JessN: BCS preview: Alabama fighting both the Irish and history

jcabama

1st Team
Jul 19, 2004
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Watching the 73 game on ESPNU as I read this and agree with the assessments down the line with exception of ST (think B1GTide called it--no jinx) and believe the only thing that will beat us is the same thing that beat us in that one--a fumble deep in our own territory amongst other turnovers! I don't think we'll run away from them on the scoreboard though I believe we'll feel we are the better team all night. I still think we hold them to fewer than 17 and put at least 23 on the board. Thanks for the analysis Jess.
 

BamaDMD

Hall of Fame
Sep 10, 2007
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i think this quote



is what makes me most comfortable about this game. our team is very experienced at playing knock-down, drag-outs against very physical teams. and we usually come out on top in these games.
I agree. The only thing that has me worried is the line of theirs. Size can be a factor up front. I like big Fluker against their guy though and I hope he's as fired up as he was in the SECCG.
 

Luvubama

All-SEC
May 26, 2008
1,197
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a nod to the 40-, 50- and 60-somethings who still get a certain tightness in their stomachs at the mention of the year 1973.

Jess, I have always enjoyed your analyses but this one really summoned the ghosts you referenced in the quote above. Unlike many on this board I can't shake the demons from that game and the others before it (all of which I attended). While I really believe we are a better team across the board than ND, I know what can happen in the intangible department with this team. And i do predict we win, but my guess is the other 50+ something's are exactly where I am -- tight stomach and all! :D
 

1958againbear

1st Team
Jan 27, 2011
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a nod to the 40-, 50- and 60-somethings who still get a certain tightness in their stomachs at the mention of the year 1973.

Jess, I have always enjoyed your analyses but this one really summoned the ghosts you referenced in the quote above. Unlike many on this board I can't shake the demons from that game and the others before it (all of which I attended). While I really believe we are a better team across the board than ND, I know what can happen in the intangible department with this team. And i do predict we win, but my guess is the other 50+ something's are exactly where I am -- tight stomach and all! :D
You can say that again. But we were a terrible bowl team at that time. We aren't now and CNS is exceptional at keeping them focused. And this team has really earned their spot with 'never say die' fight and resiliency. I'm cautiously optimistic but there's still that tightness in my gut.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
 

DCETP

Scout Team
Sep 29, 2012
159
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0
Fantastic analysis as usual. I had earlier predicted a higher scoring game along the lines of 30-20 Bama. In light of Jess's analysis it's hard to see how the score will get as high as 30-20, unless turnovers are a factor. Both teams take care of the ball relatively well, but to be honest our RB's don't always hold onto the ball quite as well as we would like, and even AJ's interception-free streak has been history for several weeks now. If we can hold the LOS early on offense and establish the running game, it should open up the passing game and at that point ND will be toast, if we protect the ball. I see turnovers as the only thing that would give ND a shot at a win. If we win the turnover battle handily, and Bama gets a lopsided victory, it might actually set ND's program back a few years, and they might be wishing they hadn't even played in this game!
 

Ole Man Dan

Hall of Fame
Apr 21, 2008
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I still think the Irish haven't faced SEC speed yet. That one factor could make or break the game.
I see us as more of a 30- 10 winner.
Coach Saban has had a month to prepare for ND. and he usually has an idea what they will do.
I'm sure ND will put in some Offensive wrinkle for us.
Like everyone else we've played I expect ND Defense to try to stop the run. If AJ catches fire we can score quickly, but I'd much rather see us grind it out and wear them down.
We will have to protect the QB, but if we give him time, good things are likely to happen.
Yes... I've got on my Rose Colored Glasses again.
 
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JDCrimson

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Feb 12, 2006
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I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.
 
I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.
Yes quit worrying!
 

92tide

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I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.

well, on one of the halftime shows this week, lou was pretty much guaranteeing a win based on all of these historic factors which have absolutely no impact on this year's game. so maybe it just has something to do with being old ;)

the one i watched, mark may pretty much mopped the floor with lou on the game analysis and left him sputtering more than usual.
 

92tide

TideFans Legend
May 9, 2000
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Yes quit worrying!

well, at least for me, after the black-out game in athens, 2008, i quit worrying about whether or not bama would show up and compete in big games. after all of the stress and angst during the dubosefranchawnniepriceshula debacle, its quite a nice way to follow bama football.
 
well, at least for me, after the black-out game in athens, 2008, i quit worrying about whether or not bama would show up and compete in big games. after all of the stress and angst during the dubosefranchawnniepriceshula debacle, its quite a nice way to follow bama football.
Completely agree with you. We had our moments back then with those coaches, but CNS and his staff makes this so much better. I do worry myself, but this is fun.
 

Isaiah 63:1

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Dec 8, 2005
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I did a little digging into Jess' predictions this year, versus the actual results. What I found should make us feel pretty good.

Excluding the three non-BCS, box-of-chocolate opponents - Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina - Jess on average predicted a margin 10 points narrower than the actual margin, under-predicting our scoring by seven points per game, and over-predicting our opponents' scoring by three points per game. In only two games was there a negative variance between his prediction and the result: LSU, in which he predicted a seven-point Alabama win that turned out to be only four points (variance = -3); and TAMU, when he predicted a six-point win that turned out to be a five-point loss (variance = -11). Even throwing out the two biggest misses (+35 variance versus Arkansas and +25 versus Auburn), for the remaining eight games on average he nailed the opponents' scores and under-predicted ours by four points. Bottomline, Jess is almost an anti-homer.

Jess predicts a 10-point Alabama win. For Notre Dame to win by one point, Jess would have to have a variance of -11, equaling his worst of the year (TAMU). If you think Golson can replicate Manziel, that our defense has learned nothing since TAMU, and that we can be -3 in turnover margin, Notre Dame and 10 points is still a push; otherwise, based on results to date, you have to like the odds of an Alabama win.
 

jcabama

1st Team
Jul 19, 2004
499
243
62
Bonaire GA
I dont understand all the worry from the older generation about this game... I am not disrespecting ND but our record against them was in a different era of football completely - rules, player development, speed of the game, etc. Everything is different about CFB now and ND is just now catching up to it. Back in the day, it could be argued the best players were on the ND team - not now.

ND is a good team but we should win the game if we stay focused on our plan. We have more depth and experience so quit worrying.
We were the better team in 73. A fumble deep in Bama territory and a missed PAT along with gutsy play calling by ND was the difference. Turnovers are the great levelor for the underdogs so I'd say if we hold on to the ball on Monday night we'll be okay because again we are the better team.
 

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