COW - America, You Actually Believe Alabama Is Out Of The College Football Playoff?

[crimsonaudio]

I have screamed, yelled, .....ed, whined, prayed, and pleaded my case for years and years and years that a team that can’t win its own division shouldn’t be able to win the national title. I’d love absolutely nothing more than a College Football Playoff with four fresh new schools – say, LSU, Minnesota, Baylor, Utah – in the mix.

But that’s not how the College Football Playoff works.

It’s about who the committee thinks the four best teams are, and as much as we all might not like it – especially with just one decent win on the slate – yeah, that’s Alabama.

If he committee liked the Tide enough to put them No. 3 in the first round of rankings, it’s not going to have a whole slew of issues at the end of the season in the whole four-best-team argument if they win out – again, more on that in a moment.

Like it or not, no matter how the sausage was made, Bama put up 41 points. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 418 yards and four scores on a bum ankle – get ready for that to be a talking point in a few weeks – Najee Harris ran for 146 yards and scored twice, and in the end, the team looked the part of one of the four best teams – at least offensively. It might not be one of the three best, but fourth?

Who’s that fourth team – at least in the eyes of the CFP committee – if it’s not Bama?

It’s been cute and all, but Minnesota and Baylor aren’t getting into the College Football Playoff.

Oregon? Lost to Auburn. If Bama beats Auburn at Auburn, there goes that.

I actually think Utah could do some damage in the tournament, but it has to get there first, and the loss to USC doesn’t help.

Who’s got the chops to finish out the rest of the way without another loss?

Oklahoma? Yeeesh. Georgia? More than you think (again, give me a moment). Penn State? Intriguing (also, it’s coming in a second), but probably not considering it lost to Minnesota and Bama lost to the No. 2-soon-to-be-No. 1 team.

So who? Who’s that fourth team? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg?

LSU, next time you kill something, make sure it stays dead.

Cavalcade of Whimsy: America, You Actually Believe Alabama Is Out Of The College Football Playoff?

 

[CajunCrimson]

Thanks for sharing -- it will make the next few weeks very interesting!

 

[Chukker Veteran]

Great read on a cold day, thanks.

I hope nobody makes the same mistake I almost made...I thought CA had quoted the entire article (which seemed strange but anyway...) so I started not to follow the link, but when I did there was lots more good stuff to read.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I still say there's at least one major upset left on the books that of course "no one saw coming".

 

[Chukker Veteran]

I still say there's at least one major upset left on the books that of course "no one saw coming".

Each year it is more likely to happen than not.

 

[cubzwin]

Upset: Look for Cal (6.5 pt underdog) to beat USC this Saturday. That will make Utah's loss to USC look worse. Then, even if Utah beats Oregon in the PAC 12 final, Utah may not be considered best one loss team. Lots of ways this could play out.

 

[KrAzY3]

I still say there's at least one major upset left on the books that of course "no one saw coming".

We might need more than one, but if Oklahoma (unless it's to Baylor, heh) or Clemson loses it would surely help a great deal.

Upset: Look for Cal (6.5 pt underdog) to beat USC this Saturday. That will make Utah's loss to USC look worse. Then, even if Utah beats Oregon in the PAC 12 final, Utah may not be considered best one loss team. Lots of ways this could play out.

I'm still torn on if it's better for Oregon or Utah to be Pac-12 champs. On one hand Utah has the weaker resume, on the other hand Auburn beat Oregon. So... yeah.

 

[BamaMoon]

We might need more than one, but if Oklahoma (unless it's to Baylor, heh) or Clemson loses it would surely help a great deal.

I'm still torn on if it's better for Oregon or Utah to be Pac-12 champs. On one hand Utah has the weaker resume, on the other hand Auburn beat Oregon. So... yeah.

I think I've seen where you said this, but can you flesh it out?

Unless Baylor runs the table, which I think is doubtful, if we finish with 3 wins, including Auburn, why do we need much help?

If right now we are the best 1 loss team, even better than Minn. (what other polls are suggesting and do we really believe they'll win the B1G?) why do we need a great deal of help?

Maybe I'm misreading your thoughts, but it sounds like you think alot more needs to happen than some of the rest of us.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Games that affect the College Football Playoffs this week:

24 Indiana VS 9 Penn State
4 Alabama VS Miss State
Wake Forest VS 3 Clemson
5 Georgia VS 13 Auburn
2 Ohio State VS Rutgers
7 Minnesota VS 23 Iowa
1 LSU VS Ole Miss
10 OU VS 12 Baylor
UCLA VS 8 Utah
Arizona VS 6 Oregon

Games of note......that can start this process churning!

 

[WalkaboutSean]

I'm not a gambling man, but I do like to see what Las Vegas says from time to time. Alabama's current odds to WIN the National Championship (not just make the playoffs) are 6/1! That's fourth in line behind Ohio State (2/1), LSU (2/1) and Clemson (7/2). The fifth team out is Georgia at 14/1.

The season is far from over. We just need to be the best 1-loss team.

 

[B1GTide]

I'm still torn on if it's better for Oregon or Utah to be Pac-12 champs. On one hand Utah has the weaker resume, on the other hand Auburn beat Oregon. So... yeah.

IMO, Oregon. Why? Auburn beat Oregon, but if Utah also beats Oregon, especially if they beat Oregon convincingly, then you take that totally out of the equation. You make Utah better than Auburn in the minds of many because Auburn needed a lot of luck and "help" to win that game. In essence, Utah beating Oregon looks even better than Alabama beating Auburn, and they would have one more win plus a conference championship.

Need Baylor, MN and Utah to lose along the way. Would also help if a bunch of other teams lose, but these guys have to go down.

 

[CajunCrimson]

I think I've seen where you said this, but can you flesh it out?

Unless Baylor runs the table, which I think is doubtful, if we finish with 3 wins, including Auburn, why do we need much help?

If right now we are the best 1 loss team, even better than Minn. (what other polls are suggesting and do we really believe they'll win the B1G?) why do we need a great deal of help?

Maybe I'm misreading your thoughts, but it sounds like you think alot more needs to happen than some of the rest of us.

Some things help us more than others.

But some are just "doubt" removers.....

I think we get in ahead of Oregon either way, if we beat Auburn. BUT -- to remove any doubt, it would be nice for Oregon to drop a game before....
I think we get in ahead of OU either way, if we win out. BUT -- to remove doubt, it would be better if OU and Baylor split....

etc.

 

[CajunCrimson]

I'm not a gambling man, but I do like to see what Las Vegas says from time to time. Alabama's current odds to WIN the National Championship (not just make the playoffs) are 6/1! That's fourth in line behind Ohio State (2/1), LSU (2/1) and Clemson (7/2). The fifth team out is Georgia at 14/1.

The season is far from over. We just need to be the best 1-loss team.

That might be worth $100 or so.....6/1

But watch those lines if we get in the playoffs.....I bet LSUs odds become 4th best....within just a few hours

 

[KrAzY3]

Maybe I'm misreading your thoughts, but it sounds like you think alot more needs to happen than some of the rest of us.

I was tempted to make a new topic, but I feel like I'm past my making new topics allotment, I've already done way more than usual lately.

The main issue here is the playoff committee's criteria. If this was the BCS, Alabama would be in a fairly good position. But the committee has poisoned the well a bit with criteria that goes beyond what a team does on the field. In this case, Alabama looks like a contender on the field. Even the LSU loss was close, Alabama could have won, etc... Rest of the games haven't even been close. So, the polls have Alabama at #4 and rightly so.

The committee however, has two things that can sink Alabama's ship. They use a quality wins metric. Alabama's SoS is actually on the weaker end of the spectrum. It might not be Baylor and Minnesota bad, but it's worse on paper at least than Oklahoma, Penn. State, Oregon, etc... Then you have a conference championship, which once again favors any of those teams that wins theirs.

So yeah, Alabama has played better, they look better, but the committee due to stupid criteria has the potential to favor those other teams in 2 out of 3 areas. The saving grace could be Tua's injury, they can count that to but only if they want to.

Here's what we're faced with. Either the committee wants Alabama in, in which case Alabama just needs to win and everything should work out. Or, they want a conference champion in, in which case a lot needs to go right. If we're talking one loss conference champion, there's a lot of teams that could get in under those circumstances. That includes Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Penn. State, Georgia, etc... furthermore, there's a couple teams that if they take a loss still have a better resume than Alabama, including LSU and Ohio State.

As of right now, it seems like I'd be watching the conference championship games hoping for favorable outcomes in almost all of them. Hope LSU beats a one loss Georgia team. Hope Ohio State doesn't stumble against Minnesota. Hope Clemson loses (that one could bail out Alabama). Hope the worst of the two teams in the Pac-12 and Big 12 matchups win. It's just so much that needs to go right... In 2017 we needed less to go right, because for example the Pac-12 was out the race, we're looking at a scenario where we might need 3 or so to go right and even then, if it's one loss team vs. one loss team I'm not sure anything short of a Clemson loss could bail out Alabama.

IMO, Oregon. Why?

Oregon (30) has a better SoS though, better than Alabama's. Utah's (47) isn't nearly as good and the committee does include that. That's why Ohio State got in over Baylor....

 

[CajunCrimson]

I was tempted to make a new topic, but I feel like I'm past my making new topics allotment, I've already done way more than usual lately.

The main issue here is the playoff committee's criteria. If this was the BCS, Alabama would be in a fairly good position. But the committee has poisoned the well a bit with criteria that goes beyond what a team does on the field. In this case, Alabama looks like a contender on the field. Even the LSU loss was close, Alabama could have won, etc... Rest of the games haven't even been close. So, the polls have Alabama at #4 and rightly so.

The committee however, has two things that can sink Alabama's ship. They use a quality wins metric. Alabama's SoS is actually on the weaker end of the spectrum. It might not be Baylor and Minnesota bad, but it's worse on paper at least than Oklahoma, Penn. State, Oregon, etc... Then you have a conference championship, which once again favors any of those teams that wins theirs.

So yeah, Alabama has played better, they look better, but the committee due to stupid criteria has the potential to favor those other teams in 2 out of 3 areas. The saving grace could be Tua's injury, they can count that to but only if they want to.

Here's what we're faced with. Either the committee wants Alabama in, in which case Alabama just needs to win and everything should work out. Or, they want a conference champion in, in which case a lot needs to go right. If we're talking one loss conference champion, there's a lot of teams that could get in under those circumstances. That includes Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Penn. State, Georgia, etc... furthermore, there's a couple teams that if they take a loss still have a better resume than Alabama, including LSU and Ohio State.

As of right now, it seems like I'd be watching the conference championship games hoping for favorable outcomes in almost all of them. Hope LSU beats a one loss Georgia team. Hope Ohio State doesn't stumble against Minnesota. Hope Clemson loses (that one could bail out Alabama). Hope the worst of the two teams in the Pac-12 and Big 12 matchups lose. It's just so much that needs to go right... In 2017 we needed just one of those to go right, we're looking at a scenario where we might need 3 or so to go right and even then, if it's one loss team vs. one loss team I'm not sure anything short of a Clemson loss could bail out Alabama.


Oregon (30) has a better SoS though, better than Alabama's. Utah's (47) isn't nearly as good and the committee does include that. That's why Ohio State got in over Baylor....

Well, FPI has Bama 3rd.....
The polls have us 4th

Utah, Baylor, Penn State have SO much ground to make up.....I just don't seem them passing us.......Baylor would the be only one to have a serious argument (because they would be undefeated) -- but the odds of them winning vs OU, Texas, Kansas and OU again -- are slim..... plus Baylor and the NCAA aren't necessarily "best buds" and don't think that doesn't have weight. I think that hurts PSU as well......

I think this ultimately comes down to: Bama, Oregon and OU.....for the 4th spot....

Oregon lost to Auburn (and this assumes we beat them)
OU lost to KState......and has zero defense.....

The only wrench that could ruin this whole thing, is if UGA beats LSU (which wouldn't surprise me)

That's the one thing that could ruin all of this.... (which is why I'm pulling for A&M to upset LSU, because LSU would stay in at 3 or 4.....then if UGA does pull the upset, that opens the door for UGA and Bama)

 

[BamaMoon]

The nightmare scenario is for LSU to lose to Georgia in the SECCG.

Anything is possible and Georgia is talented, but I just don't see them being able to keep up with LSU on the scoreboard. LSU could have an off night, but you'd think if that were going to happen it would have happened against us. I guarantee you they felt more pressure against us in T-town than they will against Georgia in ATL.

 

[B1GTide]

Oregon (30) has a better SoS though, better than Alabama's. Utah's (47) isn't nearly as good and the committee does include that. That's why Ohio State got in over Baylor....

In the past the committee has really not looked at SoS metrics - they have looked at quality wins and losses.

 

[B1GTide]

The nightmare scenario is for LSU to lose to Georgia in the SECCG.

That is why I am pulling for Auburn this weekend. If GA has 2 losses going into the SECCG, the game becomes meaningless. GA would be out, LSU would be in, no matter how that game played out. It would not impact the rest of the CFP field.

 

[KrAzY3]

Utah, Baylor, Penn State have SO much ground to make up..

That's the problem, they don't. Alabama is 4th in the mythical BCS standings. 4th in the polls, they are 3rd in FPI, and unfortunately none of that matters.

The committee has shown they can and will do what they want, but they've doggedly stuck to the quality wins metric which is not Alabama's friend here. Even if we assume that conference championship doesn't matter, that's still in the least one more quality win.

I'll show you the problem by referencing Sagarin's SoS:
Ohio State SoS 34
LSU SoS 13
Both those teams are in the clubhouse. Ohio State still has Penn State coming up, meaning their SoS will be rock solid by the time this is all said and done.

Clemson SoS 71
This is the lone undefeated team that should fall completely out of the discussion if they lose. They don't have any quality games to make up SoS.

Alabama SoS 54
Alabama's SoS should climb a bit after the Auburn game, but they're just not going to have a high SoS no matter what. They've usually had this to fall back on, but not this year.

Oregon SoS 30
Their loss to Auburn is the only helpful thing, but they have a good enough SoS that they could be trouble either way. They're almost certain to play Utah in the championship game, which means their SoS goes up even more.

Utah SoS 47
Their SoS isn't great, but if they beat Oregon it will end up ahead of Alabama most likely, and they'll have that shouldn't count but does conference championship.

Oklahoma SoS 41
There's a reason the Big 12 got special permission for a conference championship game and this season is an example. Without it they wouldn't get a push as a one loss team trying to overtake Alabama, but as it stands just playing in that game gives them an SoS boost they wouldn't get otherwise, meaning they are going to break into the top 40 if they play in that game.

Baylor SoS 58
That number is too close to Alabama's, and remember they're undefeated. They win out, they get in above Alabama no questions asked. The problem is even if they stumble, a one loss Baylor that beats Oklahoma in the championship game will find themselves with a comparable SoS to Alabama, but also a conference championship, which supposedly matters.

Minnesota SoS 70
This might seem like a Clemson situation, but it's not. They have two ranked teams coming up, and a potential matchup with Ohio State. Even if they lose one of the two upcoming games, a win over Ohio State could two Big 10 teams in the playoffs.

Penn State SoS 23
If they beat Ohio State, we're looking at another two Big 10 team scenario.

So... we have 6 teams that need to lose once, may be twice to actually completely clear the path for Alabama. I didn't even count Georgia who is in if they win out.

In the past the committee has really not looked at SoS metrics - they have looked at quality wins and losses.

True, I'm using SoS as a stand in because I'm a little lazy and they haven't fully revealed their quality win metric. They do use an SoS calculation to. One thing is clear, every conference championship victory will be an additional quality win. It's like a double bonus... It shouldn't be, but it is.

And yes, Auburn beating Georgia will be beneficial to Alabama's hopes in multiple ways.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I cannot express to you how delighted I would be if somehow we made it in, as a #4 seed, and beat LSU in that first round game. Twice losing to them at home, rising from the dead, and denying them the national title in the span of a decade? The entire state of Louisiana would have be put on suicide watch.

Having said all that, I'm over the nonsense about having to win your conference or division in order to make the playoff. For YEARS I heard how college football was stupid for not being like every other sport and doing a playoff. Well guess what? No other sport requires teams to win their conference or division in order to make the playoff. NONE.

You wanted the playoff, you thought it would make it more difficult for Alabama, and yet it made it easier. DEAL with it.