I think the AU -3 line we're seeing is probably about right.
Florida is one of the great unknowns right now in the top 10. They're hard to gauge given who they've beaten. There's not a single P5 win among teams they've played so far. They could be either great or mediocre at season's end. We have nothing to go on.
Few things that are certainly known: they will be the best front 7 we've seen so far and will not give Bo the time he had against aTm and clanga. Bo is more familiar with his receivers and is getting better at hitting his spots, but he had a lot of time in the pocket to do so, a luxury he had the last few weeks he won't have against Florida. Our O line seems to have improved, so hopefully we can run the ball to set up the pass like we're used to doing, but at some point Bo may be asked to make a play.
Bo has proven to have the poise and skillset to be an effective QB in this league, but he's still only a freshman. Aside from the first half of Oregon, he hasn't looked like a freshman, but he's going to have a rough one sooner or later. The Swamp is as good a place as any. Probably the 2nd most hostile environment we'll face this year.
The UF O-line is probably their biggest weakness. Our front 7 should feast on the run game. We don't have much of a pass rush though, and I expect Mullen to call a game meant protect Trask, neutralize the rush and get it to his receivers on the edge in a hurry.
Speaking of receivers, this might be the best unit we see until Bama.
With the small sample size, I really have no clue how this is going to go down, but I think us being slightly favored is fair.