I feel pretty good that ND is going to lose in the Coliseum. ND hasn't played a team that can really put on points like USC. After that we're hoping for Oregon to just get unlucky in a shoot out and Texas to play well in a big game for the first time in 3+ years. In that regard, it is something that we can think about in the back of our mind as fans but I'm more worried about beating our biggest rival to seal the division title then playing a team that is frankly far more complete than us in Atlanta.
Georgia is kind of the amalgamation of what we've seen the last two weeks. They've got the scheme and depth at tailback of LSU with the QB-receiver combo of TAMU. Granted, Aaron Murray is not the greased pig Manziel looked like against us...but they can get into base personnel like LSU and pass it around effectively like TAMU. If the last two weeks are any indication, it would take massive improvement for Alabama to defend well enough to win. This is before considering the issues UGA's defense presents. They've underperformed at times but they've started gelling after some early suspensions. Their defense is about in the same tier personnel wise as LSU's and their offense is in the same tier as TAMUs.
The problem to me is that it is November not September. When we fell to South Carolina in 2010, I had hope that we could improve enough to have a back door shot at the SECCG and BCSCG. I didn't really materialize but the defense did come together to a degree but injuries kind of hurt the month of November. It is middle of November, we've got to ride through with what we've got at this point. The secondary might improve but how much can we improve with two more weeks before the SECCG week?
Texas has to the potential to take down K-State based on raw talent alone, though I wouldn't bank on it. Odds are they finish up 12-0 and play in Miami against Oregon.
Think some people are just putting far too many eggs into the USC basket. It's a 7-3 Lane Kiffin-led team that got knocked around by Rich Rod, zero depth, and frankly if they were that good they would be in contention themselves. ND might trip up against them because the Irish aren't that good, but none of that matters unless K-State loses too. In any event, I don't see any way USC takes down Oregon, they just don't have the defensive depth to hold against that scheme over 60 minutes.
As for UGA, it's a tough bunch, admittedly. When they are on -- as I would expect them to be against us -- they are as good as anyone in the country. They will be a lot of trouble for us, frankly. As bad as McCarron has been, the UGA defense will force him into a long night, and if Mett can pick apart the UA secondary, you better bet that Murray can too. Not exactly feeling bullish about that Grantham v. Nussmeier match-up after the past couple of weeks, either.
We'll see what happens with us, but I wouldn't bank too much on further improvement. When you're eleven weeks into the season, you are what you are, and unlike 2010, injuries hasn't been a major issue this season on defense (in fact, we've been remarkably healthy on defense). We've just got to get a lot better level of play out of the kids we have back there, and that may not come until next season. In hindsight, I think Saban was pretty on-point about his concerns with this team even in the pre-season: We've got a lot of guys who are playing key roles without a lot of experience.