Another interesting note:
In the 20 boxes in the case I ordered, there were 24 regular autographs, 4 serial numbered autographs, and 6 gold cards. That would put the serial numbered autographs at averaging around 1 per 5 hobby boxes. There was at least 1 autograph in each box. In every box that had a gold card there was an accompanying regular autograph. In 3 of the boxes with a serial numbered autograph it was the only autograph in the box. So - out of 20 boxes - 6 boxes had 1 gold card and 1 regular autograph card, 3 boxes had 1 serial numbered autograph card, 1 box had 1 serial numbered autograph card and 1 regular autograph card, 7 boxes had 2 regular autograph cards, and 3 boxes had 1 regular autograph card.
The three boxes that only had one regular autograph card contained the autographed cards of Ozzie Newsome (#26), Clyde Goode III (#56), and Darius Hanks (#85). I don't know if this means that these particular regular autograph cards are short prints (hope so!) or just that 1 out of every 6 boxes or so unluckily only has one regular autograph card that has nothing special about it.
The one box that had both a serial numbered autograph and a regular autograph contained the Dwight Stephenson National Champions autograph card and the regular Josh Chapman (#81) autograph card. I don't know if this means that the Josh Chapman regular autograph card is a long print (meaning more regular autograph card of this particular card than most of the others) or just that 1 out of every 20 boxes or so gets really lucky with both a serial numbered autograph card and a regular autograph card that has nothing special about it.
All of these guesstimates are based upon, one, the assumption that the 20 Hobby Box cases are fairly uniform and, two, the descriptions I've come across online of what people have found in the individual (or a few individual) boxes they've opened.
HOWEVER, there appears to be a problem in the math when factoring in the serial numbered autograph cards. Given the number of individual, serial numbered autograph cards and the number of each card printed that puts the total number of serial numbered autograph cards at 1,748 cards. Averaging 1 of those cards per every 5 Hobby boxes puts the total number of Hobby boxes made at around 9,000 boxes. The 15,000 box estimate I made in the previous post from the apparent frequency of the gold cards would have put the serial numbered cards at 1 per every 8 or 9 boxes - a much larger number than the 1 per 5 number I received in the case I purchased.
The Hobby Box packs state that the odds of receiving an autograph card are 1 per 24 packs while the odds of receiving an Icons card are 1 per 12 packs; gold cards are not mentioned. The Blaster Box packs state that the odds of receiving an autograph card are 1 per 2500 packs while the odds of receiving an Icons card are 1 per 48 packs; gold cards are not mentioned one these either. At 10 packs per Blaster Box, though, even a 10,000 Blaster Box run would not make a significant impact on the number of autograph cards.
A 12,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 2.5 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 7 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
A 10,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 2 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 6 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
An 8,000 Hobby Box run would would, theoretically, average out to around 1 gold card per 1.6 packs or so and 1 serial numbered autograph per every 5 packs or so, depending upon the number of gold cards spread out throughout the Blaster boxes.
This leaves me with basically only three possible conclusions:
1) There are a lot more gold cards spread throughout the Blaster Boxes than autograph cards.
2) The case I bought had significantly fewer gold cards than the average case.
3) The case I bought had significantly more serial numbered autograph cards than the average case.
Without talking to several other who have opened full case and paid attention to what was in that particular case I have no way of knowing which possible conclusion is more likely. Right now I'm leaning more towards the first option. This would
almost certainly mean, though, that the overall number of regular autograph cards was significantly less, say, averaging 150 or so per autograph card rather than 225 or so. This would make them worth more overall.
Regardless, it certainly looks like Upper Deck made significantly fewer total print runs of this set than they did the Texas and Oklahoma sets last year.