Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[Tidewater]

WOW

If you had been living under a rock since this war began and just now read this "peace deal," you'd assume that Ukraine was the aggressor and cause of all the trouble. They get absolutely punished in this "deal," with Putin and his criminal actions getting barely a slap on the wrist. This thing reads like a love letter to Russia written by Putin's bed buddy Trump.

Resist and fight Zelenski! Show some dignity and respect for your country and refuse to bend the knee to Trump and Putin.

I want his thing to end, but Russia should be the one to pay the higher cost, and they should never be allowed back into the G8, ever.


Including this is laughable, considering this administration doesn't even follow these guidelines in this country.

This ain't a deal for Ukraine, it is a surrender.

If the confrontation line was moving steadily eastward and Russia lost more land every day, the negotiations would have been much more pro-Kyiv. In fact, the opposite is happening. Every day the way drags on, Ukraine loses more and more of its land.
If there is some wonder-weapon that will turn the tide, or some change in strategy that will win the war for Ukraine like a clap of lightning, I'd love to see it. We are coming up on four years and for the last two, the glacial but ever-westward movement of the confrontation line signal eventual and inevitable defeat of Ukraine. Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian logistics hub, is now in Russian hands
Wishing that wasn't true does not change the facts on the ground.

 

[Tidewater]

By "hope for the best" do you mean they hope the U.S. will save their asses because that's sure what it sounds like to me.

Yeah. Look at the situation of the British in the Second World War in June 1940. With the fall of France, the Brits were alone. The British Empire was big, and they had Canada, India, the Suez Canal, but no chance to get back onto the continent of Europe, so Churchill waited and adopted the traditional British strategy of nibbling at the fringes of the Nazi Empire and hoped for better days. They won by not losing.
That changed in June 1941 when Hitler invaded the USSR (which had the world's largest army). Then in December, Hitler declared war on the US (world's largest economy). Then it was only a matter of time until the Russians ground the Wehrmacht down and the US war production was felt in Europe. But the trend lines changed immeasurably between June 1940 and December 1941. Maybe the Ukrainians believe that they are the Brits in June 1940 and as long as they do not lose, they live to fight another day.
I think getting the US or Europe into the Ukraine War requires a really dumb mistake by the Russians, however.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Yeah. Look at the situation of the British in the Second World War in June 1940. With the fall of France, the Brits were alone. The British Empire was big, and they had Canada, India, the Suez Canal, but no chance to get back onto the continent of Europe, so Churchill waited and adopted the traditional British strategy of nibbling at the fringes of the Nazi Empire and hoped for better days. They won by not losing.
That changed in June 1941 when Hitler invaded the USSR (which had the world's largest army). Then in December, Hitler declared war on the US (world's largest economy). Then it was only a matter of time until the Russians ground the Wehrmacht down and the US war production was felt in Europe. But the trend lines changed immeasurably between June 1940 and December 1941. Maybe the Ukrainians believe that they are the Brits in June 1940 and as long as they do not lose, they live to fight another day.
I think getting the US or Europe into the Ukraine War requires a really dumb mistake by the Russians, however.

Those are some interesting parallels and it definitely got me thinking, but I agree with your final assessment: Putin is not Hitler and will not make the same ridiculous decisions that Hitler made. Whenever I see some sports team start out hot, but fail spectacularly down the stretch, it always reminds me of that putz.

 

[Bamaro]

If the confrontation line was moving steadily eastward and Russia lost more land every day, the negotiations would have been much more pro-Kyiv. In fact, the opposite is happening. Every day the way drags on, Ukraine loses more and more of its land.
If there is some wonder-weapon that will turn the tide, or some change in strategy that will win the war for Ukraine like a clap of lightning, I'd love to see it. We are coming up on four years and for the last two, the glacial but ever-westward movement of the confrontation line signal eventual and inevitable defeat of Ukraine. Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian logistics hub, is now in Russian hands
Wishing that wasn't true does not change the facts on the ground.

Tomahawks would be a start

 

[JDCrimson]

Here is the deal on the propaganda war. Lots of European countries have blocked pro-Kremlin Russian-language (and foreign language) news media in their own countries. Still, those individuals inclined can go to RT.ru (or Sputnik, or whatever) and get the Kremlin line if they choose to.
Targeting civilian infrastructure is a different matter. Get caught doing that in Poland and I suspect you will get yourself a long prison sentence. But the Russians deny sponsorship, even when caught. Let me give you two examples:
In Uzhhorod Ukraine was a Hungarian cultural center (Zakarpathia province used to belong to Hungary and there is a significant Hungarian minority there). Someone firebombed the Hungarian Cultural Center. When Ukraine caught the perps, it was right wing Poles (!?) had done it. I read that and said to myself, "Hang on, why would Poles firebomb a Hungarian cultural center in Ukraine? Turns out the GRU (or maybe FSB) paid a far-right group in Poland to send two guys to do the dirty deed in order to support the narrative that Ukraine was intolerant or minorities. The Russians said, "We didn't do that! You can't prove anything."
In Berlin a Georgians dissident, Zelimahn Khangoshvili, was gunned down in broad daylight. Turns out a Russian "former" FSB officer, Vadim N. Krasikov, did the shooting. The Russian government said, "We did not do that. You can't prove anything."
I do not know if the guy/guys who did the Polish railroad hit ot the guys who flew drones around European airports last month have been apprehended, but even if they are and they turn out to be Russian nationals, what do you suppose the Russian government's response will be?

Thank you, this is why I would never agree to a peace plan with Russia as they will just transition to another shadow war. At least in rne current posture Europe can more fully support Ukraine and it keeps Europe engaged and concerned about its security.

 

[Tidewater]

Thank you, this is why I would never agree to a peace plan with Russia as they will just transition to another shadow war. At least in rne current posture Europe can more fully support Ukraine and it keeps Europe engaged and concerned about its security.

Define shadow war, please.
I think it is also in Europe's best interest to maintain an independent Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and NATO. Ukraine falls, Moldova will take a day to overrun. Then, there's nothing left but NATO territory. Better to end this while there is still an independent country called Ukraine.

 

[Bamaro]

This is going to grind on until Russia is made to feel it more, much more. As long as Russia can basically sit back and continue to destroy Ukraine with missles and drones, while suffering little within their own borders, they will continue. Send/sell Ukraine what they need.

 

[Tidewater]

This is going to grind on until Russia is made to feel it more, much more. As long as Russia can basically sit back and continue to destroy Ukraine with missles and drones, while suffering little within their own borders, they will continue. Send/sell Ukraine what they need.

Okay, but I am not sure we can send Tomahawks in a quantity sufficient to induce enough pain on Russia to stop. Maybe, but Russian society is notoriously hard to collapse. Russia lost 3.7 million dead (and many more millions wounded) in three years in World War I before collapsing.
In the Second World War, the USSR suffered 27,000 deaths per day every day for four years and was not close to collapse after December 5, 1941.(Zhukov's counteroffensive north of Moscow).
In today's Russia, with the FSB and RosGvardiya looking for signs of protest, is Russia today closer to Russian society in 1917 or 1941? I do not know.

 

[Bamaro]

Okay, but I am not sure we can send Tomahawks in a quantity sufficient to induce enough pain on Russia to stop. Maybe, but Russian society is notoriously hard to collapse. Russia lost 3.7 million dead (and many more millions wounded) in three years in World War I before collapsing.
In the Second World War, the USSR suffered 27,000 deaths per day every day for four years and was not close to collapse after December 5, 1941.(Zhukov's counteroffensive north of Moscow).
In today's Russia, with the FSB and RosGvardiya looking for signs of protest, is Russia today closer to Russian society in 1917 or 1941? I do not know.

Dont target civilians but hit their electrical, water treatment and energy infrastructure.

 

[Tidewater]

Dont target civilians but hit their electrical, water treatment and energy infrastructure.

That would be a good strategy. The problem is that Putin cares not a whit how inconvenient life gets for most Russians.
It is difficult to punch the Russian people so hard that Putin (the decider) notices and agrees for it to stop. That is the nature of a dictatorship.

 

[arthurdawg]

Do we have enough tomahawks to send them?

Not up to date on current levels, but read a long form a year or two back noting we have borderline capacity to make shells, tomahawks, and that we could exhaust our stores way to fast if things get hot.

 

[Tidewater]

Do we have enough tomahawks to send them?

Not up to date on current levels, but read a long form a year or two back noting we have borderline capacity to make shells, tomahawks, and that we could exhaust our stores way to fast if things get hot.

At 2013 production levels of lots of military supplies, the product rate was optimized for efficiency (per round). Since 2014 and especially since 2022, rates of production have increased, the cost per unit be darned. What the US (and all NATO countries supplying Ukraine) need to maintain visibility on is having enough set aside for our own needs. God forbid China decides this is a good time to invade Taiwan.

 

[arthurdawg]

At 2013 production levels of lots of military supplies, the product rate was optimized for efficiency (per round). Since 2014 and especially since 2022, rates of production have increased, the cost per unit be darned. What the US (and all NATO countries supplying Ukraine) need to maintain visibility on is having enough set aside for our own needs. God forbid China decides this is a good time to invade Taiwan.

Taiwan is an interesting question... Xi can easily mount overwhelming force and we don't really have the bases to match him, and I would presume our carriers have some vulnerabilities.

OTOH, Xi can play the long game for some time yet. There is no hurry.

Not too mention I've also ready that Taiwan has pretty good weaponry, and while they can't win, they could make it pretty ugly for the Chinese military.


Good to know production of munitions for our guys has improved, they did discuss a number of projects to get us back to par.

 

[UAH]

Really confronting Trump on Ukraine would require Europeans to spend even more money on defense (they are doing a good bit more than in 2014) and the Europeans are strapped for cash. Given a choice between spending a mountain of cash on defense or social safety net, European voters will spend it on social safety net and hope for the best with Russia.

Okay, but I am not sure we can send Tomahawks in a quantity sufficient to induce enough pain on Russia to stop. Maybe, but Russian society is notoriously hard to collapse. Russia lost 3.7 million dead (and many more millions wounded) in three years in World War I before collapsing.
In the Second World War, the USSR suffered 27,000 deaths per day every day for four years and was not close to collapse after December 5, 1941.(Zhukov's counteroffensive north of Moscow).
In today's Russia, with the FSB and RosGvardiya looking for signs of protest, is Russia today closer to Russian society in 1917 or 1941? I do not know.

From my perspective the primary issue for Russia is an economic one. Their capability to finance their war depends on oil revenue. They don't have the ability to fund the war through debt in the manner the US has foolishly done too many times. Cut off their ability to refine and ship oil and they become an economy the size of the state of Alabama. Support Ukraine intelligence operations and their internal manufacture of cruise missiles to attack Russian oil assets and as a minimum the stand off continues.

Off course one has to doubt the US or Europe possess the will to provide that support.

 

[Bamaro]

That would be a good strategy. The problem is that Putin cares not a whit how inconvenient life gets for most Russians.
It is difficult to punch the Russian people so hard that Putin (the decider) notices and agrees for it to stop. That is the nature of a dictatorship.

True but the idea is to provoke the oligarchs and people against Putin's policies. The ultimate power is in the hands of the oligarchs.

 

[UAH]

Do we have enough tomahawks to send them?

Not up to date on current levels, but read a long form a year or two back noting we have borderline capacity to make shells, tomahawks, and that we could exhaust our stores way to fast if things get hot.

We have a very serious problem in restocking any missiles now due to China's extremely tight controls on shipping rare earth magnets that are directed to defense manufacturers. This has become a major strategic blunder for the US to have not developed other sources.

 

[arthurdawg]

We have a very serious problem in restocking any missiles now due to China's extremely tight controls on shipping rare earth magnets that are directed to defense manufacturers. This has become a major strategic blunder for the US to have not developed other sources.

Yes... A huge blunder in neither developing new sources, stockpiles, and tossing tariffs out and poking the dragon after those two failures.

 

[Tidewater]

True but the idea is to provoke the oligarchs and people against Putin's policies. The ultimate power is in the hands of the oligarchs.

I would agree (as long as we agree that the primus inter pares is Vladimir Vladimirovich), but do you think damaging the electrical system will hurt the oligarchs enough to make them want to whack Putin?
What motivates those guys is theye piles of cash. I think since 2014 and especially since 2022, they have moved as much of thata as possible beyind the reach of western sanctions.

 

[Tidewater]

From my perspective the primary issue for Russia is an economic one. Their capability to finance their war depends on oil revenue. They don't have the ability to fund the war through debt in the manner the US has foolishly done too many times. Cut off their ability to refine and ship oil and they become an economy the size of the state of Alabama. Support Ukraine intelligence operations and their internal manufacture of cruise missiles to attack Russian oil assets and as a minimum the stand off continues.

Off course one has to doubt the US or Europe possess the will to provide that support.

I agree, but Russia is selling oil to third parties (like India) who refines it and sells it on the global market as "Indian oil."
Trump announced secondary sanctions on India over this, but I do not know where that stands now. Shut down India and then Brazil or China or South Africa or Iran or whoever has refinery capacity will do the same thing.

 

[UAH]

I agree, but Russia is selling oil to third parties (like India) who refines it and sells it on the global market as "Indian oil."
Trump announced secondary sanctions on India over this, but I do not know where that stands now. Shut down India and then Brazil or China or South Africa or Iran or whoever has refinery capacity will do the same thing.

The main point in this is that Ukranian strikes have already diminshed Russian refined petroleum production for their domestic and foreign markets. Due to sanctions Russia is already relying on largely uninsured "shadow fleet " to ship their petroleum products at a highly discounted price. Refining capacity is the bottle neck for petroleum production world wide including the US. Reducing Russia's ability to produce refined products and their petroleum revenue plummets due to the "spark spread" . Support Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets in Russia as long as Russia continues to strike civilian targets in Ukraine!