Russia invades Ukraine XV

[Tidewater]

Here is a report from Reuters (which in my view is one of the best sources of news in the US). Even then, you have to parse words carefully.

U.S. intelligence assesses Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 casualties -source


315,000 casualties, which includes wounded as well as dead.
Then Reuters points out that this figure represents 87% of the men in the Russian army when the invasion. But these casualties are not amongst the same 360,00 men. Russia conscripts around 260,00 new men/year (254k in 2022 and 277k in 2023). Guys who survive their conscription period move on.

Then the article lists Ukrainian deaths (not including wounded) as 70,000. The normal ratio wounded to dead is around 3:1, so 210,000 wounded or 280,000 Ukrainian casualties total. 280,000 compared to 315,000 is not enough for Ukraine to win.

 

[Tidewater]

I found a reliable source for ratios of WIA to KIA.
In the summer of 2022, "The Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) who are reporting as of 26 May that they had 1,912 soldiers killed and 7,919 wounded (a 4.14-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio)."

Since this report, Russia annexed Donetsk, and has outlawed discussing casualties, so this was the last relevant data point, so let's use that.
1/5.14 = 61,284/315,000 so ~61,000 Russian KIA.
The same story reports 70,000 Ukrainian KIA. (Ukraine also classifies casualty figures so who knows what the real figures are?) Regardless, in an attritional war, Ukraine needs to be trading casualties with the Russians at closer to 5:1 than 6:7.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Ukraine might not win, but they're gonna make Russia pay a hefty price...

Kyiv targets St Petersburg oil facility in rare attack on Putin’s home city – live

Russian outlets are claiming that the drone struck between two fuel tanks in a St Petersburg oil facility

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Tidewater]

Talking to a friend at dinner tonight. This guy is in contact with a Ukrainian SOF operator. The Ukrainian's fifty-something year old father just got drafted and is now in basic training.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Talking to a friend at dinner tonight. This guy is in contact with a Ukrainian SOF operator. The Ukrainian's fifty-something year old father just got drafted and is now in basic training.

IDK Ukraine's demographic situation, but if that continues, they're going to be in the same boat as China a Russia, if they're not already...

 

[Tidewater]

Here is an article on the decision to stop building the US Army at 90 divisions during the Second World War.
"The 90-Division Gamble" by Maurice Matloff
The government has to ponder how big a force to field versus having manpower to keep the tank and airplane production lines open. Even a country as big as the US had to consider such things. Ukraine does to.

 

[crimsonaudio]

‘It’s their turn now:’ Ukrainians call on government to demobilize exhausted soldiers fighting for nearly two years

Over a hundred women braved a snowstorm in early December to gather in central Kyiv’s Independence Square and call on the government to demobilize their relatives who have been on the front lines since the first days of the invasion. Draped in Ukrainian flags, women chanted, “It’s their turn...

kyivindependent.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

This is interesting. The Ukrainians may have chanced locating one of their Patriot launchers to take out two Russian planes. Hope it's not paywalled, but you know the ways around it...

Insider

 

[Tidewater]

Ukraine needs more of this. A lot more of this.
Russian Volunteer Corps destroyed Russian military truck in ambush — NV source

And this.
Ukraine, Stalled on the Front, Steps Up Sabotage, Targeting Trains

Or, Ukraine could continue the fling 50- year-old conscripts against Russian trenches.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Ukraine needs more of this. A lot more of this.
Russian Volunteer Corps destroyed Russian military truck in ambush — NV source

And this.
Ukraine, Stalled on the Front, Steps Up Sabotage, Targeting Trains

Or, Ukraine could continue the fling 50- year-old conscripts against Russian trenches.

In every way this war is a lose/lose proposition.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

In every way this war is a lose/lose proposition.

True, but the Ukrainians have no choice in the matter. The Russkis do...

 

[Tidewater]

In every way this war is a lose/lose proposition.

Except for the decision-maker himself.
He is profiting from this war, in that it excuses population controls that will ensure he dies in office.
The Russian people deserve all the pain they're getting because they tolerate this crap.

The Ukrainians do not deserve this.

 

[NationalTitles18]

 

[Tidewater]

Vladimir Pastukhov is a Russian living in London, where he teaches at University College London.
Apparently, there have been protests in Bashkorastan, and Pastukhov has commented about them on Telegram.

The war and the associated policy of great-power chauvinism awakened the powerful dormant forces of the peoples of Russia. She (ed. the war) directs their energy of protest against the regime. It merges with the energy of general democratic and anti-war protests and is scaled by social protest. What we see is a historical pattern, according to which the collapse of the empire has already occurred twice. We won't see anything new this time either. The problem is that the energy of this protest is not directed only against the regime, and with its fall it will not disappear anywhere and will not stop at anything. Including before the collapse of Russia. A hybrid protest will have a hybrid result. So there’s nothing much to be happy about here for now. Russia is sitting on a bomb that Putin placed under it, but which will explode after he leaves.

 

[major tidefan]

Russian plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashes near border, Moscow says

A Russian military aircraft carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashed Wednesday in western Russia's Belgorod region, Russian officials said.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Tidewater]

Russian plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashes near border, Moscow says

A Russian military aircraft carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war crashed Wednesday in western Russia's Belgorod region, Russian officials said.

abcnews.go.com

That is the Kremlin story.
The Kyiv story is that it was carrying missiles.
Who knows which is true?

 

[Tidewater]

Here is a multimedia article from Novaya Gazeta Europe. It shows how RIA Novosti is part of the Kremlin's propaganda war.
Highly recommended.
In propaganda’s web

When I was studying Russian, I took a course "Readings from the Soviet Press." Soviet press included certain phrases which were repeated over and over, even when the subject of the article had nothing to do with the phrase. One was "the danger of nuclear weapons." Another was "the expansionistic, imperialistic policies of the Reagan Administration." The wheat crop in Ukraine was bad this year. Why? Because of "the expansionistic, imperialistic policies of the Reagan Administration." The Soviet track team won the gold at the World Championships. Why? Because of "the dangers of nuclear weapons." It was effective because now, 40 years later, I still remember the buzz phrases.
The article in Novaya Gazeta explores the power of repetition.

 

[Padreruf]

Vladimir Pastukhov is a Russian living in London, where he teaches at University College London.
Apparently, there have been protests in Bashkorastan, and Pastukhov has commented about them on Telegram.

The war and the associated policy of great-power chauvinism awakened the powerful dormant forces of the peoples of Russia. She (ed. the war) directs their energy of protest against the regime. It merges with the energy of general democratic and anti-war protests and is scaled by social protest. What we see is a historical pattern, according to which the collapse of the empire has already occurred twice. We won't see anything new this time either. The problem is that the energy of this protest is not directed only against the regime, and with its fall it will not disappear anywhere and will not stop at anything. Including before the collapse of Russia. A hybrid protest will have a hybrid result. So there’s nothing much to be happy about here for now. Russia is sitting on a bomb that Putin placed under it, but which will explode after he leaves.

Is there anything that Putin could do to put himself in mortal danger...or to have the military rise up and remove him from power?

 

[Go Bama]

That is the Kremlin story.
The Kyiv story is that it was carrying missiles.
Who knows which is true?

TW, is it unusual for POW's to be transported in a cargo plane? Why not use a passenger jet and reserve the cargo plane for military purposes like moving troop transports, tanks, artillery, etc.?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Here is a multimedia article from Novaya Gazeta Europe. It shows how RIA Novosti is part of the Kremlin's propaganda war.
Highly recommended.
In propaganda’s web

When I was studying Russian, I took a course "Readings from the Soviet Press." Soviet press included certain phrases which were repeated over and over, even when the subject of the article had nothing to do with the phrase. One was "the danger of nuclear weapons." Another was "the expansionistic, imperialistic policies of the Reagan Administration." The wheat crop in Ukraine was bad this year. Why? Because of "the expansionistic, imperialistic policies of the Reagan Administration." The Soviet track team won the gold at the World Championships. Why? Because of "the dangers of nuclear weapons." It was effective because now, 40 years later, I still remember the buzz phrases.
The article in Novaya Gazeta explores the power of repetition.

It works, as Slab has said frequently - his wife's family chooses to believe, although they're in the west, not under Putin's thumb...