News Article: MSU preview: Bulldogs better than expected, but still thin

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MSU preview: Bulldogs better than expected, but still thin
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 9, 2009

When Dan Mullen took over as head coach of Mississippi State, he did so to a chorus of snickers from many, who viewed the young coaching prospect as loony for stepping off into the abyss that has been Bulldog football since the crash and burn of Jackie Sherrell’s career.

Instead, Mullen – whose team looked like a 2-10 outfit in the spring – has the Bulldogs reasonably close to being bowl-eligible. The Bulldogs are 4-5 and have Arkansas and Ole Miss left after playing Alabama. It would be a tough mountain to climb to get bowl-eligible, but it’s not impossible.

This week, however, Mississippi State has what is, at worst, its second-toughest game of the year. The Bulldogs played Florida gamely Oct. 24, losing 29-19, but that score was affected by an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime. In reality, the Bulldog offense just couldn’t penetrate Florida’s superior defense.

Alabama shouldn’t be looking past Mississippi State to Florida, but it’s a good bet the Tide coaches will use Mississippi State as a tune-up for the Florida offense. Mullen was Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at Florida and many consider him to be a co-architect of the spread-option scheme along with Meyer. Overall, however, the Bulldog defense and special teams are mediocre, and MSU turns the ball over too much.

OFFENSE

Mullen deserves praise for taking a bunch of players recruited for the West Coast offense and making spread-option performers out of them. The Bulldogs have no real quarterback, and the receivers are average on their best day. But Mississippi State does have running backs Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, giving the Bulldogs as good a one-two punch as there is in the conference. Look for State to leverage that depth at running back into as much as can be gotten from it. Alabama counters with its multiple offense that offers multiple looks and countless formations, but is at its heart a pro-style spread attack featuring a strong running game. The offense is coming off arguably its best game of the season given the level of competition.

QUARTERBACKS
Tyson Lee may be the only player on the Bulldogs’ current roster to have benefited from the change to the spread-option. He’s too small to play QB in the SEC, doesn’t have a great arm for a pro-set attack and sometimes doesn’t make the best decisions. But the spread-option covers up his shortcomings fairly well. On the season, he’s 112-of-189 (59.3%) for 1,271 yards. The problem has been his turnovers; he has 11 interceptions against just 4 touchdowns. His backup is Chris Relf, who hasn’t played much quarterback lately but does get in the game as a running back sometimes. Relf is bigger than the 5’11”, 190-pound Lee, but isn’t as accurate nor does he know the offense as well. Alabama counters with Greg McElroy, who is coming off one of his best performances of the season. McElroy is 140-of-236 (59.3%) for 1,721 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, reversing Lee’s numbers over the final two stats. Who his backup is at the moment is open to question. Logic would dictate that Star Jackson has the slot, but rumors have run rampant over the past couple of weeks that Thomas Darrah and even true freshman A.J. McCarron were in the mix, the latter an option if McElroy was injured. Backing up those assertions was the fact Darrah ran the second team in pregame for Tennessee, while McCarron handled the job prior to the LSU game, even staying on to signal in the plays in Jackson’s place once the game got started. While Relf has more experience than all of Alabama’s backups put together, it won’t matter as long as McElroy stays healthy. Lee is doing the best he can, but McElroy has more tools. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Alabama has a Heisman Trophy candidate on its sideline, but Mississippi State hasn’t done badly in 2009. Anthony Dixon is the league’s best pure power back. He’s carried 182 times for 1,001 yards (5.5 avg.) and 9 touchdowns this year. His backup, Christian Ducre (45 carries, 263 yards, 5.8 avg., 2 TD) is better than a lot of teams’ starters. Chris Relf (43 carries, 292 yards, 6.8 avg.) and Arnil Stallworth add depth along with Robert Elliot. MSU has no full-time fullback, but Stallworth sometimes plays the position, as does Alabama transfer Patrick Hanrahan and Sylvester Hemphill. Alabama counters with the aforementioned Heisman candidate, Mark Ingram, who has carried 175 times for 1,148 yards (6.6 avg.) and 8 touchdowns. Backups Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch have been equally effective when used. Terry Grant missed the LSU game with injury; if he’s out, Demetrius Goode will be the fourth-teamer. Like State, Alabama eschews a full-time fullback, although Baron Huber is available in short-yardage situations. This is actually a fairly close call, as both Ingram and Dixon will certainly find homes one day in the NFL – as might several of their backups – but Ingram is playing on a different plane right now. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
This is the area of the Bulldog offense that needs the largest talent infusion. True freshman Chad Bumphis (26 catches, 290 yards, 11.2 avg., 3 TD) leads the list, with undersized tight end Marcus Green (22 catches, 264 yards, 12.0 avg., 2 TD) coming next. Bumphis has also thrown a couple of passes and will take the end-around on occasion, which means he is basically the poor man’s Percy Harvin for this offense. Behind him and and Green are O’Neal Wilder, who has caught 12 passes for 212 yards (17.7 avg.) and 1 touchdown, although the bulk of his yardage came on one big play against a busted coverage. Brandon McRae and Leon Berry are the other starters along with Wilder (Bumphis comes off the bench), while Tay Bowser and Brandon Heavens offer depth. Kendrick Cook backs up Green at tight end. Alabama counters with Julio Jones, who finally had a breakout game against LSU. But he’s not the team’s leading receiver – that honor goes to Marquis Maze (21 catches, 368 yards, 17.5 avg., 2 TD). Darius Hanks, Earl Alexander and Mike McCoy provide depth, with Hanks essentially a starter due to Alabama’s heavy use of three-wide sets. Tight end Colin Peek played only sparingly against LSU due to a knee injury, but should be ready to go for this one. Freshman Michael Williams did a good job in his stead Saturday, and is a big target at more than 6’7”, although he is not yet a polished receiver. Preston Dial and Brad Smelley will split the H-back position. Bumphis has a bright future, and some of the Bulldog receivers aren’t bad players, but Jones and Maze give Alabama a solid edge here, and if Peek is healthy, that edge extends to the tight end slot as well. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Mullen was blessed to have a veteran offensive line already on campus when he arrived. Center J.C. Brignone has put together a nice career. Guards Quentin Saulsberry and Craig Jenkins are good at what they do. Left tackle Derek Sherrod is still a bit raw, but he has awesome physical ability. Addison Lawrence hasn’t done badly in his first year starting at right tackle. Depth is decent, with Chris Spencer a veteran presence inside, D.J. Looney a good backup center and Mark Melichar able to play just about any position. Alabama counters with William Vlachos at center flanked by guards Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones, while James Carpenter and Drew Davis man the tackle slots. The LSU game was by far this unit’s most consistent performance, and if they play anywhere close to last week’s effort in this game, the offense might never be stopped. Depth is a push, but the overall athleticism of the Alabama OL outpaces Mississippi State just a bit. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Mississippi State runs mostly a 4-3 look, and the Bulldogs have several playmakers on this side of the ball. What they don’t have is consistency, or enough overall talent and depth. Mississippi State is a respectable 37th in pass efficiency defense, but is 40th in raw pass defense and much worse off against the run. Alabama counters with its 3-4 over/under scheme that has pretty much dominated everyone in its path in 2009. The Crimson Tide is 2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in pass efficiency defense, 4th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. Alabama also gets far more sacks and tackles for loss than do the Bulldogs.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Pernell McPhee could very well have been a part of Alabama’s 2009 signing class, but a numbers crunch forced him to MSU. It’s been a good move for both parties, as he has nearly half his team’s total sack numbers and has been a headache for offensive coordinators. He starts at defensive end opposite Sean Ferguson, who hasn’t been even half as effective, a testament to the talent issue at hand in Starkville. The tackles are Kyle Love and Charles Burns. Burns is smallish, while Love has the size but isn’t particularly mobile. Depth issues have forced Fletcher Cox, a true defensive end, to play inside off the bench. Brandon Cooper and Nick Bell are the backup ends, but there is nothing behind them and neither player is particularly fear-inducing. Alabama counters with probably the best group in the conference. Terrence Cody and Josh Chapman man the inside, while Brandon Deaderick, Lorenzo Washington, Luther Davis and Marcell Dareus hold down the end positions. Alabama will have to account for McPhee, as well as Cox when he’s on the field, but MSU will have to worry about every single Tide lineman that lines up. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Alabama would gladly take Jamar Chaney on its team right now. Chaney is one of the most unsung SEC linebackers, back for a sixth year after suffering a leg injury in the 2008 opener. He’s the team’s leading tackler and is just at home in coverage as he is rushing the passer or providing run support. K.J. Wright is a physical freak at outside linebacker but needs to play more under control. Chris White is a good weakside backer. These three players occupy the top three places on State’s tackle list. Terrell Johnson, Michael Hunt and Brandon Wilson offer depth, but none play regularly. Alabama counters with the country’s best inside linebacker, Rolando McClain, flanked by Nico Johnson and outside backer Cory Reamer. Eryk Anders continues to have a strong season at the hybrid Jack position. Courtney Upshaw, Chris Jordan and Jerrell Harris provide depth, although Alabama typically uses few bench players in its base linebacker corps. Chaney is an outstanding player, and Wright a major raw talent, but Alabama has been better all around and McClain’s presence is an undeniable edge. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Mississippi State was among the nation’s best in 2008, but graduation hit hard and the 2009 group has been trying to play catch-up the entire year. Marcus Washington, a cornerback, is the lone returning starter from the 2008 secondary. Junior college transfer Maurice Langston lines up opposite him. Langston was such a surprise starter after taking over in the third week of the year that his bio doesn’t even appear on the Mississippi State official site. Damein Anderson offers plenty of experience off the bench. Charles Mitchell and Jonathan Banks start at the safety positions, with Banks showing a particular affinity for interceptions. Wade Bonner and Emmanuel Gatling provide depth. Alabama counters with its cornerback trio of Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson and its safety group of Mark Barron, Justin Woodall, Robby Green and Tyrone King Jr. The Bulldogs have improved steadily over the course of the season, but Alabama is playing much better football at the moment and has an edge both in depth and athleticism. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter Heath Hutchins has had a tough time in 2009, and MSU as a whole is dead last in the conference in net punting and 114th nationally in the stat. The Bulldogs could use a pair of kickers, both JUCO transfers. Sean Brauchle won the job coming out of fall camp, but has been battling a hip injury. Derek DePasquale has kicked the last five games. Both players look fairly reliable from 40 yards in. MSU is mediocre on punt returns but is very good on kickoff returns, placing 28th nationally and 4th in the conference. Alabama counters with Leigh Tiffin at placekicker and P.J. Fitzgerald at punter. Tiffin became the team’s leading scorer all-time last week, and is currently ranked 1st nationally in field goals per game, one of those stats that might not be a good thing. Fitzgerald has been very solid. Alabama’s kick coverage got a lot better once Jerrell Harris came off suspension, but there are still some nervous moments from time to time. Alabama’s return game is a real weapon thanks to Javier Arenas. Both teams have their weak points, but Alabama is just better across the board. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in all eight categories, and comfortably wins both OL-DL matchups. In short, the Tide should roll.

Mississippi State’s best hope for victory is the element of surprise, or failing that, and incredible over-the-head effort combined with officiating weirdness or a meteorite landing at midfield right at kickoff. In other words, if Alabama plays its game, Mississippi State can’t win.

Alabama needs to guard only against looking ahead to Auburn or Florida. The Crimson Tide simply has better athletes, a better coaching staff and a more cohesive system on both sides of the ball than do the Bulldogs, who are still getting accustomed to Mullen’s ways. If Alabama can keep the course and avoid several crippling injuries, this one should be a fairly clear win.

Because of the emotional letdown from beating SEC West rival LSU last week, don’t be surprised to see the score fairly close at halftime. But Alabama should eventually pull away to a two-score win at least.

Alabama 34
Mississippi St. 17