While I dismiss the Bama fatigue from the media having an effect on CFP voting I do however believe it does in heisman voting because it’s the media who has a voteWell, if any of those four win out and the respective QB hasn't been suspended or injured, I'd tend to favor whomever that might be really. Here's the FPI win out %, 42.5% for Alabama, 14.1% Ohio State, 8.1% Oklahoma, and .4% West Virginia. So yeah if Grier carries them to an undefeated season, he'll deserve a lot of credit, but they were 7-6 last year so he has a lot of work to do.
In either case, it seems likely either Grier or Murray take the other out. In that case it might bolster the Heisman candidacy of one, but could end the other (much like when AJ and Alabama lost to Manziel and A&M). The worst case for those two if for them to just muddy the waters, if both have losses and both remain candidates they'll just split the Big 12 vote.
It's also interesting that you bring up Heisman moments, because Tua already kind of had his. Due to the quirk in Heisman voting, the playoffs are not included at all. So, Tua's much replayed championship winning pass came both this year and after the previous Heisman voting. Now, of course that was considered last season and doesn't count, but that doesn't erase the psychological impact of the play. It answered one of the biggest questions you can have about a candidate, which is how they'd perform on a big stage against elite competition. All of those other guys are still waiting to have a moment that can compare, and it won't be easy to match.
Let’s say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that. You will already know 4 region’s votes for 1st place.
South: Tua
SW: Grier
Mid Atl: Grier
Mid west: Haskins
Leaving the NE and Far West.
Honestly I believe Alabama blowing folks out might cost Tua. I believe we really need to have a shootout vs Missouri or UGA for Tua to win it. Also some passing records.
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