I think it depends on two things:
- McElwain's working relationship with Saban.
- The kind of offense that Texas wants to run.
If he doesn't enjoy working for Saban the taskmaster, he may consider a lateral move. Or if he is given free reign to run any type of offense he wishes, then he may jump at that chance (as opposed to Saban requiring him to run a pro-style offense).
Sorry to pick on you, but I must take issue with this. It's a bit of a pet peeve of mine.
First of all, we do not run a "pro-style" offense, in the classic sense of what a "pro-style" offense is considered. We are a multiple, "one-back" offense and we probably incorporate more spread looks and formations than anything else we run. Particularly this season. Coach Saban has pretty much always been a one-back guy, but I'd say Coach Mac has injected quite a bit of his own personal philosophy into the current flavor of our offense. Like you pointed out, Saban still dictates the overall philosophy and approach of the offense, and I'm sure he has considerable leverage and override authority on what Coach Mac calls. But I'd say he's probably as loose on the reigns with Coach Mac as he's been with any coordinator outside of Jimbo Fisher. So Nick Saban does not
require Coach Mac to run a
pro-style offense. It's more likely that he lays out some parameters, i.e. "we want a power-based run game, play action, a high-percentage passing game, zone blocking, and clock control ability" and lets Coach Mac run with it.
Not sure how appealing the Texas gig would be for him. Judging Mack Brown's comments about wanting to gravitate more towards a power running game, he's likely to tell Coach Mac "I want you to replicate what you did at Alabama in terms of approach, formations, etc." so he probably doesn't get free reign over there, either. They might pony up a few more dollars, which Alabama could probably easily match if it wants. He would get to tee off against generally weaker defensive teams, but again I'm not sure how big of a factor that is. The only way I see Mac leaving for that job is if he feels it better positions him for a prime-time head coaching gig, as opposed to a second-tier HC job - which he's a solid candidate for at the present time. And I'm still not sure that makes complete sense.