First, I have to address the "need" to add more football powers. As I allude to additions that could better the conference, I'm sometimes countered by people counting off the SEC BCS championships. Well, it's not the answer to everything, but when you have 5 different programs win a BCS championship it does tell you that the conference has the football powers it needs to compete. The idea that how good a football program should be the measuring stick to an addition, is kind of like a team with an all-pro quarterback evaluating a high profile free agent on how good a quarterback he is. That is almost irrelevant, the question is how well can they contribute in other categories?
The SEC with the addition of Texas A&M has 7 of the top 20 all time football programs! This means, even in the four 16 team super conference scenario, the SEC already has more than their share of elite programs! The idea that they'd need 8 or 9 of the top 20 is plain silly. So, when considering a program, how good they are at football in terms of the SEC's needs is like trying to figure out how much sugar to add to sugar to make a cake.
Having said that, the balance has shifted to the West. The West has an all time ranking of 18, mind you that's 7 teams that average 18th. Anyone that thinks one more football power belongs there is on something pretty strong. The East on the other hand "only" averages 33. Even if you swap out Vanderbilt for Auburn (which makes sense geographically), you still end up with a pretty big imbalance. So, in that regard adding a football power to the East could balance things out a bit more, but it would in total make an already insane SoS go even higher.
To the people that use the steel sharpens steel quote and all of that, remember Utah and Alabama in 2008. I don't think most of us legitimately think Utah was a better team. So what happened? Alabama was exhausted at that point and Utah was focused. We both know who played the tougher schedule, but Utah if anything benefited from their lack of difficult games. Saban has alluded to this before, stating that a team can only get up for so many big games a year.
So, talking about how good a football program has done as a measure of their value to current SEC teams is like talking about how fast a guy runs, who you are hiring as a race car driver. That's not what it can be about. But, prestige does matter a bit. If you're talking about a Notre Dame, Ohio St., or even Texas, what they are as a program goes beyond just what they do on the football field because of their prestige. Let's not fool ourselves though, there's no football program in Virginia or North Carolina with prestige.
In regards to North Carolina and NC State, there is just no real comparison. Looking at attendance figures from last year, NC St. managed 237 more per game. Both had a very respectable 56K, putting them in a virtual tie with supposed football power West Virginia, and only 1K behind Okie St. They even had similar records. As football powers? Neither really have merit, NC is is 46th, NC State is 68th. NC State is a great earner in basketball, this I know. But, when we're talking about North Carolina, we're talking about true prestige in basketball. Psychologically, if the Big 10 gets NC and the SEC gets NC State, the SEC is the clear loser, and they'll be losing a few bucks in the bargain. I would not mind NC State as an addition, but I would mind it if NC then goes to the Big 10.
Virginia and Virginia Tech is not as clear cut. The problem I have with Tech is that almost all their worth is in the notion that they are a football power. They're 60th all time. That puts them 7 whole spots ahead of Virginia. My concern is that all of this value is built on Beamer's run of 8 straight ten win seasons. That, I can assure you, will not continue in the SEC. So, what then? What value is if they revert to their origins once Beamer is gone? They'd clearly become bottom tier in the SEC and what of their 66K stadium then (mind you, some thought that A&M who averaged 87K wasn't good enough for the SEC)? So, I'm befuddled by VT's selling point as a football power, when historically speaking they'd be the worst SEC program in football. I do understand, that they currently are more popular, considering the streak of 10 win seasons and the fact that Virginia hasn't won 10 games since 1989. But, once again that's likely to change in the SEC, and what if it doesn't? What of South Carolina (who averaged 13K more than VT), or Kentucky if they just get pushed lower on the totem pole?
I wanted to see how VT did on a down year, so I went as far back as I could, to 1997. That year, VT was 7-5. Virginia was 7-4. VT averaged 43,176 and Virginia averaged 41,514. This was well into an impressive run by Beamer, but then again Virginia was doing half-way decent as well. So, all this really tells me is that both programs in terms of football really are not quite SEC level. But, I think VT carries all the risk with them. We can't really be sure how VT would do if they struggle, we know the SEC needs no more football powers, so certainly if VT arrives someone will struggle. On the other hand, we know Virginia will get a decent amount of support even if they stink things up, which they are capable of doing. I'll admit this though, I could go either way. If NC was on board, I'd be fine with VT as the other team and I'd hope they do fill the void that would exist between Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and North Carolina and UT, Florida and Georgia. It also goes back to another sort of prestige. Virginia, in the world of academia has more value. They are ranked 25th, VT is ranked 71st. The reasons Virginia might not want to join are the same reasons they'd be a better addition.
My main concern though is that the SEC ends up on the short end of the stick. We already know Notre Dame is more likely to join the Big 10. Well, if the Big 10 gets the main programs in North Carolina and Virginia on top of that, well that's bad in terms of their power and wealth. The SEC would be getting leftovers in VT and NC State and on top of that, they'd probably have a tougher time with SoS, while the elites in the Big 10 could sink their teeth into a couple programs that probably won't put up much of a fight.
The SEC is not just in a position to get additions that have their own merit, they need additions that clearly better their financial situation. I think we can all agree that any combination of VT, Virginia, NC and NC State that moves the SEC into North Carolina and Virginia both, would meet that criteria. However, they are also in a power struggle with the Big 10. The Big 10 hates the SEC, the Big 10 wants an anti-SEC post season. The Big 10 wants to monopolize the biggest bowl game. The Big 10 distributes the most money. They are clearly the enemy and in that regard, the SEC needs to compete on all fronts with the Big 10.
If the SEC was able to add NC and Virginia, it would be a win financially, academically, and psychologically. Obviously, the inverse is true if the Big 10 is the one that ends up with those two.
