Pick the score: Alabama vs. Auburn

[BamaMoon]

I finally got the courage to check this thread out and it's a little embarrassing IMO. Good posters who don't feel very confident about the game and predicting a close loss are being shamed.

So if you don't have a winning prediction you shouldn't post in a prediction thread??? Do we just want to reduce this board to a sounding board?

OK, for me, I think we get it done and win by 7-10 points but there are a few reasons why I don't feel too confident about the game too. And I don't think I'm being pessimistic but rather realistic.

 

[B1GTide]

So if you don't have a winning prediction you shouldn't post in a prediction thread???

Well, I was taught that if you don't have something good to say, keep your thought to yourself. So, yeah, maybe.

There are other threads to express concerns, so not a sounding board.

 

[CajunCrimson]

I finally got the courage to check this thread out and it's a little embarrassing IMO. Good posters who don't feel very confident about the game and predicting a close loss are being shamed.

So if you don't have a winning prediction you shouldn't post in a prediction thread??? Do we just want to reduce this board to a sounding board?

OK, for me, I think we get it done and win by 7-10 points but there are a few reasons why I don't feel too confident about the game too. And I don't think I'm being pessimistic but rather realistic.

Why would anyone predict us to lose? Based on what? Are we a worse team than UF or UGA? What is it that everyone that's picking us to lose is so afraid of?

 

[TideEngineer08]

The game that keeps coming back to my mind is the 2001 game, in Auburn. We came in at 4-5, and they were 7-2. The reason I'm recalling it is Tyler Watts was our starting QB throughout the year but had gotten hurt and was not going to be able to play against Auburn. They were favored, decently, and really no one was giving us much of a chance to win even though our backup QB was a veteran who had been through several tough games in his career - Andrew Zow. Zow had lost his starting position because Watts was a better runner, which fRAN's offense called for.

We won going away, 31-7. Ahmad Galloway and Santonio Beard had huge games running the ball, and Zow was very efficient and had a big day passing.

I think the emotional/mental side of the game favors us going in. And that is rare in this game. We are usually having to overcome that. I think we play lights out, Mac has a big day, but particularly, Najee does both running the ball and receiving. The game is close but we separate ourselves in the second half and win going away, 30-13. That's 3 TDs and 3 FGs, by the way. Yes, our kicker is going to have a great game. It's 10-10 at halftime and we'll outscore them 20-3 in the second half.

Roll Tide!

 

[BamaMoon]

The game that keeps coming back to my mind is the 2001 game, in Auburn. We came in at 4-5, and they were 7-2. The reason I'm recalling it is Tyler Watts was our starting QB throughout the year but had gotten hurt and was not going to be able to play against Auburn. They were favored, decently, and really no one was giving us much of a chance to win even though our backup QB was a veteran who had been through several tough games in his career - Andrew Zow. Zow had lost his starting position because Watts was a better runner, which fRAN's offense called for.

We won going away, 31-7. Ahmad Galloway and Santonio Beard had huge games running the ball, and Zow was very efficient and had a big day passing.

I think the emotional/mental side of the game favors us going in. And that is rare in this game. We are usually having to overcome that. I think we play lights out, Mac has a big day, but particularly, Najee does both running the ball and receiving. The game is close but we separate ourselves in the second half and win going away, 30-13. That's 3 TDs and 3 FGs, by the way. Yes, our kicker is going to have a great game. It's 10-10 at halftime and we'll outscore them 20-3 in the second half.

Roll Tide!

The only place I disagree with you here is that Mac Jones isn't comparable to Andrew Zow in this scenario. AZ had lots of real game experience and my biggest concern about MJ is that he does not.

I'm not saying he won't play well, but his play under these circumstances is the big unknown for this game.

 

[TideEngineer08]

The only place I disagree with you here is that Mac Jones isn't comparable to Andrew Zow in this scenario. AZ had lots of real game experience and my biggest concern about MJ is that he does not.

I'm not saying he won't play well, but his play under these circumstances is the big unknown for this game.

True. It's the starter replaced by the backup that I'm comparing it. A lot breaks down after that except that it seems many, if not most, of the pundits aren't giving us much of a chance. Or they are, but ultimately figure Auburn will win.

I think the emotional side of things favors us heavily. We'll see.

 

[BamaMoon]

True. It's the starter replaced by the backup that I'm comparing it. A lot breaks down after that except that it seems many, if not most, of the pundits aren't giving us much of a chance. Or they are, but ultimately figure Auburn will win.

I think the emotional side of things favors us heavily. We'll see.

Yes, agree on that point. AU fans are really negative about this game. I can't imagine how they'd feel it Tua was healthy.

 

[CajunCrimson]

The only place I disagree with you here is that Mac Jones isn't comparable to Andrew Zow in this scenario. AZ had lots of real game experience and my biggest concern about MJ is that he does not.

I'm not saying he won't play well, but his play under these circumstances is the big unknown for this game.

But look at the receivers he has vs what Zow had....

 

[trenda]

I find it interesting that the sole focus for many in this game is Mac vs Auburn's DL and hardly any focus or advantage given to what a mismatch our skill players (Najee and the Ryde Outs) can provide.

I personally think our skill players have an opportunity in this game to blow it wide open on offense. With the right play calling, our skill players can potentially neutralize their DL and by the 4th quarter have them completely winded.

To me, the skill players - along with play calling - are the key to this game for us on offense. Mac does NOT have to be the focus as long as he plays mistake free football.

 

[Con]

I still like Bama to win but I'm curious for those of you who are projecting that Alabama scores 30+ points in this game - what is your line of thinking there? LSU couldn't muster more than 23 points at home against these guys, even with Burrow throwing for 321 yards. No one has scored more than 24 on them all season.

I think a great offensive output for us in this game would be 20 points, particularly with the backup QB starting his first road game. Our defense will need to play a whale of a game.

I'm going to say Bama 17-12.

I can't speak for everybody, but since Coach Saban has arrived I believe we have the ability to put the smack down on anyone we play no matter the circumstances.

 

[BamaMoon]

I find it interesting that the sole focus for many in this game is Mac vs Auburn's DL

Mac does NOT have to be the focus as long as he plays mistake free football.

I think you just answered your question.

MJ is the one player (other than the center) who will touch the ball every play.

I think those who are nervous about the game are living with the reality that MJ is untested in this type of game. I think they are unfairly getting "mooooood" when it seems others are just acting like we know MJ is up to the task.

I'm not saying anything JessN didn't say about the uncertainty here about MJ with the AU DL in his face. How he handles this is anybody's guess. To act like we know he can is kinda like whistling past the graveyard.

FWIW, IF Jones is up to the task and can get the ball to our playmakers then you are correct IMO. But, let's face it, it all starts with MJ and until we see it we won't know.

I'm hopeful he plays well but being concerned about it doesn't make me less of a fan.

 

[B1GTide]

I think you just answered your question.

MJ is the one player (other than the center) who will touch the ball every play.

I think those who are nervous about the game are living with the reality that MJ is untested in this type of game. I think they are unfairly getting "mooooood" when it seems others are just acting like we know MJ is up to the task.

I'm not saying anything JessN didn't say about the uncertainty here about MJ with the AU DL in his face. How he handles this is anybody's guess. To act like we know he can is kinda like whistling past the graveyard.

FWIW, IF Jones is up to the task and can get the ball to our playmakers then you are correct IMO. But, let's face it, it all starts with MJ and until we see it we won't know.

I'm hopeful he plays well but being concerned about it doesn't make me less of a fan.

You understand that if the o-line plays well, Mac will have plenty of time, right? And we know how he plays when he has time. He can't block for himself. He will not decide this game.

 

[BamaMoon]

You understand that if the o-line plays well, Mac will have plenty of time, right? And we know how he plays when he has time. He can't block for himself. He will not decide this game.

There's a reason why the media is focusing in on him, right? We might not agree with everything they say pro or con, but I think it's shortsighted to not acknowledge the importance of his play in this game.

I don't disagree the OL must play well too. I don't disagree that Mac played well against Ark. and WC, but Jones has never done what he will need to do Saturday either.

Again, not saying Jones can't or won't play well. What I'm saying is nobody knows and it's something we're just going to have to wait and see about.

 

[BamaMoon]

I know this is the prediction thread so I'll back out of this thread. I've got my concerns but still think we'll manage a win by 7-10 points. I'll say 23-16.

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

...it seems many, if not most, of the pundits aren't giving us much of a chance...

I just did a little desktop research. Most indicators and pundits seem to favor Alabama.

Spread: Alabama -3 to -3.5
Money line: Alabama -165
FPI: Alabama 65% (not sure I trust this one, given the reliance on season results to date)
Sports Illustrated: 6 of 7 pick Alabama
Sporting News: Predicts Alabama by 7



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ALA2262]

Simulation #2692 was my score prediction of 27-23. So i've got a chance! :biggrin2: At least one in 2692.

http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameS...ayTeam=Alabama&AwayYear=2020&hs=1&hSchedule=0


FINAL SCORE

	23

​

27

​

 

[Ledsteplin]

You understand that if the o-line plays well, Mac will have plenty of time, right? And we know how he plays when he has time. He can't block for himself. He will not decide this game.

I'm not so sure the Auburn defense will respect Mac enough to bring a huge pass rush, as they might against Tua. At least early on, before they make those adjustments. But I think Mac is capable of handling a pass rush as well as Tua would. If they come a lot with a huge pass rush we can't stop or hinder, it won't matter who the QB is, they'll have a tough time.

 

[Tide-one-on]

Bama 27
Barn. 20

 

[BamaInBham]

Apparently not.

Sure they can, it's just that others can give their opinion about the loser's opinion. Nothing wrong with that. Why are you bothered that some don't like supposed Alabama fans who pick against her? This is an opinion board - and we offer opinions on opinions.

 

[BamaMoon]

I'm not so sure the Auburn defense will respect Mac enough to bring a huge pass rush, as they might against Tua. At least early on, before they make those adjustments. But I think Mac is capable of handling a pass rush as well as Tua would. If they come a lot with a huge pass rush we can't stop or hinder, it won't matter who the QB is, they'll have a tough time.

Two questions:

1. If they think Mac can't handle a huge rush, why would they not bring it to begin with? Why wait and see if he can get comfortable without the rush?

2. Do you really believe Mac can handle a rush like Tua??? Tua processes info as fast as any college QB we've seen in a while. It's just not realistic to believe Mac can deal with a heavy rush as successful as Tua.

FWIW, If I'm Auburn I'm bringing the heat early and often on Jones. I hope Sark has planned for this and has a bunch of fast-developing plays ready to go! Getting the ball out quick to our speedy receivers is a must!