If you're AJ, do you re-evaluate your draft status?

GulfCoastTider

Hall of Fame
I'm sorry. I love AJ and think the world of him and what he's done for Alabama. But he is not (currently) a first round draft pick. He is late second at the very best and probably mid third. There are too many better pro-style QB's in the 2013 draft with better measurables and better stats.

Nick Saban encourages juniors to evaluate their status after the regular season ends. He brings in consultants to help guys make the right decision, even telling them which teams are most likely to draft them and what round they'll be chosen. Depending on position, they are advised that if they have a reasonably good chance of being drafted in the first round by a good program, they should go pro. If they are projected to be second round picks or later, or if the consultants' evaluation of the likely NFL program is less than kind, they are encouraged to come back and improve their physical and mental preparation for the next level.

The "no more to prove" or "establishing a legacy" issues have almost no impact on that advice. At this point in their career, it's a business decision and nothing more.
 
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bamaslammer

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ND really gave little to no resistance to Alabama offensively. Don't get me wrong, he had a great game and I'm glad, but the same things that made him decide to come back are valid, he needs to get better at reading defenses and needs to be more consistent under duress. The NFL isn't a place you go to work on your game, you either got it or you're out of the league.
 

bamacon

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I would because of the current crop of qbs in this draft. It's weak. Period. Next year will see that crop getting a whole lot more full. I would not be the least bit surprised if he reconsiders. Hope he doesn't but couldn't blame him if he did.
 

CoolBreeze

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If I'm AJ I'm thinking...Holy moly, I'm having the time of my life - 2 time national championship winning QB with a chance at a 3rd at a university I love. I'm gonna stick around and use up all of my eligibility and shoot for history. Win or lose this will be the most amazing ride of my life.
 

GulfCoastTider

Hall of Fame
I know. I just said he might reconsider. Russell Wilson is doing pretty decent as a 3rd rounder.
The difference between Wilson and AJ couldn't be more stark. Wilson had no more eligibility left and he is a dual threat QB, which is all the rage now in the NFL. Teams are now looking first and Andrew Luck/Matt Barkley types and if they can't get one of those, they're going with Newtons, RG's and Russell Wilsons.

AJ would be foolish to come out early.
 

bamacon

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The difference between Wilson and AJ couldn't be more stark. Wilson had no more eligibility left and he is a dual threat QB, which is all the rage now in the NFL. Teams are now looking first and Andrew Luck/Matt Barkley types and if they can't get one of those, they're going with Newtons, RG's and Russell Wilsons.

AJ would be foolish to come out early.
Got it. Just answering the original question posed. I'd re-evaluate if I were AJ. I'd likely come to the same conclusion but the smart thing to so is to make sure you covered all your bases. That's all.
 

KrAzY3

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I know. I just said he might reconsider. Russell Wilson is doing pretty decent as a 3rd rounder.
Russell Wilson is 24 and as has been pointed out he didn't have more eligibility. Being a running type QB, he also has a plan b if things get out of hand, which helps a young QB. The flip side for Russell is if he could have waited one more year, he might have seen his stock go up more, he might have been a first rounder, and he might have had a bigger pay day.

But, this year you have to look at everything. Who needs a QB, who the top ranked college QBs are, etc... AJ stands to gain by staying one more year. If this was a running back, I think the conversation might be a bit different. Also, I have to throw this out, AJ could bulk up a bit more and the NFL wouldn't mind.
 

4Q Basket Case

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There is nothing left for AJ to do at Alabama. The smart move would be to enter the draft and get the money.
Have to respectfully disagree here. It's true that AJ has nothing to prove from a championship perspective.

What he does have left to prove is personal. I think he's coming back, not to win another championship (though he certainly may do that), but to improve his game and prepare for the NFL.
 

Power Eye

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I think I've said this before in regards to McCarron, but when I watch him I see alot of Matt Ryan in him. Ryan doesn't have the biggest arm and he wasn't thought to coming out of BC. Ryan was the third overall pick because he was very accurate, a proven winner and posessed the right intangibles. I am the furtherest thing from an NFL scout as possible, but my untrained eye does not see much of a difference between Ryan as an NFL draft pospect and McCarron. McCarron is probably coming back given that he has indicated as much, but this is a rather weak QB class in this year's draft and coming back doesn't always pan out (see Barkley and Mallett).
 

colbysullivan

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AJ is doing the right thing by staying IMO, but let's not forget a lot of NFL teams are just plain stupid when it comes to evaluating QB's. Tom Brady is a 6th round pick but Christian Ponder and Tim Tebow are 1st rounders....LOL
 

GulfCoastTider

Hall of Fame
I compare AJ to Eli all of the time. He has similar measurables, a similar style of play and a similar competitive attitude. When he exhausts his eligibility next season, I only hope he gets drafted by a program with a good offensive system like the Giants have. The Giants have a great offensive line and Eli has great receivers to throw to, plus a decent running game to complement his skills as a game manager.

I'd love to see him with the 49ers, Saints, Patriots, Ravens or any program that understands that an NFL quarterback is only as good as the rest of his offensive teammates.
 

chanson78

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Who are the quarterbacks that will be coming out next year that he would have to compete with?

Aaron Murray
Connor Shaw (Maybe)
Geno Smith (Not sure if he is staying)
Landry Jones (Not sure if he is staying after his horrible showing against A&M)
The guy from Clemson (Forget his name)

From my point of view, none of them have really lit it up this year (besides murray who is inconsistent and shaw who takes too much of a beating).
 

BamaHoosier

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Who are the quarterbacks that will be coming out next year that he would have to compete with?

Aaron Murray
Connor Shaw (Maybe)
Geno Smith (Not sure if he is staying)
Landry Jones (Not sure if he is staying after his horrible showing against A&M)
The guy from Clemson (Forget his name)

From my point of view, none of them have really lit it up this year (besides murray who is inconsistent and shaw who takes too much of a beating).
Conner Shaw is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the SEC. If he goes into the NFL, and that is a HUGE if, it will be an undrafted free agent. Geno Smith is gone after this year, and he will be taken as the top quarterback in this years draft. Landry Jones is a senior, so he has no eligibility left. Tahj Boyd will potentially be a 1st rounder since he is a mobile quarterback, but I really don't see Murray being a huge threat. Murray is to inconsistent, and if anything he will be a late 1st rounder.

I would expect that Braxton Miller of Ohio State, Jordan Lynch out of NIU, Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville, and Logan Thomas out of VaTech will be some of the hottest names going into next season as the players to watchout for. Also, there will probably be several more that will pop up from smaller schools like Mike Glennon has out of NCSt this year. I'm thinking that AJ might be the first quarterback taken in the draft next year barring a superman season out of Miller, as well as a potential Heisman front runner for the upcoming season. In my opinion it would behoove him to come back for his final season.
 

chanson78

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Thanks for clearing that up. Still tired from last night, and with a new baby in the house I'm a bit foggy.

I had forgotten about bridgewater. That guy is impressive as heck.
 

colbysullivan

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Conner Shaw is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the SEC. If he goes into the NFL, and that is a HUGE if, it will be an undrafted free agent. Geno Smith is gone after this year, and he will be taken as the top quarterback in this years draft. Landry Jones is a senior, so he has no eligibility left. Tahj Boyd will potentially be a 1st rounder since he is a mobile quarterback, but I really don't see Murray being a huge threat. Murray is to inconsistent, and if anything he will be a late 1st rounder.

I would expect that Braxton Miller of Ohio State, Jordan Lynch out of NIU, Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville, and Logan Thomas out of VaTech will be some of the hottest names going into next season as the players to watchout for. Also, there will probably be several more that will pop up from smaller schools like Mike Glennon has out of NCSt this year. I'm thinking that AJ might be the first quarterback taken in the draft next year barring a superman season out of Miller, as well as a potential Heisman front runner for the upcoming season. In my opinion it would behoove him to come back for his final season.
yeah....at Tight End

Also, let's not forget about Manziel. He's a redshirt, so he can leave after the 2013 season. With dual-threat QB's being all the rage in the NFL right now, you never know.
 

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