News Article: SEC preview and predictions – Week 11

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 11
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

Last week’s record: 8-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 61-15 (80.3%)

The Predictions Dept. doesn’t often have undefeated weeks this late in the season, but Week 10 was good to us. As Week 11 approaches, Georgia and Auburn square off in a game between two teams that no one can figure out, while Florida gets its last SEC test of the season.

AUBURN at GEORGIA
This series has been screwy for years. The road team actually seemed to hold the advantage for some time. Add to that the upside-down season Georgia has had in 2009, Auburn’s thin defense, budding fan discontent with the Bulldog coaching staff and you have the recipe for one weird ballgame. Georgia’s defense has played with the consistency of skim milk in 2009, a dangerous thing given that Auburn’s offense can be very potent. But Georgia’s offense ought to find Auburn’s defense similarly porous. Although it would be somehow fitting if this game ended 6-3, look for this one to turn into one of those offensive showcases that TV networks love. And oh-by-the-way, Georgia still needs one victory to get bowl-eligible, and Auburn might be the easiest team left on the schedule.
Georgia 42
Auburn 38

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE
See our extended preview!

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT
Kentucky needs this win in order to get to a bowl game. Vanderbilt has played better in recent weeks, and especially since replacing Larry Smith at quarterback with Mackenzi Adams, but Kentucky has more to play for at the moment. If the Wildcats lose this game and Auburn beats Georgia, Kentucky and Georgia would face off as a pair of 5-5 teams next week and the loser probably would slip all the way to 5-7 (and ineligible for a bowl game) in the process. Even though Vandy is playing reasonably good football at the moment, the Commodores just don’t have the offensive firepower they need.
Kentucky 24
Vanderbilt 13

TENNESSEE at MISSISSIPPI
These two teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment. Tennessee has played very well the last four weeks, going 3-1 over that span and narrowly missing an upset of Alabama. Ole Miss, on the other hand, had a chance to reassert itself in the SEC picture two weeks ago but came unglued against a mediocre Auburn team. Although the Rebels have home-field advantage in this one, just off the strength of Tennessee’s offensive resurgence, it would seem the Vols now hold the upper hand. Ole Miss is now bowl-eligible off the strength of a win over Northern Arizona, but it’s not out of the realm of reason to suggest the Rebels will finish the season 6-6 unless Houston Nutt turns the team’s mental state around, and fast. Tennessee, on the other hand, should cruise through its last two games (Kentucky, Vanderbilt) and with a win here, could get to 8-4. Neither team is playing with confidence, so we’ll pick Ole Miss based off the strength of its secondary and having the home field. But we’re not comfortable with the pick.
Ole Miss 24
Tennessee 23

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina looked for a time like a potential SEC East contender. But the Gamecocks’ back-loaded schedule is catching up with them, as well as a general lack of athletes and difference-makers. It doesn’t help that Steve Spurrier’s offensive philosophy may now actually be a liability rather than a strength. And against Florida, the Gamecocks have no chance. South Carolina is likely on its way to a 6-6 regular season and a trip to Nashville or Memphis over the holidays. Only an injury to Tim Tebow could keep Florida from winning this game.
Florida 29
South Carolina 7

TROY at ARKANSAS
The Trojans have scored 40 or more points in their last four games and 30 or more in their last six. They have the reputation for being upset-minded (remember the near-miss against LSU? The beatdown of Oklahoma State?), but Arkansas is playing solid football right now and can smell postseason eligibility. A win either here or against Mississippi State in a week would give it to them. Troy’s pass defense is terrible, which will probably be the difference between this being just another quality loss for the Trojans versus being an upset opportunity.
Arkansas 48
Troy 24

LOUISIANA TECH at LOUISIANA STATE
This is an interesting game for LSU, because the Tigers are badly bruised and battered after their loss to Alabama, while Louisiana Tech came close to upsetting Boise State last week and would like nothing better than to upset the state’s big team. For LSU, if Jordan Jefferson can’t go in this game, it could bring the margin closer (especially with RB Charles Scott now out for the year), but it’s hard to imagine a scenario that would have the Bulldogs winning this game, no matter how many Tigers were out or slowed.
LSU 27
Louisiana Tech 10