handsomely.
Worst-case scenario: Tennessee could theoretically miss the postseason altogether. Kentucky and Ole Miss are both very capable of beating the Volunteers, and Vanderbilt isn’t a total pushover. But a real nightmare would be figuring what to do with the Vols if they end up 6-6. In that case, the Liberty would be the likely destination so as to attract a large crowd. Anything in between sets off a cascade effect.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl
Most likely destination: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Miami
Analysis: Here’s a matchup that no one really wants to see, but would be intriguing anyway. The real issue here is that Clemson is tagged for this slot due to the way the ACC’s tie-ins shake out, but who’s going to rematch Clemson and South Carolina in this game? No one. So look for the Chick-fil-A to try to match Steve Spurrier against old in-state rival Miami. Unfortunately, it probably means the Gamecocks will finish the year 6-6 with losses to Clemson and Florida. The Outback becomes a possibility with a win over Clemson; the Cotton is a possibility only if USC wins both games.
Worst-case scenario: This gets down to who is doing the picking and when. Because of the screwy way the two divisions are finishing out this year, East Division teams are likely headed to traditionally West-leaning destinations (i.e., Tennessee in the Cotton) and vice versa. Georgia is the linchpin in the deal; if the Outback takes the Bulldogs, South Carolina goes to the Chick-fil-A. If the Outback takes Auburn, Georgia stays in Atlanta and South Carolina fights with Kentucky over one of the two Tennessee-based bowls.

GEORGIA
Possibilities: Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Capital One Bowl
Most likely destination: Outback Bowl vs. Iowa
Analysis: Georgia isn’t bowl-eligible yet, but the Bulldogs have winnable games against Auburn and Kentucky to close the season. Wins in those games and a loss to Georgia Tech would probably lock the Bulldogs into Tampa for the Outback. Georgia could also sneak into the Cotton if Tennessee drops a game to close the year. And if LSU completely self-destructs, Georgia could vault all the way to the Capital One.
Worst-case scenario: The Bulldogs could easily lose out and sit home for the holidays. Assuming they at least beat Kentucky, however, they would probably get the Liberty or Music City.

KENTUCKY
Possibilities: Chick-fil-A Bowl, Outback Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Music City Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely destination: Music City Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Analysis: Just so we’re clear, Kentucky could still finish 8-4. If the Wildcats did so, they would get the Outback or the Cotton, guaranteed. For that matter, the Cap One isn’t even off the table at that point. More likely, however, Kentucky will beat Vanderbilt and finish 6-6, sending the Wildcats to the Music City for a lopsided matchup against Virginia Tech, who would likely maul them.
Worst-case scenario: Lose to Vanderbilt, and the only trip Kentucky will be taking will be to the corner store for some pizza to munch upon while watching the bowl games take place. Otherwise, depending on how the rest of the league finishes, Kentucky could find itself in Birmingham in the Papajohns.com Bowl facing West Virginia, South Florida or Rutgers.

AUBURN
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Independence Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl
Most likely destination: Independence Bowl vs. Texas Tech
Analysis: The Independence Bowl folks would be salivating over this matchup of goofy offenses. Auburn is guaranteed at least a 7-5 finish, though, so unless a couple of the also-ran East teams finish 7-5, the Tigers could be headed to Atlanta. If Auburn were to beat Georgia, though, the discussion then boils down to Cotton or Outback. Beat Alabama as well, and it’s a trip to the Capital One.
Worst-case scenario: Oddly enough, the worst-case scenario could also be the most likely scenario. The Chick-fil-A is the fly in the ointment. The Chick-fil-A is typically home to an East Division team, but Auburn’s proximity to Atlanta makes the Tigers attractive to the former Peach Bowl’s selection committee.

ARKANSAS
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl
Most likely destination: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston
Analysis: Talk about your offensive showcases. Houston would bring Case Keenum to this game while Arkansas would counter with Ryan Mallett. The game might not be over until February.
Worst-case scenario: Arkansas must still get a win to be bowl-eligible, but the Razorbacks do have Troy and Mississippi State still left on the schedule. Assuming the Hogs get one win but no more, they could fall all the way to Birmingham. But the Liberty will want Arkansas under any circumstance due to its proximity to Arkansas.

OLE MISS
Possibilities: Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely scenario: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Rutgers
Analysis: Ole Miss has the widest range of possibilities of any team. Winning out would mean a 9-3 season and probably a New Year’s Day bowl game. Losing out would mean 6-6 (and those three games are against Tennessee, LSU and rival Mississippi State) and a trip to Birmingham.
Worst-case scenario: Like Auburn, Ole Miss might find its worst-case scenario to be its most likely. The Rebels travel better than Mississippi State, so even if the Bulldogs get bowl-eligible, Ole Miss will probably get this slot and State will have to go find a home elsewhere. If there’s a logjam at 7-5, however, Ole Miss is the worst take of the bunch. Ole Miss’ best hope is to beat Mississippi State and then hope some conference teams stall out at 6-6.

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Possibilities: Cotton Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl
Most likely scenario: Left out, possibly picking up the GMAC Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl
Analysis: MSU is consistently the worst-represented SEC team on the road outside of Vanderbilt, and as such will likely be the odd man out under any scenario. The only way the Bulldogs could force the issue is to win out, which would given them 7 wins and vault them over any 6-6 team. At that point, even the Cotton is doable, depending on what LSU does. More likely, State would wind up in one of the four minor bowls, preferably the Independence or Papajohns.com
Worst-case scenario: No one likes to be left out in the cold, but the SEC has too many potentially bowl-eligible teams for its slots. The two other bowls most likely to lose a team are the New Mexico Bowl – which kicks off Dec. 19 to start the postseason – and the Jan. 6 GMAC Bowl in Mobile. But most likely, the Bulldogs end up sitting home altogether.