Examining Saban’s 9-7 Record Against the Barn

deliveryman35

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It’s off -season and I thought we could take a deep dive into what really has been somewhat of a head-scratcher during these past 10-11 years of glory and that is Saban’s rather unstellar record against the barn when compared against his overall record. 9-7 is his all-time record if I am correct, which is ONE game over .500. Numerous reasons have been put forth and I have my thoughts on the matter, but I’m interested in reading what a broad cross section of our fellow posters think. Has it just been sheer luck or good fortune for the barn, or is it something else? I look forward to hearing what all of y’all think.
 

Ole Man Dan

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It’s off -season and I thought we could take a deep dive into what really has been somewhat of a head-scratcher during these past 10-11 years of glory and that is Saban’s rather unstellar record against the barn when compared against his overall record. 9-7 is his all-time record if I am correct, which is ONE game over .500. Numerous reasons have been put forth and I have my thoughts on the matter, but I’m interested in reading what a broad cross section of our fellow posters think. Has it just been sheer luck or good fortune for the barn, or is it something else? I look forward to hearing what all of y’all think.
One of the differences is the Auburn team seems to get away with holding on a heck of a lot of plays... AND... Auburn has seemingly had the 'Luck of the Irish' when they play Alabama.
Lastly...
I hesitate to say this, but Auburn can be a very good team when they play emotionally.
When Auburn plays an unemotional game, they tend to doze off and lose.

On the other hand we generally play with a professional demeanor, and I think it has cost us occasionally. Notably in some games against Auburn and Clemson...
I've watched us play like we were sleepwalking during the first half in lots of games, then the coaches would wake em up at halftime.

I've been at a loss to explain several losses to Auburn, unless our guys just didn't have their head in the game... (Got to blame our coaches when our guys come out and mope around)
 

BamaInBham

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The difference between 9 and 7 is 2.

CNS was 2-3 vs AU at LSU.

CNS has won 7 of the last 10 vs AU at Bama. 2 of those 3 losses were against 2 of the best AU teams of all time with "unusual" circumstances, the other one was with a severely injured D and the last stand on a one-legged offense. I.e., AU has been good and fortunate, Bama has been great and unfortunate. Bama has beaten AU by 10 or more in 6 of those wins, 2 against ranked AU teams, including 3 absolute humiliations and 2 comfortable 2 TD+ wins. One of their wins was with one of the greatest teams in their history with their greatest player ever vs the worst Bama team and the only one that has lost more than 1 reg season game in the last 10 years, the 9-3 2010 team. That was a one point loss with a couple of once in a decade type plays along with a couple of other breaks.

This current Bama run must be incredibly frustrating for AU since they are on one of the greatest runs in their history, but are almost an afterthought because of Bama's massive shadow. They just can't keep up, even with their success, playing twice in the last 8 years for the NC. Their primary relevance is that they give outside hope to many that they can derail the Bama NC run, which they did once in 2013.

CNS is doing fine at Bama vas AU. Could be better, but 70% vs a good program that has played for the NC twice in the last 10 years is a nice job.
 

tusks_n_raider

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I know we've talked about this before in other threads but I honestly can't remember if I've ever commented about it. Let's look at the games.

2000 - 8-4 LSU Loses to 9-4 (Western Division Champion) AU 34-17 in Jordan-Hare (Record 0-1) - This was CNS 1st year when LSU was 3-8 in the previous season.

2001 - 10-3 LSU (SEC Champion) Beats 7-5 AU Team 27-14 (Record 1-1)

2002 - 8-5 LSU Loses to 9-4 AU 31-7 in Jordan-Hare (Record 1-2)

2003 - 13-1 LSU (National/SEC Champions) Beats 8-5 AU 31-7 (Record 2-2)

2004 - 9-3 LSU Loses to 13-0 AU (SEC Champion) 10-9 in Jordan-Hare (Record 2-3)


2007 - 7-6 ALA Loses to 9-4 AU 17-10 in Jordan-Hare (Record 2-4) This was CNS 1st year when ALA was 6-7 in the previous season. Also after starting 6-2 several key players were suspended for the season (Caldwell, Davis, Marquis Johnson, Coffee etc etc)


2008 - 12-2 ALA (SEC West Division Champion) Beats 5-7 AU 36-0 (Record 3-4)


2009 - 14-0 ALA (National/SEC Champion) Beats 8-5 AU 26-21 (Record 4-4)


2010 - 10-3 ALA Loses to 14-0 AU (National/SEC Champion) in BD 28-27 (Record 4-5) Blew a 24-0 Lead aided with the help of the most ridiculously fluke-lucky 30+ yard fumble touchback in NCAA History.


2011 - 12-1 ALA (National Champion) Beats 8-5 AU 42-14 (Record 5-5)


2012 - 13-1 ALA (National/SEC Champion) Beats 3-9 AU 49-0 (Record 6-5)


2013 - 11-2 ALA Loses to 12-2 AU (National Runner-Up) 34-28 in Jordan-Hare (Record 6-6) Due to one of the most miraculous plays in CFB History.


2014 - 12-2 ALA (SEC Champion) Beats 8-5 AU 55-44 (Record 7-6)


2015 - 14-1 ALA (National/SEC Champion) Beats 7-6 AU 29-13 (Record 8-6)


2016 - 14-1 ALA (SEC Champion) Beats 8-5 AU 30-12 (Record 9-6)


2017 - 13-1 ALA (National Champion) Loses to 10-4 AU in Jordan-Hare (SEC West Champion) 26-14 (Record 9-7)


1) Okay so what stands out to me is that right off the bat CNS lost to 2 quality AU teams on the Road in his 1st years at both LSU and ALA after inheriting both teams with losing records the year before.

2) Out of the 7 Overall Losses SIX were in that dang blasted Voodoo-Doll Indian Burial Ground Jordan-Hare Stadium.

3) At Alabama his 4 AU losses are by an avg margin of 6.5 Points. So they are close games and mostly at JH.

4) At Alabama his 7 Wins over AU are by an avg margin of 23.3 Points. The Wins are BLOWOUT CITY.

5) At Alabama 4 of the 7 Wins have been against AU Teams that finished 8-5. They weren't 'Good 9 Win Teams' because we kept them from winning 9 games. It's not our fault the other 3 AU teams were trash.

CNS's record is not as 'Bad' as it looks. Most of the losses were on the road at JH. 3 of the 7 Losses were to AU's Three Best teams of the Modern era 2004 (#2 Undefeated) 2010 (National Champion) 2013 (National Runner-Up).

The only 2 honest to goodness head scratching upsets are 2013 (Miracle Play) and 2017 where we were banged up and they were white hot and just outplayed us while we were held 1-dimensional by the QB situation.

CNS is honestly a couple bounces away from being 9-2 vs AU at Alabama instead of 7-4. The Mark Ingram Fumble Touchback and that 2013 'Play' are the two freakiest lucky bounces I've ever seen in my life.

But most importantly during all this we have won 5 National Titles and 5 SEC Titles. AU has won 1 National Title and 2 SEC Titles. Then there are two other years they were so spent after winning the IB they couldn't finish.... 2013, 2017


Oh and when is AU going to join the CFP?? We have participated in all 4. We FINISH. Everything is Fine.
 
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B1GTide

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I am throwing out the LSU years and 2007 - those games simply are not relevant as they were not Saban's Alabama teams.

That leaves Saban 7-3 against Auburn. 2 of those losses were very close games, with Auburn going on to play in the BCSNC game - so both were against very, very good Auburn teams. You tip your cap. The third loss - we all understand how that one happened.

IMO, you can't really talk about W/L records across 10 years and draw larger conclusions. Every game has a life of its own, and its own story to tell. No streaks here - just a bunch of games played between very good programs, each with its own outcome. The only lesson to be learned is that you have to take Auburn seriously (as a fan). They are a lot better than most Alabama fans would like to admit.
 

Redwood Forrest

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The most frustrating loss of all is the last one. We went into the tiger's den and committed suicide. That still makes me want to get in a certain person's face and scream "what were you thinking?"


It seems to be one suicide, one lucky bounce and one great QB in 2010.
 
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GrayTide

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I agree with B1G, auburn, with the exception of a few years, is a very good team in spite of their HCs. I have made this point numerous times and, am usually met with criticism. They circle the IB every year and in most cases play their best game of the season.
 

81usaf92

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If Auburn has something to play for.... They beat us every time.


If they don’t.... we usually skunk them everytime. The only exceptions are 09 and 14
 

bamamick

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Auburn is a very tough place to play. In my humble opinion it is the best home field advantage in the SEC right now. So when they are good it is VERY difficult to beat them over there. The day they beat us this past season they would have beaten any team in the country, not a doubt in my mind.

I don't like a lot of their fan base, but I can accept it when someone has kicked our butts, and this past season that's exactly what they did.

rtr
 

Redwood Forrest

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Auburn is a very tough place to play. In my humble opinion it is the best home field advantage in the SEC right now. So when they are good it is VERY difficult to beat them over there. The day they beat us this past season they would have beaten any team in the country, not a doubt in my mind.

I don't like a lot of their fan base, but I can accept it when someone has kicked our butts, and this past season that's exactly what they did.

rtr
I have to disagree with the notion that Auburn kicked our butts last year. If Coach had not made the switch at QB in the CFP, would Georgia have kicked our butts? No, it means we committed suicide, just like at Auburn.
 

81usaf92

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The difference between 9 and 7 is 2.

CNS was 2-3 vs AU at LSU.

CNS has won 7 of the last 10 vs AU at Bama. 2 of those 3 losses were against 2 of the best AU teams of all time with "unusual" circumstances, the other one was with a severely injured D and the last stand on a one-legged offense. I.e., AU has been good and fortunate, Bama has been great and unfortunate. Bama has beaten AU by 10 or more in 6 of those wins, 2 against ranked AU teams, including 3 absolute humiliations and 2 comfortable 2 TD+ wins. One of their wins was with one of the greatest teams in their history with their greatest player ever vs the worst Bama team and the only one that has lost more than 1 reg season game in the last 10 years, the 9-3 2010 team. That was a one point loss with a couple of once in a decade type plays along with a couple of other breaks.

This current Bama run must be incredibly frustrating for AU since they are on one of the greatest runs in their history, but are almost an afterthought because of Bama's massive shadow. They just can't keep up, even with their success, playing twice in the last 8 years for the NC. Their primary relevance is that they give outside hope to many that they can derail the Bama NC run, which they did once in 2013.

CNS is doing fine at Bama vas AU. Could be better, but 70% vs a good program that has played for the NC twice in the last 10 years is a nice job.
I think 2010 was probably one of the best top to bottom team CNS has had, but the inexperience on defense, the competitive edge 6 teams on the schedule got, and the lack of creativity from the offensive game plan ultimately did us in against USCe and LSU. Lack of execution in the second half did us in against Auburn. That Auburn team was begging to get beat with that defense but Mac went way too conservative like he did in the Texas game when we got up big. The only difference was Cam isn’t Gilbert.

The 2013 game is on Nuss IMO. It’s pretty telling when Amari puts up 200+ yards two years in a row against the same defense. If Blake put up those numbers then I believe AJ was more than capable of putting up those numbers. But Nuss was bound and determined to run Yeldon up the middle vs a loaded box.

2017 we just got our butts kicked. I think had we done more outside running then we may have made it closer, but ultimately I don’t think we were stopping Stidham in the 4th quarter with our defense banged up


I think the losses mostly deal with offensive conservatism and Auburn spirit. Notice that CLK is 3-0 as a OC against them.
 

81usaf92

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I have to disagree with the notion that Auburn kicked our butts last year. If Coach had not made the switch at QB in the CFP, would Georgia have kicked our butts? No, it means we committed suicide, just like at Auburn.
UGA for a half kicked our butts so to answer your question Yes we got our butts kicked. You can’t play this What if Tua game and ignore the result to try to change the narrative. Sure it’s probably a different game we Tua, but it’s still stands as the most dominanting meaningful loss since 2010
 
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UAH

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I agree with B1G, auburn, with the exception of a few years, is a very good team in spite of their HCs. I have made this point numerous times and, am usually met with criticism. They circle the IB every year and in most cases play their best game of the season.
The interesting fact to me over all of Coach Bryant's and the subsequent coaches careers is the fact that Auburn has always competed so well in recruiting in Alabama, Georgia and Florida. Regardless of their home field advantage one has to admit that they have consistently put a competitive team on the field and have been willing to do what is necessary to compete on the field against Alabama.

Some here likely recall Coach Bryant saying that they should never recruit successfully against the state university but that has proven to not be such an overwhelming obstacle.

As difficult as it is to admit there have been periods under Pat Dye and Tuberville that they just put a better football team on the field. With all of his tremendous success CNS has not totally solved that puzzle.
 

81usaf92

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The interesting fact to me over all of Coach Bryant's and the subsequent coaches careers is the fact that Auburn has always competed so well in recruiting in Alabama, Georgia and Florida. Regardless of their home field advantage one has to admit that they have consistently put a competitive team on the field and have been willing to do what is necessary to compete on the field against Alabama.

Some here likely recall Coach Bryant saying that they should never recruit successfully against the state university but that has proven to not be such an overwhelming obstacle.

As difficult as it is to admit there have been periods under Pat Dye and Tuberville that they just put a better football team on the field. With all of his tremendous success CNS has not totally solved that puzzle.
I forget who said it, but the question was posed to some analyst on Al.com “Would Dabo succeed at Alabama?” He said “yes” then the follow up question was “ Are there things Dabo could do better than CNS” the guy said, “ His teams would be far more emotionally invested in the iron bowl than CNS”

I think there is some truth to it. CNS tries to treat every game like the last, but Auburn treats the Iron Bowl like the NCG. It just seems like we come in with a game plan and won’t deviate from it regardless of the situation. They are constantly trying to find one that sticks.

Yeah we are going to beat them far more times than they beat us but sometimes Sara Connor just finds a way to blow up the terminator. Auburn will continue to beat us every 3-4 years because they play above their heads with a pretty talented team.
 
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KrAzY3

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Why in the heck are we counting what happened at LSU? It was a different team facing a different coach. There's no meaningful data to be found there, just demonstrates an obsession with Auburn...
 

Crimson White

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His record at LSU is irrelevant to me, and the first year is a tough one for any coach, so I didn't sweat that one.

The 2010 game was one of the most bizarre games I have watched, considering that crazy fumble that bounced straight down the sideline and out of the endzone, and the fumble at the Auburn 3 yard line that lay on the field for what seemed an eternity till their guy ran around 2 of our linemen to fall on it. That aside, I have to admit that Cam Newton was a very good qb, and that's what beats Saban more often than anything. The 2013 ending was pretty crazy too, but they may have beaten us in overtime anyway. They were playing better than us by the end of the game.

Last year, though, I think falls squarely on Coach Saban. Even though the defense was decimated with injuries, I think we'd have beaten Auburn with Tagovailoa. The offense managed 14 points. Daboll said he wanted to play Tua earlier. I wish it had happened. Some folks seem to be ok with losing to Auburn because we won the national title. I'm never ok with losing to Auburn. I just don't like them.
 

selmaborntidefan

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It’s off -season and I thought we could take a deep dive into what really has been somewhat of a head-scratcher during these past 10-11 years of glory and that is Saban’s rather unstellar record against the barn when compared against his overall record. 9-7 is his all-time record if I am correct, which is ONE game over .500. Numerous reasons have been put forth and I have my thoughts on the matter, but I’m interested in reading what a broad cross section of our fellow posters think. Has it just been sheer luck or good fortune for the barn, or is it something else? I look forward to hearing what all of y’all think.
My cynicism will show, no doubt.

I think WAY TOO MUCH is made of this stuff. WAY too much.


Tidefans: "Tennessee is our real rival, NOT Auburn, I wish Auburn played in the East and we didn't play them every year."
Same Tidefans: "Why can't Saban beat our arch rival Auburn when they've got a good team?"

I've written on this board ad nauseous about the whole thing, but first let's dispel a few myths:


1) There is hardly ever a real "upset" in the Iron Bowl.

The myth that "any team can win," while 'literally' true, is a misnomer. Virtually every single time this game is played, the better team wins. Even in those cases where we can say the better team didn't win - 1972, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2013, 2017 - the gap between the perceived better team and the perceived underdog wasn't really all that far. Auburn's 1972 team was a 10-1 team ranked #5 that smoked #13 Colorado in the Gator Bowl. The 2001 Auburn team that lost to Alabama, 31-7, wound up with the exact same 7-5 record as the Tide - so how is that an upset? 2002 upsets fans because it was pretty obvious the team didn't even show up to play, but a 10-3 team losing to a 9-4 team isn't really an upset no matter how you try to slice it. Keep in mind this same 2002 Auburn team beat LSU, 31-7, three weeks before Alabama beat the same Saban-coached LSU team, 31-0. They also beat Miss St by a larger margin and lost to UGA by the same 3-point margin Alabama did. In other words.....using common opponents one can argue the teams were virtually even (Arkansas appears to be a substantial outlier - both teams beat Ole Miss.....Alabama substantially but keep in mind the Tide had an off week before playing Eli at home while Auburn played them in Oxford one week after beating LSU, the defending SEC champ.

2010? Well, it's unpopular to say here but fans need to just accept the fact Auburn was a better team that year than we were. We can pile the excuses as high as we want, but they simply were. Yes, the Ingram fumble was the kind of thing that makes you shake your head. But on the flip side "but Mark Barron was injured" not only sounds to me a lot like "if Colt hadn't got hurt," but Auburn had two players (Goggans and Blanc) who missed the first half. I mean, who's to say that didn't help us (to a point) getting the 24-point lead in the first place?

2013? Well, it was winner-take-all so Auburn wasn't BAD by any stretch of the imagination. And last year, Auburn had just thumped #1 Georgia pretty handily.


The only real genuine upset during my lifetime was the 1984 game, and even that only happened because Pat Dye outsmarted himself. He goes for two to set up the field goal for the win......and then decides to bypass the field goal and NOT give the ball to Bo Jackson.


2) Coaches are NOT fired "because they lost the Iron Bowl."

OK caveat. HEAD coaches are not fired because they don't win the IB.

Quick - name one.

Curry? He wasn't fired, he left for UK on his own (and his job at the time was not in danger)
Dye? He left because sanctions he oversaw were coming
Bowden? He was 3-2 and had beaten Alabama the last time they played
DuBose? He was 2-2 and had already resigned when he lost the last one.
Fran? He left on his own.
Tubs? Aside from nobody really knowing whether he quit or was fired, Auburn had been in a bad marriage with the guy since 2003. Oh btw....he'd won 3 of 4 IBs at the time Jetgate happened
Chizik? He was gone anyway (though I will admit if his 2012 team had beaten us, it would have been a MASSIVE upset).
Shula? He wasn't fired because he lost to Auburn, he was fired for a litany of reasons that INCLUDED "has not beaten Auburn," but he was gone anyway.

OK, maybe Doug Barfield. But he had had 3 losing seasons in five years and if you took away his one bright year in 1979, his overall record was 21-22-1.

3) You can't use Saban's record at LSU to say he has trouble with a team.

Saban is 1-1 against ULM at Alabama. Does anyone even care?

Mike DuBose once beat Steve Spurrier TWICE in the span of about nine weeks, including a blowout.
Does ANYBODY - nobody how drunk you are - actually think Dubious is in the same galaxy as Spurrier as a head coach?
Mike Shula beat Urban Meyer, 31-3, in the latter's first season in the SEC.

It's played with a weird shaped ball and stuff happens.


Almost nobody outside of LSU remembers that Saban lost to UAB. Ok, both UAB fans remember it, but I digress.

But okay, let's look at it.

2000 - lost to the SEC Western Division champions; keep in mind this was Saban's FIRST SEC game and on the road
2001 - beat Auburn with the #7 final ranked SEC champions
2002 - lost to Auburn - also routed by Va Tech (who nearly beat #1 Miami), Alabama (best team in SEC West), lost to West champ Arky and needed a miracle to beat 7-5 Kentucky
2003 - beat Auburn with the national champions
2004 - lost 10-9.......

but how many of you saw that last game? LSU took the opening kickoff and scored a TD and missed the PAT five minutes into the game. Auburn tied the game with two minutes to go. Auburn then missed the PAT but got a disputed reprieve from the officials and made the second kick to win, 10-9.

So he was 2-3 and lost all three road games......but every single time Auburn was the better team.


2007 - wasn't even really his team, crippled by Textbookgate......lost by 7....on the road.
2008 - won in a rout. Yes, Auburn was 5-7, but they were close enough to win all their losses but us and WVA
2009 - "but the final score was too close, we almost lost!"

And yet Auburn had a week off to prep, we had a short week (the game was on Friday), we had ALL the pressure on us.......and we won like we should have.
We didn't have the depth then we would during the prime run of 2011-13.

2010 - we lost to the better team, no question.

2011 - we blow them out
2012 - we blow them out

2013 - we DID lose, but how you not give Auburn credit?

We missed three field goals before, you know.
Auburn was a one dimensional running team, and we still couldn't stop them (nearly 300 yards rushing; 39 of their 97 yards passing came on the tying
toss to Coates)
In the final 7 minutes of the game, we had the ball in the Auburn red zone twice.......and got no points.

And let's be honest and admit Auburn out-Sabaned Saban on the return.


Was Alabama the more talented team? Absolutely

But we didn't play better on that day, and Auburn wasn't a "bad" team by any stretch.

2014 - "Alabama has never beaten a nine-win Auburn team"

yeah, because they lost in overtime to Wisconsin........whom they should have beaten.......

2015 - we won, hooray!

2016 - we won again

2017 - yeah we lost, but a lot of us who were at the LSU game or observant with the MSU game should have seen this one coming.

Saban is 7-4 at Alabama vs Auburn. Bryant - at the same mark - was 9-2.
Of course, Bryant didn't play Auburn in Jordan-Hare, ever, either.
He also didn't play them when he was at Kentucky.
And Bryant didn't have scholarship limitations.
Or face (or have) black players.

While losses to Auburn frustrate us to no end, they aren't REALLY any different than almost any other loss. It matters to you folks who live in Alabama on a daily basis, but that's a smaller portion of who actually goes to school at both places than it's ever been. This isn't the old rural days of radio and one appearance per year on TV.


If the three-peat would have ended on the same type of play with a loss to, say, FSU in the national title game or even Missouri in the SEC title game......would it really hurt that much less?

I just don't think so.
 

81usaf92

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Why include Saban's record against AU when he was at LSU? Literally nothing about his time at LSU compares to what he has done at Bama.
Yeah I don’t understand that part as well. Unless you are trying to argue the “ CNS has never beaten a 9 win Auburn team” angle it makes no sense.
 

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