Unlikely Hypothetical -- Playoff

Let me preface this by saying I suffer from insomnia. If I get 1.5-2 hours a night it's a miracle. I also constantly think about weird playoff scenarios. 3 days ago I doubled up on sleeping medicine and drifted off thinking of playoffs. I had a dream I had slipped into a coma and woke up December of 2019, my first question to the nurse was who won 2018 championship? Nurse said bama beat Michigan in semis and Syracuse in championship. ND was the other team in. I think it would take an immense amount of teams imposing bowl bans on themselves for that to happen.

It depends. Is it a close game with Georgia? Or do we blow them out? If we blow them out, I don't see them getting back in.

But talk about a scenario that would have LSU heads exploding. Had they not lost to A&M, they would probably be the beneficiaries of that set up.

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Notre Dame

Notre Dame should get no better than a 4 seed in any case. TCU was dropped from #3 to #6 because they did not play a CG in 2014. After beating Iowa State 55-3! ND is not even playing an Iowa State.

• The committee will attempt to avoid regular-season rematches when assigning teams to bowls.
  https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol.aspx

UntouchableCrew said:

How would the committee justify UGA leapfrogging ND after losing? I see no way they could do that. Doesn't matter what you think of them, committee already has them ranked higher.

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The same way they justified dropping TCU from #3 to #6. Actually they don't have to justify anything. They can do whatever they wish.

If UGA loses to Alabama by 3 points and they believe Alabama would beat ND by 3 TDs (they would), then they will move UGA ahead of ND.

ALA2262 said:

The same way they justified dropping TCU from #3 to #6.

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That doesn't necessarily work, because all of the teams that jumped TCU won their games, as UntouchableCrew pointed out. Georgia is out of this thing if they get blown out.

I think Oklahoma could sneak in with a loss, if it is a close loss to Texas, if Georgia gets blown out and Ohio State also loses to Northwestern. An Ohio State loss looks worse, whether it is close or not. I do not think there is any scenario where Ohio State gets in with a loss.

If all lose in blowout fashion, perhaps UCF is able to sneak in if they beat Memphis. Or you are looking at the possibility of Michigan sneaking in, but I can't see any of those teams falling below Michigan, especially Ohio State who just got finished murdering them. I think, all told, UCF stands to benefit the most in our scenario.

ALA2262 said:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Notre Dame

Notre Dame should get no better than a 4 seed in any case. TCU was dropped from #3 to #6 because they did not play a CG in 2014. After beating Iowa State 55-3! ND is not even playing an Iowa State.

• The committee will attempt to avoid regular-season rematches when assigning teams to bowls.
  https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol.aspx

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ND is in at #3. Whether we like it or not, they are in.

I think the scenario of us having to play UGA again in a 1 vs. 4 matchup would be the worse scenario for us. They are most like us other than Clemson. But, Georgia might still be the best team, even with two losses in this scenario.

Of course, this is the scenario that MIGHT allow UCF to slide in, but I doubt it.

Yea, no way does UGA jump Notre Dame by losing.


In this situation we'd probably be playing UGA again or Michigan. Probably depends what the margin is vs UGA.

Michigan would be your 4th seed imo.

UntouchableCrew said:

I can't imagine the committee dropping 11-2 OSU behind 10-2 Michigan after the beatdown the Buckeyes put on them last week.

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Agreed. I think this is the scenario that would force the committee to seriously consider UCF, depending on what they do with Memphis. However, the crazy thing is I think Memphis will handle UCF since they lost their QB. And if that happens, well, we're right back around to Georgia for sure. It probably would be a rematch with us in the first round as well, with Clemson playing Notre Dame on the other side.

UntouchableCrew said:

That's kind of where I am -- it would probably almost have to be UGA again but if we beat them badly... That seems like the one scenario where maybe UCF sneaks in if they thump Memphis.

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And Memphis might beat UCF.

If we beat Georgia by 20 points, Northwestern beats OSU, and Texas beat OK it would probably fall into Michigans lap.

I'd LOVE that!!!

UntouchableCrew said:

I can't imagine the committee dropping 11-2 OSU behind 10-2 Michigan after the beatdown the Buckeyes put on them last week.

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Well let’s analyze without the eyes of number crunchers (Dinich) and anti Harbaughs (Finebaum)

1) Alabama- UGA direct rematch ain’t happening. If UGA can’t move up for losing then they are stuck in a direct rematch. I don’t care what all these “experts” say but it just isn’t happening.

2) OU and tOSU would have 2 bad losses, and you would have to move them in off of lossses. You really want controversy then choose between the two off of losses.

3) Michigan is ahead of UCF for a reason and that reason is to prevent total chaos. The committee positions teams on championship weekend to fulfill a purpose, and Michigan’s purpose is to act as a failsafe in order to keep the G5 out.

Michigan will get in in this scenario.

81usaf92 said:

3) Michigan is ahead of UCF for a reason and that reason is to prevent total chaos. The committee positions teams on championship weekend to fulfill a purpose, and Michigan’s purpose is to act as a failsafe in order to keep the G5 out.

Michigan will get in in this scenario.

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See I just don't think the committee thinks this way. They put Michigan there this week, and this week only, because they see them that way after 12 games have been played. They will be perfectly fine moving UCF ahead of them next week if they blow out Memphis and the rest of this scenario plays out as Untouchable has described.

TideEngineer08 said:

See I just don't think the committee thinks this way. They put Michigan there this week, and this week only, because they see them that way after 12 games have been played. They will be perfectly fine moving UCF ahead of them next week if they blow out Memphis and the rest of this scenario plays out as Untouchable has described.

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Is Memphis even ranked? They would have to be mightily convincing to jump UM IMO. Seems silly to have UCF jump Michigan for a blow out win that Michigan could have also easily had if they were to play Memphis.


Full Disclosure: I have absolutely zero desire to play stupid UCF without their QB. It'd be the easiest game in the playoffs ever.

TideEngineer08 said:

See I just don't think the committee thinks this way. They put Michigan there this week, and this week only, because they see them that way after 12 games have been played. They will be perfectly fine moving UCF ahead of them next week if they blow out Memphis and the rest of this scenario plays out as Untouchable has described.

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I will remind you that Alabama was #5 and tOSU was #8 moving into championship week last year. The committee plays the positioning game entering week 15 in every single year. I’m telling you for a fact UCF will not make it in the playoffs even under this scenario. The system was designed specifically to eliminate BCS busters at all costs.