4 is far too rational at this point...LOL! If this type of realignment happens then all bets are off -- and the concept of a "regional conference" goes out the window.
What exactly do they think they're going to do, compete with the NFL or something?
Conferences don't want to die and the member schools don't want to be without a power conference, so if you do kill the Big 12 those teams just scatter to the other conferences and shore them up.
Even looking at the Big 12, Texas Tech (third most important program in a massive state) and Kansas (huge) basketball power are not likely to end up without a power conference home. Even (technical) conference outsiders like BYU and Notre Dame seem like they could find a permanent home if they felt they had to. Let's not even get into the insane idea of the Pac-12 dying, then you have Southern Cal, UCLA, Oregon, and Stanford looking for a home?
You kill one conference (the Big 12 for example) and then you have the AAC trying to take their place. You try to kill the Pac-12, you have all those teams that are well off financially, well backed, and several of which are in a huge state looking for a place to go.
I just don't see a non-insane way you get less than four conferences, and that's why so much of this talk sounds insane to me. College football doesn't work without places like California, Michigan and Ohio State. Not sure what the SEC thinks they are trying to build here...
To put this into context, Alabama has an all time winning percentage of .729, Oklahoma is .726, and Texas is .704. Something has to give here. Some of that revenue and enthusiasm will dry up once traditional winners start to lose.