Game Thread: Georgia vs Auburn (Saturday @ 2:30 CST)

[T Bone]

ah, here we go, the big game for the bragging rights for the State of Georgia.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Georgia will be exposed as soon as they play a high powered offense. I was thinking this would be Florida but now it looks like it will be the SECCG. Here is a breakdown of offensive efficiency on games played vs games yet to play. See a pattern?

View attachment 19578

*Edit: The numbers are even worse for them if GA Tech is added.

Here's the defensive efficiency numbers. Expect UGA offense to experience an uptick the rest of the season.
View attachment 19579

Excellent information, Mike.

I am curious about the color-coding. In the Defensive Efficiency for games already played, the average efficiency for our opponents vs. UGA’s opponents is really close, and the ordinal rank is the same.

But their Played numbers are coded green whereas ours are red. So I’m curious as to why that might be.

It also looks like UGAs opponents’ defensive performance is skewed downward by horrendous numbers for Vandy and Missouri. Aside from those two, the average rank for all opponents, played or yet to be played, is roughly 23 — on par with UK or UF. Which says that UGA’s offense is doing at least OK against really good competition.

I am surprised at MSU’s defensive rank thus far. Might have something to do with already having played two bad offenses — LSU and aTm. Regardless, all that will shake out over the course of the season.

I do hope you continue to post updates, or a link where we can go to find the information. It’s really interesting.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Auburn's JH voodoo is vastly overrated, especially vs UGA. Even vs the SEC: Since 2007 vs SEC teams in JH, AU is 36-21, since 2014 19-10.

A fair enough point.

In the last 16 years UGA is 13-3, including 5-3 in J-H. Those 3 wins by AU include a NC team, NC runner-up team, and an SEC West winning team. I.e., those AU teams who beat UGA were great or very good.

Except this is kind of a circular argument since THE REASON THEY WON those championships/played for them is because of the nonsense that happened, most notably in 2013.

No one would claim that this year's AU team is any of the above and this is one of UGA's better teams.

Except the flaw in this is that all those games were played in NOVEMBER, when we could get a good feel for the whole deal. This game is just as teams are starting to separate themselves. And yeah, Georgia LOOKS good, but how often have we seen Auburn looks mediocre and then come up big at home against a big foe?

(Though IMO UGA is overrated, especially their D; it it still very good, maybe great, but not transcendent like some are claiming - at least it hasn't been proven yet. They have played the #s 72, 98, 103, 108, 126 scoring teams - that's out of 130 teams. It's not their fault, but the teams they've played have dreadful offenses. Even Ark is statistically below average, and in reality they're a little worse than that. Also, UGA's weaker point is their secondary and they have not played a passing offense better than 85 out of 130. UGA's D has played better than Bama's overall but not sure what it means at this point.)

I concur.

Their offense has been OK. It may be better than that since they haven't been pushed except vs Clemson, who does still have a good defense, though their offense is putrid.

Yes, anything can happen, but history and most importantly, this year's teams, say UGA should have a relatively comfortable win.

Look, Auburn's JHS voodoo is sorta like that irrelevant statistic regarding LSU in Saturday night games, a stat compiled largely by beating senseless the low riders of the pigskin club (kinda like Michigan's win total or Oklahoma's long winning streak against a bunch of teams with names and no recruits).

But it's one of those things that's just THERE.

And in the case of Georgia, we have a team that historically underachieves on the field with one that historically overachieves.

If you asked me based on what I've seen so far this year, I'd give UGA the nod. Auburn has that 1-in-10 chance of Georgia showing up with their minds elsewhere and falling apart.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Not on offense, they don't.

Five games into the season they're ranked 119th in total offense and 108th in scoring offense...

With that kind of pulse it's time to reach for the defibrillator....

Yes, but those numbers are artificially low due to those monster defenses in the Athletically Challenged Conference!

 

[MikeInBama]

@4Q Basket Case

2025 Efficiencies College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 Efficiencies College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

This is where I got the efficiency numbers. I used color scales on the individual team stats independently of the average of played us vs UGA. So we had played much better offenses compared to UGA already while UGA has better offenses yet to play compared to us. You're correct that being in the East brings Vandy and Mizzou who are awful compared to Arkansas/Miss schools.

 

[jjv0004]

Most curious to see if Auburn can put some points on Georgia. Auburn should get beat pretty bad but I want to see if Auburn can throw it on them at all. Georgia has faced some pathetic passing teams so far.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

"Stetson Bennett will the the quarterback for Georgia as they go forward." ~ Chris Lowe

 

[AUDub]

"Stetson Bennett will the the quarterback for Georgia as they go forward." ~ Chris Lowe

Well that's good but we actually have to stop the run game for that to matter.

 

[AUDub]

Most curious to see if Auburn can put some points on Georgia. Auburn should get beat pretty bad but I want to see if Auburn can throw it on them at all. Georgia has faced some pathetic passing teams so far.

Their secondary is their weakness but "greased pig mode" Bo isn't going to have much success if UGA comes after him. Their front 7 is big, fast and disciplined. They'll be able to contain him better than LSU ever did too.

 

[crimsonaudio]

What’s Going To Happen

The Georgia defense will take over once again.

Auburn will be rocking, the defense will be terrific, and the energy will be enough to get up early.

A Bennett pick will have something to do with that.

But the Georgia lines will once again be the star, Bennett will settle in, and again, the D will lock down. The Tigers will have their chances, but the Dawgs will own the second half to get out alive.

CFN's Fiutak has UGA winning 30-16

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Their secondary is their weakness but "greased pig mode" Bo isn't going to have much success if UGA comes after him. Their front 7 is big, fast and disciplined. They'll be able to contain him better than LSU ever did too.

This is in line with my thoughts.

 

[AUDub]

CFN's Fiutak has UGA winning 30-16

He had us losing to LSU last week too so I hope he gets a streak going lol.

 

[BamaDMD]

"Stetson Bennett will the the quarterback for Georgia as they go forward." ~ Chris Lowe

Do you have a link to that?

Does this mean the rest of the season or game to game.

 

[Al A Bama]

I don’t think Jordan Hare’s voodoo will come into play in this game

We’ll weird things do happen in that haunted stadium. I’m not sure that the Tigers, I mean War Eagles, I mean the Plainsmen will even score. Well they do have a decent field goal kicker.

It’s not October 31, but it is still October and weird things do happen in October and November in the ugliest city on the Plains and in that haunted stadium.

My prediction: UGA 42 to au 3.

 

[bamaslammer]

The issue that might get Auburn is their defense just might suck at stopping the run and Georgia can run it quite well, and generally will until you prove you can stop it. If that happens it will shorten the game and Nix will have to come up with a circus miracle on virtually every series. That a lot to ask.

 

[colbysullivan]

UGA is much better than the Barn. Yes, weird things happen in JHS but that won’t save them. UGA by at least 3 TDs.

 

[CoolBreeze]

UGA is much better than the Barn. Yes, weird things happen in JHS but that won’t save them. UGA by at least 3 TDs.

it is a 2:30 kick so you may be right. If it were a night game I'd have to say it will be closer. I don't know, UGA is far and away talent-wise. But I believe the AU coach is much better and that added with the want to factor at home bodes well for keeping the game interesting...at least, until late in the 4th quarter.

 

[CB4]

This game could be the exact opposite of what the Barn faced last week in Baton Rouge. UGA may rush the ball 50+ times where LSU gave up on the run by mid 3rd quarter and ended up throwing 50 times.
If UGA starts getting chunk yards on the ground, Monken doesn’t have any problems telling Benett to “turn right or turn left and hand it off”.

 

[Cruloc]

I'll go with Georgia 34-10.

 

[AUDub]

The issue that might get Auburn is their defense just might suck at stopping the run and Georgia can run it quite well, and generally will until you prove you can stop it. If that happens it will shorten the game and Nix will have to come up with a circus miracle on virtually every series. That a lot to ask.

Actually not bad when we have our full complement of linebackers. We're in big trouble if Zakoby and Pappoe are ever out though. GA State first half we didn't have either and got smoked.