Pick the score: Alabama vs. Georgia SECCG

CRMSNtide

1st Team
Jul 4, 2011
345
73
52
like i said before, we've dogded a lot of bullets in the passing game this year, where receivers have been wide open and were either missed by the qb or they dropped the ball...but they were wide open...which means that our coverage wasn't good enough and which also means that a better passing attack would likely have been successful in those wide-open situations. case in point (and i'm not saying this would have affected the outcome of the game at all but it's the most recent glaring example) but the int in the auburn game where the tight end tipped the ball and it was intercepted...the tight end was wide open for about a 20+ gain...if the ball had been thrown well. if we let guys get that wide open against GA, and we don't get pressure on murray, he'll eat us alive on those plays. i'm not saying our pass defense is terrible, but it's rating has been inflated somewhat by the fact that we've allowed guys to be wide open consistently through the season but the other side has not been able to capitalize on it. if we don't get pressure on murray, he will have open receivers and more than likely he'll get the ball to them.
I do think this years defense has some issues from time to time, it's not as good as last years defense, they were about as perfect as a college defense could be and we lost 4 legit first round picks from that side of the ball.

This years defense is still very good though, only giving up 9 points a game, take away the unique situation of defending A&M and their dual threat QB and nobody has put up any big points on us.

Best o-line in the nation, AJ and Cooper are looking fresh again, we can score on them.

Just a little back and forth between Bama fans here, we all want the same thing, hope i didn't come off like a jerk earlier, i didn't mean it to come out that way.
 

PacadermaTideUs

All-American
Dec 10, 2009
4,072
289
107
Navarre, FL
Looking at season long performance - both Alabama and Georgia score 13 ppg more than their opponent's defenses have allowed all season. Very even. Defensively, things look a bit different:

Alabama allows 21 fewer points per game than it opponents have scored
Georgia allows 11 fewer points per game than it opponents have scored


Alabama has never allowed an opponent within 13 points of its average ppg this season, while Georgia has allowed 5 opponents to reach or surpass its ppg average. Georgia has simply not been as consistent. But when Georgia is on its game, its is right there with Alabama defensively.

Using GA's season stats, the final score would be Alabama 28, Georgia 22
Using Alabama's season stats, the final score would be Alabama 31, Georgia 17


I am going with a score that reflects Alabama and Georgia playing up to their full potentials defensively:

Alabama 24 - Georgia 17
Good post, but it's actually even a little more in Bama's favor and lower-scoring than your numbers indicate, particularly on offense. This is so because your numbers include games against FCS opponents - not a good measuring stick, because performance against FCS opponents tends to inflate and/or skew stats.


Not including FCS opponents,

Bama s
cores 10.9 points per game (39.9%) more than its opponents allow.
Georgia
scores 9.5 points per game (34.0%) more than its opponents allow.

Bama allows 17.3 points per game (63.2%) less than its opponents have scored.
Georgia allows 7.3 points per game (29.0%) less than its opponents have scored.

Using Bama's FBS-only offensive/defensive percentages against UGA's FBS offensive/defensive averages, the final score would be Alabama 25, Georgia 14.
Using UGA's FBS-only offensive/defensive percentages against Bama's FBS offensive/defensive averages, the final score would be Alabama 27, Georgia 14.


The disparity gets even greater, particularly on defense,when you only consider the games against the two teams' five common opponents (Florida Atlantic, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, and Auburn).


In those games...

Bama scores 9.6 points per game (30.1%) more than its opponents allow.
Georgia
scores 12.6 points per game (39.5%) more than its opponents allow.

Bama allows 16.0 points per game (64.5%) less than its opponents have scored.
Georgia allows 6.0 points per game (24.3%) less than its opponents have scored.

Using Bama's offensive/defensive percentages against those five opponents against UGA's offensive/defensive averages against those five opponents, the final score would be Alabama 25, Georgia 16.
Using UGA's offensive/defensive percentages against those five opponents against Bama's offensive/defensive averages against those five opponents, the final score would be Alabama 32, Georgia 12.


No matter how you seem to look at this game statisti
cally, on paper anyway, Bama has the edge. And all things considered, a score of around 28-14 looks reasonable. In my prediction (27-17), I nudged it a tad closer simply because I think both teams will come out playing it a bit closer to the vest due to what's at stake (a berth in the NCG). But, statistically anyway, all the trends are remarkably consistent, and decidedly in Bama's favor at around 28-14.

Just wait though... when the game's over with a final s
core of 49-3, I'll have to remember that that's why they play the game on the field instead of just gather together in a room full of calculators.
 

dawgsfan1973

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 20, 2012
55
0
0
Georgia 24
Alabama 20

I feel it's going to be a great game with a late drive that seals the deal for the Dawgs.
 

Go Bama

Hall of Fame
Dec 6, 2009
13,784
14,076
187
16outa17essee
Bama 27
Dogs 10

I just don't see Georgia getting more than 10 on our defense unless Aaron Murray gets hot. No hot QB ... you lose to Alabama.
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
20,931
15,930
282
Boone, NC
Bamamoon,heres some more numbers for you to crunch, mark richts record against the crimson tide. 3 wins 1 loss
Kinda misleading to throw that number out there don't you think when only one of those games matters right now. Oh, and what happened during that game???
 

GADAWG1980

Scout Team
Sep 26, 2011
155
0
0
Between the hedges
I was just posting coach richts record against alabama. Besides the 08 game in athens we have played well against alabama. But honestly,yall know and we know that doesnt mean anything. Yall have a great team,THAT PLAYS AS A COHESIVE UNIT EVERY WEEK. We have a great team of individually talented athletes that sometimes play as a cohesive unit. Itll be interesting to see if we decide to play disciplined,assignment football this saturday or play individually,every man for himself.
 

GADAWG1980

Scout Team
Sep 26, 2011
155
0
0
Between the hedges
Kinda misleading to throw that number out there don't you think when only one of those games matters right now. Oh, and what happened during that game???
None of those previous games matter to us. The only one that matters is the game yet to be played. To what game are you reffering??seeing as how weve never met in a championship game before??
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
20,931
15,930
282
Boone, NC
None of those previous games matter to us. The only one that matters is the game yet to be played. To what game are you reffering??seeing as how weve never met in a championship game before??
The last one matters more than the others you brought up because that was before CNS was our coach. What, the three victories are against Shula and Dubose?

Your right in that only Saturday matters right now. Good luck for a hard fought, clean game with no injuries!
 

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