Alabama is favored by 24 points against Mississppi State

[Ty Webb]

I think we can cover that, but I thought it would open closer to 18.

There are a number of good games this week. Other notable lines:

A&M opens only -7 against Auburn, but looks to have already moved to -8.5.

Florida -3 against UGA

USCe -14 against Tennessee

OU -14 against ND. That's a little higher than I thought. But, I do think OU wins going away. ND can't score enough points to keep up.

Nebraska -2 against Michigan. I hope Michigan wins due to our SOS.

Arkansas -4 against Ole Miss. This should be an entertaining game. I think Wilson will go wild on the Bear's defense.

KSU -8 over Texas Tech

 

[DiamondDust]

The Alabama/MSU line is going to fluctuate a lot with that big of a number.

 

[Ty Webb]

I just noticed Oregon is favored by 47.5 against Colorado. Wow!!!

I know Colorado is dreadful and Oregon scores points quickly, but that is a very high line for a conference game. I can't recall a higher conference game line.

 

[Im_on_dsp]

Wow! 24 huh? This is why I don't bet on college football. I just couldn't see myself putting money down on odds like that. I'm not saying we can't cover it, that's just a lot to expect against a ranked, undefeated opponent. I might bet if it were 14 or 17, but 24???

 

[Ty Webb]

The Auburn line at +7 against Texas A&M seemed low. It's now moved to +10 within a couple of minutes.

 

[RedStar]

I could easily see us winning 38-13 (on the low side) and that would cover. From what I've seen of both teams, that makes sense.

 

[Bama Reb]

I wouldn't want to be the team that walks onto the gridiron against the MSU Bulldogs thinking that all we have to do is show up and they're going to throw their hands up and roll over in self-imposed defeat. While we may be favored by 24, that doesn't mean much once the game gets started. MSU is a dangerous team with a perpetual chip on it's shoulder, especially when it comes to the Tide.
The very fact of them being undefeated puts the thought into their heads that they can beat us. If we're not absolutely ready for them, they could possibly do just that. If you remember, they've done that to us once before. Yes, to a lesser prepared team with a less intense coach, but the only thing that matters to them is they've done it before so they can do it again. That thought is still in their minds, and this is the SEC, so let's not take anything for granted.

 

[Condor 63]

24 pts? Too high.

I just noticed Oregon is favored by 47.5 against Colorado.

That too.

 

[TrueGritnPluck]

The Auburn line at +7 against Texas A&M seemed low. It's now moved to +10 within a couple of minutes.

Sharps

 

[Rogue Elephant]

Mullen's been there long enough to get his system and players in place.
That being said, they are still, unfortunately, Miss. St., and FWIW, the Bulldogs only managed to put up one (1) single point more on Middle Tennessee than Bama did on Tennessee.
Plus, hung 31 on the Bulldogs.
And Mullen admits Troy Tested his team.
What y'all think Bama's gonna do?
RTR>>>

 

[Tides_of_Change]

It's somewhat of a high line to be a home game. Yes, I meant what I said, a home game. Pure to their business-like approach, it seems that Bama consistently performs better on the road than at home. I'm not basing that on any researched evidence, but more so a gut feeling based on their collective body of work in recent years.

I think the opposing crowd keeps them focused to the task at hand whereas most all home games these days have the feel of an exhibition. There's this pervading sense that winning is a foregone conclusion and everything Coach Saban hates to presume. It seems as though the players react to that feeling, though, and usually leave several plays on the field that are more often than not made on the road. I would actually feel more confident about 24 points in Starkville than T-Town this week even if I'm the only one.


I honestly think a collection of 45-50 players intimidate thousands of fans on the road rather than the other way around, and that's a real feat.

 

[rgw]

I don't think we'll cover 24. We've been able to put up these 40-point games because of points off turnovers. Mississippi State is really in the same mold as us: good run game with an efficient passing attack, good defense, minimal penalties, and high turnover margin. Seeing how neither team is likely to make many mistakes and each will try to control the ball on offense, I don't think we are going to be able to run away from this team under an avalanche of three and outs and turnovers. I could be wrong, we could absolutely shut this team down but I think their offensive balance paired with a good defense makes them one our toughest matchups of the regular season.

Tyler Russell is having a season of similar success to our own QB...we'll have to take away their run game and force him into situations he hasn't dealt with this season.

 

[jthomas666]

As odd as it seems to say about an undefeated opponent, Miss St. is a classic trap game, between Tn and LSU. I'll be happily surprised if we cover that high a spread.

 

[Matt0424]

State is over rated...they benefit from the SEC's weakest first half schedule. I would be willing to bet they lose 4 of their last 5, starting with us covering easily here.

 

[rgw]

Russell isn't the ideal spread quarterback for Mullen but he has given them the offensive balance they haven't had since Mullen arrived. They've been able to run effectively the whole Mullen era but their quarterback play has been erratic at best and nonexistent at worst. It really has been what kept them from having a season like what they're having right now. I think MSU is a concerning matchup because of their placement on the schedule and pure X's and O's. They've played us tough the last few years but we've gassed their defense because of ineffective offensive play.

They should be able to pass well enough this year to keep what they want to do - run the ball - viable against our defense. Those wheel route plays to tailbacks, fullbacks, and h-backs they've ran consistently this season concern me because our scheme is somewhat vulnerable to those passes (they're well known cover-1 beaters). Their defense is just as good as our own at creating takeaway opportunities either through scheme allowing their DBs to step in front of passes or simply active hands on the strip of a carrier. Interceptions haven't been a problem but ball security has been at times this season. Mississippi State will force us to be tight with the ball.

This is a trap game if I've ever seen one. I know I say things every week to try to ground the most optimistic on here, but trust me on this one...it will only take MSU doing what they do to win. If we aren't secure with the ball, they can spring the upset.

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

That's a lot to start out with, but the way these boys are playing it doesn't matter.

 

[Tides_of_Change]

Tyler Russell is having a season of similar success to our own QB...we'll have to take away their run game and force him into situations he hasn't dealt with this season.

Good point. I hadn't realized he'd only thrown one pick so far himself. Impressive considering MSU's historic struggles at the positions. Let's see if we can bait him into throwing two!

 

[GreatDanish]

I really think this is a close game. I am thinking 24-10 (funny to call a 14 point game "close"). Give a 7 point margin of error - we score 17 to 31, they score 3 to 17.

 

[jangalang]

Other notable lines:

A&M opens only -7 against Auburn, but looks to have already moved to -8.5.

It seriously took me a minute to figure out you're referring to the Aggies. I thought it was already time for their matchup with Alabama A&M! :biggrin:

 

[psupoop]

A&M up to 14 now.