Pick the Score: Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCSNCG

Padreruf

Hall of Fame
Feb 12, 2001
8,687
12,227
287
73
Charleston, South Carolina
17-6 Bama. My only concern is that ND has learned how to win close games...and we do not set the edge against the run as strong as last year. They may get a big play or two off the pass, but nothing consistent.
 

NDGiantsKings

Suspended
Dec 2, 2012
31
0
0
2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
Probability: 10%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
* Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.
I don't think it will happen but if McCarron were to get knocked out of the game the score would probable be more like 16-0 with Kelly going extremely conservative
 

Isaiah 63:1

All-American
Dec 8, 2005
2,508
2,154
187
Probably at 35k or in an airport somewhere
Most likely score?
Alabama 20 Notre Dame 19

Possible outcomes? Here are four:

1. Alabama wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Alabama 30, Notre Dame 9
Probability: 20%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows a return TD or a 50+ yard return.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows at least one long TD, think Yeldon on a screen or wheel route.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on three long drives, including one in the 4Q. Alabama OL continues their dominance.
* Alabama wins the turnover battle by two or more.

2. Notre Dame wins by more than 10 points! Let's say... Notre Dame 26, Alabama 10
Probability: 10%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is knocked out of the game, and Notre Dame defense feasts on inexperienced backup QBs, deja vu Garrett Gilbert circa 2010.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run and continues to forbid running TDs in the red zone. Notre Dame DL continues their dominance.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep single coverage, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least two red zone mismatches, leading to at least one and perhaps two TDs.
* Notre Dame wins the turnover battle by two or more.

3. Alabama wins a close game... Alabama 20, Notre Dame 19
Probability: 40%
Factors:
* Notre Dame offensive futility in the red zone continues. Alabama scores two TDs, while Notre Dame scores only one TD.
* Notre Dame special teams mediocrity allows favorable field position for Alabama on two occasions. Alabama special teams never allow Notre Dame any breathing room in field position.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield allows too many 3rd down conversions, and Alabama keeps possession for 35 minutes.
* Alabama running game out of the I-formation continues to prove to be unstoppable, chews clock on two long drives, including one in the 4Q.
* Experienced Saban/McCarron make better tactical decisions than inexperienced Kelly/Golston.

4. Notre Dame wins a close game, say... Notre Dame 20, Alabama 18
Probability: 30%
Factors:
* AJ McCarron is unable to exploit Notre Dame defense frequently playing man coverage on Alabama WRs.
* Notre Dame defensive front seven stops the run in second half and limits Lacy/Yeldon to 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.
* Inexperienced Notre Dame defensive backfield plays deep, allows only "bend but don't break" receptions, continues to forbid passing TDs.
* Accurate Notre Dame PK Kyle Brindza converts all FG opportunities, perhaps 4 of 4.
* Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert wins at least one red zone mismatch, leading to at least one TD.
* Notre Dame commits to the run, refrains from turnovers, and cranks out first downs in the 4Q (or overtime)
Not sure what I think about your probabilities, but the scenarios and outcomes make sense to me. Regardless of the outcome, here's hoping for a well-played game, no injuries, improved respect from each fanbase for the other.
 

AlabasterBama

3rd Team
Dec 14, 2006
259
0
40
49
Alabaster, Alabama
If we stick to the running game and pound the football
Bama-23
ND-13

If we get into the routine of throw on first down, run on second, throw on third....... things could get uneasy
 

teamplayer

Hall of Fame
Jul 31, 2001
7,571
2,329
282
cullman, al, usa
I am concerned about their defense and their team of destiny confidence. I am also concerned about our turnover issues when playing top teams this year. Watching some of the other SEC teams struggle also concerns me a little bit.
Bama 24
Notre Dame 23

This score would provide some redemption for the long time sufferers of the early 70s.
 

jthomas666

Hall of Fame
Aug 14, 2002
22,587
9,640
287
60
Birmingham & Warner Robins
I had a doctor's appt today, which I only bring up because he's an ND alum who will be going to the game. He thinks Bama has the better team, but figures that anything can happen in one game.

I told him that when I found out he was an ND alum, I made sure my January appt was before the game; that way if we won, I didn't have to worry about him suddenly deciding that I need a prostate exam. :biggrin2::biggrin2::biggrin2::biggrin2::biggrin2::biggrin2::biggrin2:
 

athlete37

Scout Team
Dec 13, 2012
121
95
47
My optimistic prediction: ND 20, Alabama 17. I'm off to Miami in the morning. Good luck Tide fans-- thanks for the hospitality on the board the last couple of weeks.
 

TIDE-HSV

Senior Administrator
Staff member
Oct 13, 1999
84,527
39,615
437
Huntsville, AL,USA
My optimistic prediction: ND 20, Alabama 17. I'm off to Miami in the morning. Good luck Tide fans-- thanks for the hospitality on the board the last couple of weeks.
Bon Voyage, and may you lose with dignity and no injuries. :D Come back, either way and we'll rehash it...
 

Matt0424

All-American
Jan 16, 2010
3,909
0
55
Hoover, Al
A nice stat I heard this evening... Nick Saban teams are 50-0 when rushing for over 140 yards... Can ND hold us under 150? I say emphatically no...
 

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