Potential final ranking prognostication

[davefrat]

Well, we could start talk about next year.

If we lose this weekend I think the Tidefans server may literally overheat and meltdown.

 

[CoolBreeze]

It's illogical is what it is, but the committee has been consistently illogical.

They do what they want, then they figure out the justification for it after the fact. There is no consistently, there is no precedent, rule, or approach that they adhere to. It's just literally what ever the heck they felt like at a given time.

It is a mafia of people manipulating the system for money. The Human element will always skew logical decisions when it comes to money. We fans need to demand a system based on data and a commissioner of football, which will never happen. Looking at Sagarin's data, for example, clearly tells the story of SEC teams in the top 30 with way more difficult schedules. That, combined with wins over top 30 wins should carry way more weight than going by Human polls. Big 2's record is 3-0 for both of them. The highest rated SEC teams are 5-0, 4-1, 6-2 & 6-1. Even Vanderbilt has played double the number of top 30 teams than any in the big 2. I still don't understand why us fans put up this this farce.

College Football Ratings Page

 

[tusks_n_raider]

If we lose this weekend I think the Tidefans server may literally overheat and meltdown.

True because there would be a lot to discuss other than the CFBP.

This is a BAD AU team and there is zero excuse to not beat them.

A&M is a Very Good team and there would not be shame in losing to them as long as we played them tight and came up short because they were better.

Losing to AU would be a complete failure and an embarrassment.

We’d be exactly where we were in Week 1 post FSU.

 

[Cruloc]

If we lose this weekend I think the Tidefans server may literally overheat and meltdown.

I wouldn't be shocked if we lost. Like the Oklahoma game, I wasn't upset, just disappointed at the play and disgusted at how we looked.

If we did the same at Auburn....I'd watch til the end, stay off of here and go play Path of Exile.

 

[davefrat]

I wouldn't be shocked if we lost. Like the Oklahoma game, I wasn't upset, just disappointed at the play and disgusted at how we looked.

If we did the same at Auburn....I'd watch til the end, stay off of here and go play Path of Exile.

Agreed. I wasn't surprised at all about us losing against OU (last year or this year...in fact last year I expected Venables to have a plan to shut down Milroe although I was surprised by how sloppy we were with the ball this year) and I wouldn't be shocked if we stain the sheets against Auburn.

I hope that's not the case.

 

[TideEngineer08]

True because there would be a lot to discuss other than the CFBP.

This is a BAD AU team and there is zero excuse to not beat them.

A&M is a Very Good team and there would not be shame in losing to them as long as we played them tight and came up short because they were better.

Losing to AU would be a complete failure and an embarrassment.

We’d be exactly where we were in Week 1 post FSU.

We'd actually set ourselves further back. At least after FSU, we had the season ahead to redeem ourselves. Losing to AU, falling to 9-3 and a completely useless bowl game that we would likely lose and fall to 9-4, would bring back those calling for a coaching change and they'd be much louder than before. The season (and off-season) hang in the balance.

 

[davefrat]

We'd actually set ourselves further back. At least after FSU, we had the season ahead to redeem ourselves. Losing to AU, falling to 9-3 and a completely useless bowl game that we would likely lose and fall to 9-4, would bring back those calling for a coaching change and they'd be much louder than before. The season (and off-season) hang in the balance.

For good or bad, and regardless what happens to end this season, DeBoer is almost assuredly going to be our HC next year unless he chooses to go elsewhere. With all the current vacancies at big time programs there aren't enough good coaches to go around.

But it will be an ugly offseason if we lose to Auburn and DeBoer will start the season off sitting on red hot woodstove.

 

[Con]

Guys, I don’t have the confidence I have in winning the way I did when Coach Saban was here but I still feel like we can whoop most anybody we play. We just don’t play with consistency a lot of the time. I will never feel like Auburn is going to beat us.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Predicting the top 12 of the fourth Playoff Poll of 2025

After a quiet Week 13 without major upsets, what will the latest College Football Playoff Top 25 look like on Tuesday night?

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

 

[UAH]

I wouldn't be shocked if we lost. Like the Oklahoma game, I wasn't upset, just disappointed at the play and disgusted at how we looked.

If we did the same at Auburn....I'd watch til the end, stay off of here and go play Path of Exile.

My question is Auburn's front four - front seven equal to or stronger than Oklahoma's? Just being realistic, given all of the past games there, it is reasonable to expect a mad house and a gut wrenching game. As others have said there have to be options to get the ball out quickly otherwise Ty will have a long night. I hope I am plesantly surprised!

 

[bamacpa]

I do not have any confidence we will win Saturday. The offense has been regressing to the point where we rely almost totally on Bernard, Cuevas and to a lesser extent, Hill. With Cuevas out against a good defense and a couple of dangerous receivers....and no kicking game to fall back on, I just don't see us winning.

 

[denver]

Vandy put up 45 on these guys....38 in regulation...if we cant do the same with our weapons then something is off...especially with our guys knowing what is at stake....but I'm still extremely nervous since we've failed to get beyond a two score lead all year it seems

 

[KrAzY3]

It is a mafia of people manipulating the system for money. The Human element will always skew logical decisions when it comes to money. We fans need to demand a system based on data and a commissioner of football, which will never happen. Looking at Sagarin's data, for example, clearly tells the story of SEC teams in the top 30 with way more difficult schedules. That, combined with wins over top 30 wins should carry way more weight than going by Human polls. Big 2's record is 3-0 for both of them. The highest rated SEC teams are 5-0, 4-1, 6-2 & 6-1. Even Vanderbilt has played double the number of top 30 teams than any in the big 2. I still don't understand why us fans put up this this farce.

College Football Ratings Page

Well first, I've said all along that the playoff is about inclusion. The reason fans put up with it is ultimately that's what they want. They don't want things to actually be fair, to be logical, to be consistent. They want them to be slanted towards inclusion, so the most deserving are left out in favor of inclusivity. Just look at the current rankings, BYU at 11? Utah at 12 ahead of Vanderbilt? The committee should be doing better than any computer, instead they are doing demonstrably worse.

As far as Sagarin, I rely heavily on them, but I would note that even the computers are outdated. When the SEC added Oklahoma and Texas to what was already the strongest conference in football they created an unprecedented situation.

A side effect of that by the way is BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech ranked so high. It's pure coincidence that a conference without it's best teams magically sees the remaining teams get much better. Or you know, it's just that their schedules are now much easier. Anyway, part of the issue is that the models still favor wins and losses a bit too much. This is a relic when the best teams were spread out among six conferences, and now the power is largely concentrated within 2. Losses are an inevitability that mean less than they used to.

The second issue is the models were never really built to take into account conference championship games. It's all percentage based, so if you play 4 games, or 20, it still ranks teams as though what they did was somehow equivalent (check their 2020 rankings). This isn't true though, if Alabama plays in a conference championship game against Texas A&M, it's more than just a percentage increase in the formula. It's a whole entirely new game, but none of the models really know what to do with that because they're not calibrated properly. The SoS should function as a multiplier, for instance each top 10 play you get a X multiplier, each top 20, top 30, so on, and then you apply that to the other ranking components.

Unfortunately it's just not done that way so for a team like Alabama, the SECCG is only an oppurtunity to lose in the rankings, which to reiterate are skewed far too heavily to punish losses.

 

[Cruloc]

Vandy put up 45 on these guys....38 in regulation...if we cant do the same with our weapons then something is off...especially with our guys knowing what is at stake....but I'm still extremely nervous since we've failed to get beyond a two score lead all year it seems

With the offense being dependent on how the QB plays.....no run game to speak of.....our offensive scoring ceiling is 21, maybe up to 27 or 28. We wont get over 28 without a defensive score or a turnover deep on their side of the field.

Now, can we hold them to 21 or less. If yes, then we likely win.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Quite simply the game will come down to turnovers, just like OU did. Our offense lost the OU game with turnovers, not an inability to move the ball. We will move the ball against Auburn. If we don’t turn it over and put the defense in bad spots, we will win.

 

[denver]

Another week and another bunch of nonsense...Oregon jumps Ole miss...why? And they say we are in the same pod of 4 as Notre Dame yet still behind them? sigh....

 

[Cruloc]

Another week and another bunch of nonsense...Oregon jumps Ole miss...why? And they say we are in the same pod of 4 as Notre Dame yet still behind them? sigh....

Didnt you hear...we cant run the ball and Notre Dames losses are better than ours.

 

[arthurdawg]

Didnt you hear...we cant run the ball and Notre Dames losses are better than our WINS.

FTFY... Craziness... And now looking at them carefully trying set us up for exclusion if we don't win the SEC title game... Which is only disadvantageous for us given how beat up we are.

But... Beat Auburn and keep rollin'!

 

[CoolBreeze]

Well first, I've said all along that the playoff is about inclusion. The reason fans put up with it is ultimately that's what they want. They don't want things to actually be fair, to be logical, to be consistent. They want them to be slanted towards inclusion, so the most deserving are left out in favor of inclusivity. Just look at the current rankings, BYU at 11? Utah at 12 ahead of Vanderbilt? The committee should be doing better than any computer, instead they are doing demonstrably worse.

As far as Sagarin, I rely heavily on them, but I would note that even the computers are outdated. When the SEC added Oklahoma and Texas to what was already the strongest conference in football they created an unprecedented situation.

A side effect of that by the way is BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech ranked so high. It's pure coincidence that a conference without it's best teams magically sees the remaining teams get much better. Or you know, it's just that their schedules are now much easier. Anyway, part of the issue is that the models still favor wins and losses a bit too much. This is a relic when the best teams were spread out among six conferences, and now the power is largely concentrated within 2. Losses are an inevitability that mean less than they used to.

The second issue is the models were never really built to take into account conference championship games. It's all percentage based, so if you play 4 games, or 20, it still ranks teams as though what they did was somehow equivalent (check their 2020 rankings). This isn't true though, if Alabama plays in a conference championship game against Texas A&M, it's more than just a percentage increase in the formula. It's a whole entirely new game, but none of the models really know what to do with that because they're not calibrated properly. The SoS should function as a multiplier, for instance each top 10 play you get a X multiplier, each top 20, top 30, so on, and then you apply that to the other ranking components.

Unfortunately it's just not done that way so for a team like Alabama, the SECCG is only an oppurtunity to lose in the rankings, which to reiterate are skewed far too heavily to punish losses.

Good post. So, what is the answer for we fans in the SEC? Sure, inclusion is good but not when you are talking about the National Champions. At this point, our conference reigns supreme in strength, talented athletes and coaches. We need to have our own invitational tournament and let the rest of the field do what they want. No sense in carrying on this charade any longer.

 

[Cruloc]

It could be interesting if:

BYU wins out, finishes 12-1 and Big 12 Champs
Alabama wins out, finishes 11-2 and SEC Champs
Notre Dame finishes 10-2
Oklahoma finishes 10-2
Miami finishes 10-2 and doesn't play in the ACCCG
Michigan wins out, finishes 10-2.

There aren't enough playoff slots for all the teams if the above happens.