Re: Fake Saban quote about the NC game going around
WHy is everyone worried about Oklahoma State? There is a gap between Bama and OSU in BCS Poll, and it would take a lot for them to jump ahead of Bama. Alabama is pretty much safe to play for the championship.
They should be, but let's consider the bad scenario. VT loses, and Okie. St wins big.
Remember, Oklahoma is 5th in the computer polls, Okie St. is
barely in third place. By beating Oklahoma they automatically jump to second.
Then, if VT loses, it clears the path for even ethical voters to vote for Okie. St. over Alabama. As it stands Okie. St. is in 5th, but if they beat up on Oklahoma it's pretty fair to think they jump Stanford. VT though, if they beat a good Clemson team becomes harder to jump, especially in the coaches where VT is third and Okie. St is sixth. It's hard to argue that if both win, Okie St. deserves to jump VT and Stanford. If VT and Okie. St. wins I think a likely outcome would be Alabama 2, VT 3 and Okie. St. 4 in the coaches and that would avert disaster. In the Harris, it's more possible for Okie St. to jump VT with a win as they only have to go up one spot. Okie. St. being 4th in just one poll should be enough to keep them out of the BCS.
However, the potential for Okie. St. to be third in both human polls (or even worse, second) is a real risk. If LSU loses, it becomes almost impossible to predict the outcome. Let's just run through a couple likely scenarios.
Okie. St. wins, LSU wins, VT loses:
Okie. St would likely be 3/3/2
Alabama would likely be 2/2/3
This is assuming relatively vanilla outcomes, Okie. St. wins but not in a huge blowout.
Okie. St. wins by a BLOWOUT, LSU wins, VT loses:
Okie. St. could become 2/3/2
Alabama could become 3/2/3
This scenario keeps Alabama out. Basically, the Harris Poll could decide that a Okie St. win was so big they jump a losing VT team and an idle Stanford and Alabama. If that happens, Alabama is out.
I looked back over things again and I don't really see how LSU losing could hurt Alabama. Considering the dynamics of the poll, it would actually provide an extra obstacle for Okie. St. in the Harris as not only do they have to pass up VT somehow, and an idle Stanford but they'd have to jump LSU and Alabama in order for it to hurt Alabama. Going 5th to 1st is highly unlikely in either poll and it's also highly unlikely that LSU loses but doesn't move down a single spot in the polls. So, realistically, if LSU loses it comes to where LSU lands and the computer polls as to which goes. For instance, the polls could be like this:
Okie. St. 3/2/1
Alabama 1/1/3
LSU 2/3/2
In that scenario, the only safe team is Alabama as it comes down to how far things shake up in the polls. So, I'm not really worried about LSU losing as it seems highly unlikely something bad (for Alabama) comes of that.
The risk that is looming (like some of the Heisman talk in which candidates have been left off a ballot intentionally to hurt their chances) is that the pollsters realize they can choose who they want to play and act accordingly. For instance, thankfully the AP is out of the BCS as they already have Oklahoma St. at third. If you want to see AP antics, it's there in black and white. Stanford won convincingly and Okie. St was idle yet they moved Okie. St. from 5th to 3rd, jumping #4 Stanford. The reason for doing this was simple, they wanted to set the table for Okie. St to jump Alabama if they beat Oklahoma. That's all there is to it, they were manipulating the results and going against the logic of their previous votes (they did the same in the OU/LSU/USC year, in which they took votes they had given to LSU or OU and gave them to USC in the final poll simply to run counter to the BCS. There is an article on ESPN detailing how Okie. St. has a chance as well if you want to read it:
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/54347/oklahoma-state-making-strides
So, the AP poll already has a plan in place to crown Okie. St their champs (If they win and LSU loses). There has to be some concern that this kind of blatant manipulation spill over to another poll, but I do consider it highly unlikely as no other poll has that kind of history of going with who they want over who is deserving.
