Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

DrollTide

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Oct 18, 2008
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Game hinges on Alabama yards per run more than anything else, 4.5 is the magic number. But ND does score points probably including a TD.

24-17 to the good guys.

ND could pull out a close win but a lopsided win is likely to be Alabama's.
 

TideEngineer08

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Jun 9, 2009
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I just keep going back to turnovers. I don't think they have a shot to win if Alabama doesn't turn the ball over. If we do... all bets are off.

I can't remember what my pick was in the early thread. I'll go with 24-13 today. I think it's close throughout, and we tack on a late score to pull away. I respect Notre Dame. I think they're a good team and worthy of the national championship game. But I just don't think they match up very well with Alabama, and it's going to take some mistakes to allow them to stay in the game and win it. We'll see.
 

domeronaroll

BamaNation Citizen
Dec 17, 2005
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Most likely score?
Alabama 20 Notre Dame 19

Possible outcomes? Here are four:

1. Alabama wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Alabama 30, Notre Dame 9
Probability: 20%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows a return TD or a 50+ yard return.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows at least one long TD, think Yeldon on a screen or wheel route.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on three long drives, including one in the 4Q. Alabama OL continues their dominance.
* Alabama wins the turnover battle by two or more.

2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
Probability: 10%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
* Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.

3. Alabama wins a close game... Alabama 20, Notre Dame 19
Probability: 40%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues. Alabama scores two TDs, while Notre Dame scores only one TD.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows favorable field position for Alabama on two occasions. Alabama special teams never allow Notre Dame any breathing room in field position.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows too many 3rd down conversions, and Alabama keeps possession for 35 minutes.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on two long drives, including one in the 4Q.
* Experienced Saban/McCarron make better tactical decisions than inexperienced Kelly/Golston.

4. Notre Dame wins a close game, say... Notre Dame 20, Alabama 18
Probability: 30%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is unable to exploit Notre Dame defense frequently playing man coverage on Alabama WRs.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run in second half and limits Lacy/Yeldon to 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least one red zone mismatch, leading to at least one TD.
* Notre Dame commits to the run, refrains from turnovers, and cranks out first downs in the 4Q (or overtime)
 
Last edited:

CajunCrimson

Moderator (FB,BB) and Vinyl Enthusiast
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Mar 13, 2001
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Coach Saban with 6+ weeks to prepare

Slot ND's offense compared to those we've already played:

Are they better offensively than UT?
Are they better offensively than Michigan?
Are they better offensively than Ole Miss?

I think they are probably offensively equivalent to Ole Miss or UT --

How many points have we scored against top 50 Defenses?

#8 rated Defense LSU - 21 Pts
#11 rated Defense Michigain - 41 Pts
#27 Georgia - 32 Pts
#23 WKY - 35 Pts
#49 Ole Miss - 33 Pts

32+ PPG vs Top 50 Defenses
30+ PPG vs Top 25 Defenses

So, scoring 21 seems reasonable..... with 6+ weeks to prepare, 27 seems probably, 30 seems possible

Can Notre Dame Score more than 20? In their games VS Top 50 Defenses they scored 20 PPG
In their games vs Top 25 Defenses? -- 18 PPG
In games VS Top 15 Defenses? 16.6 PPG

With all said --

Bama 22 - 5 FGs and 1 TD :) - late in the 4th!
ND - 6
 

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