Both defenses have played against 2 offenses ranked in the top 30. Bama: aTm (#3) and UT (#20). GA: UT(#20) and GT (#28).
Against the common opponent of those four, Bama - on the road - held UT to 23 points below their average and 194 yards below their avg. GA - at home - allowed UT to score 8 points more than their average and 2 yards more than their average. The common opponent comparison weighs heavily in favor of Bama.
Against Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs, held them to 26 points below average and 33 yds below average. Bama held aTm to 16 points below their average and 134 yards below their average. This comparison is a mixed bag since a)UGA won and Bama lost; and b) aTm's offense is night and day better than GT's -- so hard to determine who gets the edge. One significant stat is that both of these opponents ran for over 4.5 yds per carry against GA.
Both offenses have played against 2 teams that rank in the top 20 defenses in the country: Vandy (#18), FL (#5) and Michigan (#12) and LSU (#9). No common opponents here.
Against Vandy, GA scored 30 points more than the 'dores allow and 241 more yards than the defense normally gives up. The 'Dawgs scored 5 more points and 10 less yards than the Gators allow. Against the Gators, GA was able to start 4 possessions in FL territory due to turnovers (3 inside the 26 yd line), coming away with only 10 points.
Against Michigan, Bama scored 22 more points and had 120 more yards than UM allowed on the season. Against LSU, Bama scored 4 more points 35 more yards than the Tigers gave up on average during the season. Of note, Bama averaged 6.6 yds per carry against the Tigers (#10 rushing D nationally) and absolutely rammed it down their throat when the game was on the line.
The bottom line on this - for me, at least - is that against the common opponent, our defense was far superior. GA really struggled to stop the run against the two best offenses they faced, while Bama averaged over 6 yards per carry against the two best defenses it has faced. This should be the difference in this game. Throw out the Vandy and Michigan games and compare our game against LSU and GA vs FL - the two toughest defenses either team faced. LSU played the game of their lives; yet Bama withstood the test and rammed it down their throats when the game was on the line. FL turned the ball over SIX times (4 in their own territory) and GA could only turn that into a 8 point victory.
Anything can happen; but Bama should win this game. It's why they are favored. And for some reason, I just cannot get the UT and KY games for GA out of my mind. We haven't struggled with anyone we shouldn't have.