I think you might see some changes in office space....less Class A space, more “hoteling.”
But by and large, I think overall attitudes and behaviors will return to 2019 more quickly than many believe.
The reason for that is that in my almost 62 years on this earth, I’ve seen several major events that the public and media said were “paradigm shifts.” They weren’t. Not for long at least.
1985 — We’ll never waste another oil boom. Twenty years later, they were saying the same thing. Now, 15 years after that, oil field services are repeating.
1990 — We’ll never overbuild commercial real estate again. Keep in mind, this was after the REIT debacle of the mid-70s and before 2008-12. Real estate is the crack cocaine of the banking industry and politicians.
2001 — The terrorists have united us. We’ll never disintegrate into petty bickering again. Took about 2 years for that to start, and now red and blue can’t agree on anything other than that the other is Hitler re-visited.
2001 — The tech bubble isn’t a bubble....it’s a realistic evaluation of the future of the industry. 2005 says hello. 2021 might be saying the same thing. We’ll have to see, but Tesla at over 100x projected earnings is 1,000% unsustainable. Price will go down or earnings will rise. I have my own opinion on that, but again, we’ll have to see.
2008 — We’ll never overbuild residential real estate again. So far, we haven’t. But a lot of that has to do with historically low interest rates. Remains to be seen.
2012 — OK, we did it after 1985, and again in 2010. But we’ll never overbuild oilfield services again. 2021 says hello.
2013 — Man! That was a tough 4 years! I promise I won’t spend every paycheck again. I’ll save and build an emergency fund, and invest, and never carry a credit card balance over a month-end ever again. 2020 says hello.
2017 — Whew! Dodged a bullet with Roy Moore. But that guy has a bunch of crazies supporting him. He’ll run again and win. Comes 2020, and Moore couldn’t finish better than 4th.
2020 — I’m going to use the covid lockdowns to lose weight, train for a marathon, learn a new language, work on my marriage, whatever. 3Q2021 — Please let me have that free time back....I promise not to waste it again.
2021 — Whew! I’m glad Donald Trump is out of office. But beware! He has a bunch of crazies supporting him. He could run again and win. I really don’t think so. When emotions have had a chance to die down (and if the blues are smart, they’ll do just that), I think the general public will realize what a disaster he was. True, he might hold on to a 25% hard core, but that won’t win him anything.
Humans are going to be humans. The most recent painful experience is a great teacher so long as the pain persists. As the pain fades into a memory of pain, and then to just a vague memory of discomfort that we eventually overcame, we revert to where we were before the pain.
And eventually, the voters get it right, though it can sometimes take a do-over or two.
