Alabama: Tide vs Sooners: X's and O's and Jimmies and Joes

[Padreruf]

Let me say this - if the players take OU lightly, not only will they lose, but they will deserve to lose and get no sympathy from me. It would be that monumentally stupid. And that is why they won't, so relax and enjoy the ride. Alabama wins - BIG.

If they take OU lightly...after KM beating out Tua....NOT.GOING.TO.HAPPEN.

 

[Tidewater]

Let me say this - if the players take OU lightly, not only will they lose, but they will deserve to lose and get no sympathy from me. It would be that monumentally stupid. And that is why they won't, so relax and enjoy the ride. Alabama wins - BIG.

You're right, of course. I've seen Bama (under the greatest coach ever, I might add) lose to Louisiana Monroe (okay, Coach Saban's 1st year and not everyone had bought in), Utah (consolation game after losing to Timmy, and Bama's starting QB was photographed in a freaking bar at 2:30 in the morning on 1 January; I know because I saw the shot and know the guy to snapped it), another consolation game after losing to the Cow College on an unusual play, and another team which I need not mention. Sometimes even Coach Saban's teams lay an emotional egg.
On the other hand, I've seen Coach Saban's team play angry and take it out on Michigan State in 2010/11 and that game was quite the whoopin'.
A lot depends on how focused the team is. Play with focus like they did against poor Sparty and I'll be drinking Virginia bourbon in the 4th quarter.

 

[deliveryman35]

Mac and Dylan both have their work cut out for them. They need to live in the film room for the next 3 weeks. If both of them are effective it wouldn’t surprise me if both end up with tackles in the double digit range.

 

[owenfieldreams]

Tease, Morris, and Calcaterra are all technically TE's with WR skills. When they are in the slot they are a real challenge for LB's and Safeties. One other thing Riley does well is scheme variations off of plays that we've previously shown. And then there's our Oline. One of 3 finalists for the Joe Moore award along with you line and the Georgia Oline. This line blocks both the run and pass well. 4 starters with 2-3 years experience and a RS freshman center who Riley calls the best football player on the team.

 

[BamaInMo1]

For better or worse, I think Tua losing and KM winning the Heisman last night will add extra motivation to the team as a whole. OU is talented. Got great schemes. D line needs to fill the passing lanes and get hands up if they can't get to the qb. Batted down passes are a good thing. We don't have to get a sack every play. Just have to affect the timing and the qb play. This is gonna be a good game.

 

[Maxbama]

If Tua's ankle allows him to be more mobile than the SECCG, we won't see the turnovers and dropped passes we saw against GA. His lack of mobility affected his delivery. Receivers were not accustomed to the ball delivery on the drops. They didn't have the typical zing he puts on them. Same with both turnovers - his delivery was affected by his ankle injury. The balls didn't have the usual zip and were slightly off. I expect we will dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and will use all aspects of our offense to move the ball and score. I expect we will take away the run game and put the whole thing on Murray's shoulders. We will play 5 to 6 DBs and spy Murray with Moses. Will OK score? Sure. But they will have to execute long sustained drives to do it. Can they score enough? Only if we help them with turnovers and poor execution.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

I just think To stop Sooner's offense, we have to impose our will against the offense... We need to mix things up. Go after Kyler as much we can, but make sure there is someone to keep him from breakng loose. I want Kyler to be confused about what's going on... Make him question his decisions. We've been pretty good with our blitzes for the most part. only weakness I see in our Defense are Mack Wilson and Carter. Both have good and bad moments throughout the season. If they can step their games up, Defense will be real good. There is a good chance they will come out with a different look, but I think we will be fine. Our offense does not need to be vanilla. We need to pick what will work. Don't get cute, Tua to recognize checkdowns when necessary and we will be fine.

 

[Probius]

Looking at OU's defense, there are two guys to watch out for. #9 Kenneth Murray and #18 Curtis Bolton. Murray has 140 tackles, 12 TFL, and 4.0 sacks. Bolton has 133 tackles, 11.5 TFL, and 4.0 sacks. Both men are linebackers and a bit on the small size. Murray is 6'2" 238, and Bolton is 6'0" 218. I find it surprising that these two guys both have so many tackles on the season.

 

[cubzwin]

Putting a spy on Murray is easier said than done. Got to cover all the eligible receivers and the running back out of the backfield. So you hold back a rusher and let him lurk at the line of scrimmage? Have you seen Murray run? Not an easy open field tackle. When Kaepernick played in college at UNReno teams always put a spy on him and he still ran for big yards.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Putting a spy on Murray is easier said than done. Got to cover all the eligible receivers and the running back out of the backfield. So you hold back a rusher and let him lurk at the line of scrimmage? Have you seen Murray run? Not an easy open field tackle. When Kaepernick played in college at UNReno teams always put a spy on him and he still ran for big yards.

They have to commit five OL so there's a max of five skill players plus KM. Bama has covered similar schemes before. KM is excellent but he's not Superman.

Be real, Kap played against crappy defenses.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

Two of the top programs in college football square of 12/29/18 in Miami.

We've talked about Kyler and Tua in detail and the two defenses in more general terms.

Less discussed have been the overall talent (including groups and other individuals), strategies, schemes, and tactics of each team.

Oklahoma seems to have a lot of talent across the board. I haven't looked at recruiting rankings for them, but two straight years in the CFP and last year had UGA dead to rights but couldn't finish the deal. They have playmakers on offense and their maligned defense is still quite talented and physical.

This is the place to discuss schemes, vulnerabilities, strengths, matchups, and the like. What has or will work against them? Where is the Tide vulnerable to them?

I'd like more detail than "they are horrible on defense and Bama will impose their will!", but that's OK too.

I know a few posters will get deep into the stats, making some of our eyes pop out. I'm good with that also.

But how do our receivers match up in individual battles? How will OU scheme against our O? And so on.

This will be either Alabama's toughest or next toughest game of the year to date (behind UGA). ND would have been the easier team to beat by far.

I look forward to the game, but before then to good discussions with some of the most knowledgeable college football fans around.

I hope our Oklahoma posters will chime in as well. Fair warning, we don't tolerate smack (those already here know that).

Join in and Roll Tide!

Allow me to approach the answer differently.
Oklahoma plays teams who don't put much emphasis on Defense.
A lot of those football games turn into Pitch and catch.
No one is controlling the clock. That's our job.
Their fans love all the scoring, but neglect for Defense hurts them when they play teams who do play Defense. Another point... Since little emphasis is given to Defense,
Strength and Conditioning programs place more emphasis on lean fast twitch muscles, and less emphasis on physical power. Teams that run the ball must have strong men who can stand and impose their will on the other team.
NOW...
When we play OK, we must cover their receivers until one of our guys can get into their backfield. Sounds easy, but isn't.
We need to keep OK in third and long situations.
Since Murray likes to scramble, we need to make him hold the ball, or throw into cover...

On Offense, we need to test OK with the run. Run it till they adjust.
We need a good to great game out of our receivers. We can't bounce the ball off our receivers in this game. Tua and Jalen need a good to great game.

Lastly...
Our Offensive coaches had better have their heads in the game for 60 minutes.
If we get ahead, we can't afford to slack off and run out the clock.
We need to put points on the board.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

They have to commit five OL so there's a max of five skill players plus KM. Bama has covered similar schemes before. KM is excellent but he's not Superman.

Be real, Kap played against crappy defenses.

AND... Kappernick didn't win a lot of games against good Defenses.
He also got worse in the NFL when he played against good Defenses.

 

[owenfieldreams]

I've mentioned Riley's skill as a schemer and play caller. A great example of his skills are in our first series on O in the Rose Bowl. One our first play from scrimmage we handed the ball to Anderson on a straight zone read. Ledbetter came in unblocked and stuffed Rodney. This was not a bust, it was a deliberate effort to see how the Ga. LB's would react. When they showed total and aggressive down hill commitment to stop the run our next three plays were passes over the middle to our H-back and TE respectively who were running in space vacated by the LB's. On the scoring play Mayfield held the read fake forever as he drew the D in to stop the run. Once Ga. tipped their hand on aggressive downhill LB play the dye was cast. The question will be how will Saban scheme our O and how will Riley counter.

 

[owenfieldreams]

To ensure balance in my perspective on Riley here are some things that Sooner fans will all agree on in terms of his weaknesses: he has a tendency to get greedy. When it appears we can run at will he will waste downs taking a shot or two; he seems to not adjust at the half but instead he waits to see what the opponents halftime adjustments are. This often results in sluggish 3rd qtrs. Finally, he tends to get conservative when we get a big lead.

 

[RTR91]

Stat time....

Reminder for those not familiar, the season average of opponents is done in games not against Alabama or Oklahoma.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 800, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Defense[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]YPG[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards Against[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Difference[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]PPG[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Points Against[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Difference[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Plays Per Game[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Plays Against[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards Per Play[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards Per Play Against[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]416.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]448.08[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31.13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]29.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32.38[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.43[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.361[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.75[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]UA[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]424.82[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]295.38[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-129.44[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31.64[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14.85[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-16.8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]69.43[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6.11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 800, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Offense[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]YPG Allowed[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Difference[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]PPG Allowed[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Points[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Difference[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Plays Per Game Allowed[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Plays[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards Per Play Allowed[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Yards Per Play[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]OU[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]388.74[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]577.92[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]194.18[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]49.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]23.77[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]69.54[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.08[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.52[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8.84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]UA[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]371.3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]527.62[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]156.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.92[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]22.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67.2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]66.62[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.51[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


OU's defense is remarkably bad. Opponents exceed yards, points, plays, and yards per play against them. That's really bad. Really bad.

Taking what each offense does plus what the opposing defense does and averaging them, I have Alabama winning 52-35 and out-gaining OU 581-450 in yards. I suspect OU gets more than 450, though.

Also worth noting OU has not played many good pass defenses. They've played one defense ranked in the top 50 in pass efficiency defense (TCU at #43).

 

[deliveryman35]

Though LB play will be critical, I think the most fascinating matchup may be our Dline vs the Sooner Oline. We all know how good both are along with all the accolades. Will it take a double team to keep Q and/or Buggs out of the backfield? Or Will we need to bring more pressure to counter? I think we will know the answer sometime late in the first qtr once everyone settles down. This will probably set the tone for everything else.

 

[uafan4life]

Tease, Morris, and Calcaterra are all technically TE's with WR skills. When they are in the slot they are a real challenge for LB's and Safeties. One other thing Riley does well is scheme variations off of plays that we've previously shown. And then there's our Oline. One of 3 finalists for the Joe Moore award along with you line and the Georgia Oline. This line blocks both the run and pass well. 4 starters with 2-3 years experience and a RS freshman center who Riley calls the best football player on the team.

From the highlights and few complete games I've watched, it's uncanny how much time Murray has had to throw in the pocket. There was one touchdown pass, in particular, where he had over five seconds to find a receiver open in the end-zone. I'm hoping he won't have anywhere near that kind of time against us, even if we only rush three or four.

However, the thing that most struck me was how it seemed like on 90% of Murray's throws, the receiver to whom he was throwing was basically, if not completely, wide open.

Can you shed some light on how Murray has performed when every receiver is well covered, or at least close to it? Has he shown the ability to hit tight windows? Or does he simply tuck and run in those instances?


When it comes to evaluating passing defenses, I tend to look at opponents' passer rating versus Power 5 competition first. In that stat, the four best defenses you guys faced was Iowa State, Texas, TCU, and Texas again. Only one of those teams, TCU, ranks in the top half of Power 5 teams in that stat - and just barely, at 32nd out of 64. Whereas Alabama is currently ranked 10th and has faced the 2nd, 4th, and 12th ranked Power 5 teams in that stat.

And, just to go ahead and respond to the typical, Big-12-offenses-are-better spiel, let's glance at the offensive passing efficiency versus Power 5 teams statistic...

In that stat, Oklahoma and Alabama are ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the country. Oklahoma has faced five offenses in the top half of Power 5 teams in that stat. Alabama, meanwhile, has only faced four offenses in the top half of Power 5 teams in that stat. However, including Alabama, there are a total of nine SEC teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in offensive passing efficiency versus Power 5 teams compared to the Big 12's six teams.

Another related stat to look at is related to pressuring the QB: sacks per game versus Power 5 competition. (I'd prefer any type of QB pressure but sacks is the easiest stat to find.)

Currently, Alabama and Oklahoma are ranked 1st and 25th among Power 5 teams in this stat. Oklahoma has faced six teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in this stat but no one higher than 19th. Alabama, meanwhile, has only faced four teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in this stat but three of them are 12th or better. There are also two additional SEC teams which Bama didn't play that are ranked in the top half, as well.

So the bottom line, from a statistical perspective at the very least, is that Oklahoma and Murray should be facing not only the best overall defense - by a wide margin - they've seen all season but should specifically be facing better coverage on the back end combined with heavier pressure than they've faced all season.

Having - I'm assuming - watched all of Oklahoma's games this season with a keen eye, which game(s) would you say are the ones where Murray faced the best coverage on the back end? And, if different, which game(s) under the heaviest pass rush?

 

[uafan4life]

And, just to again address the whole Big-12-offenses-are-better spiel from some other statistical perspectives...



Number of teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in Offensive Yards per Play versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 4
SEC: 5


Number of teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in Defensive Yards per Play versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 3
SEC: 7


Number of teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in Offensive Points per Game versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 5
SEC: 7


Number of teams in the top half of Power 5 teams in Defensive Points per Game versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 5
SEC: 8


Number of teams averaging at least 6.2 Yards per Play versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 2
SEC: 3


Number of teams giving up at most 5.1 Yards per Play versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 0
SEC: 4


Number of teams scoring at least 31.9 Points per Game versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 3
SEC: 3


Number of teams giving up at most 20.7 Points per Game versus Power 5 competition:
Big 12: 0
SEC: 4



So it seems, statistically at least, that not only are SEC defenses better than those in the Big 12 but SEC offenses are also better than those in the Big 12...

 

[TideEngineer08]

If Tua's ankle allows him to be more mobile than the SECCG, we won't see the turnovers and dropped passes we saw against GA. His lack of mobility affected his delivery. Receivers were not accustomed to the ball delivery on the drops. They didn't have the typical zing he puts on them. Same with both turnovers - his delivery was affected by his ankle injury. The balls didn't have the usual zip and were slightly off. I expect we will dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and will use all aspects of our offense to move the ball and score. I expect we will take away the run game and put the whole thing on Murray's shoulders. We will play 5 to 6 DBs and spy Murray with Moses. Will OK score? Sure. But they will have to execute long sustained drives to do it. Can they score enough? Only if we help them with turnovers and poor execution.

You just suggested something I had not considered, regarding the drops. And it makes sense. Those were all after the initial injury on the first drive. The WRs/TEs had learned the feel of a Tua thrown pass and yes, after that injury, his passes obviously lost some heat, because he couldn't plant his foot well enough. If you are expecting a ball to hit your hands with a higher velocity than it actually does, 9 times out of 10 you are going to drop it.

I'm sorry. Out of all the wackiness of that championship game, the drops have bothered me the most because I couldn't explain them.

 

[uafan4life]

One more stat before I'm done for the morning...

The Big 12 conference is undoubtedly the home of giving up the big play!

The number of teams in the SEC versus the Big 12 who are in the top half of preventing 20+ yard plays from scrimmage versus Power 5 teams goes about like you'd expect but there's an interesting correlation between the two.

The Big 12's best team at not giving up 20+ yard plays from scrimmage is a tie between Iowa State and Kansas State, who've given up 43 such plays on the season.
The SEC's worst team at giving up 20+ yard plays from scrimmage is Ole Miss, who's given up 53 such plays on the season.

However, there are five SEC teams who've given up fewer than 43 such plays on the season, including Alabama.
And there are also five Big 12 teams who've given up at least 53 such plays on the season, including Oklahoma.

Over a third of the SEC is better than the Big 12's best at not giving up big plays while exactly half of the Big 12 is as bad as or worse than the SEC's worst!!!