Bama has been ranked #1 5 of the last 6 years on Rivals.com

bamafaninOhiO

All-American
May 11, 2010
2,114
0
0
Dayton, Ohio
the year we werent 1st, we were like 3rd I think....3rd would be considered awesome by almost any program in the country, but to oru fans, it caused a slight panic about what was happening to the football program...why cant we get the recruits, how did 2 teams beat us to the top.
:)
 

colbysullivan

Hall of Fame
Dec 12, 2007
16,692
13,591
187
Gulf Breeze, FL
the year we werent 1st, we were like 3rd I think....3rd would be considered awesome by almost any program in the country, but to oru fans, it caused a slight panic about what was happening to the football program...why cant we get the recruits, how did 2 teams beat us to the top.
:)
Interesting that we lost 3 games that year. Then again, we finished #1 in 2008 and lost 2 games that year too.
 

bamafaninOhiO

All-American
May 11, 2010
2,114
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Dayton, Ohio
Interesting that we lost 3 games that year. Then again, we finished #1 in 2008 and lost 2 games that year too.
Interesting, but keep in mind that they didnt play in their first season for the most part...they should have had their biggest impact on this season.

focus seemed to be the problem with the 2010 season, not talent.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
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Tuscaloosa
the majority of those Rivals #1 ranked classes have gone on to win the NC.

there is definitely a correlation between winning the recruiting title and the National Title.
I pointed this out in early 2008. Rivals' #1 class almost always goes on to win a national title. I think USC 2006 and one of those Florida State #1 classes are the only exceptions.
 

rammerjammer69

Scout Team
Apr 28, 2009
188
0
0
On Rivals we are #1 for '08, '09, '11, '12, '13 with '10 being #5.

Three #1 classes in a row is just astounding. 5 of 6 is unheard of. USC had two in a row during their run but what we have done is unprecedented.
 

runatl

Suspended
Dec 5, 2011
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Not just the those kids.

I was in freaking 8th grade 7 years ago. OMG. I was shorter than 80% of the girls in my school. Was a terrible basketball player. Chasing girls and having no success.

How things change (except for the last one)!
 

sanjosecrimson

Hall of Fame
May 18, 2007
5,838
3,839
187
San Jose, California
On Rivals we are #1 for '08, '09, '11, '12, '13 with '10 being #5.

Three #1 classes in a row is just astounding. 5 of 6 is unheard of. USC had two in a row during their run but what we have done is unprecedented.
usc commits were literally over rated and highly ranked due to their level of competition.
I would wager that if most of those west coast/ sol cal kids were playing in the Southeast, their rankings would be alter. Trust me, I'm from Cali.:cool:
 
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rgw

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Sep 15, 2003
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Tuscaloosa
2002 Texas - 1 title (2005)
2003 LSU - 2 titles (2003, 2007)
2004 USC - 1 title (2004)
2005 USC - 0 titles
2006 USC - 0 titles
2007 Florida - 1 title (2008)
2008 Alabama - 3 titles (2009, 2011, 2012)
2009 Alabama - 3 titles* (same as above)
2010 USC - 0 titles*
2011 Alabama - 2 titles* (2011, 2012)
2012 Alabama - 1 title* (2012)

* Class still has players with eligibility.

So there is a remote chance USC can add to the numbers with their 2010 class, but the 2005-2006 USC classes were the only rivals #1 not to produce a champion. I'd argue Florida's 2006 class was better from the outset but rivals.com didn't make that decision. Either way, USC had some tough luck on the backend of Carroll's run. They had a few seasons like our 2011-2012 repeat but the PAC-10 was weaker perception-wise.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
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Tuscaloosa
Furthermore, I have to admire rivals.com's relative accuracy. 2010 was the only one not to be ranked #1 and it is without a doubt one of the weaker classes since we've gotten rolling. With that said, it's weak by comparison. Most schools would love to get a class with 5-7 NFL draft quality players.

The academic losses in that class hurt: we never got Alfy Hill, Belue didn't arrive until 2012 with a JUCO detour. There were a few immediate busts too. Also, injuries have held back two of the highest rated guys in the class (Arie K and Jarrick Williams). Add in a collection of near misses at several positions and you have a relatively speaking underperforming class.
 

TiderJack

Hall of Fame
Jul 9, 2010
12,224
6,249
187
Inverness, AL
2002 Texas - 1 title (2005)
2003 LSU - 2 titles (2003, 2007)
2004 USC - 1 title (2004)
2005 USC - 0 titles
2006 USC - 0 titles
2007 Florida - 1 title (2008)
2008 Alabama - 3 titles (2009, 2011, 2012)
2009 Alabama - 3 titles* (same as above)
2010 USC - 0 titles*
2011 Alabama - 2 titles* (2011, 2012)
2012 Alabama - 1 title* (2012)

* Class still has players with eligibility.

So there is a remote chance USC can add to the numbers with their 2010 class, but the 2005-2006 USC classes were the only rivals #1 not to produce a champion. I'd argue Florida's 2006 class was better from the outset but rivals.com didn't make that decision. Either way, USC had some tough luck on the backend of Carroll's run. They had a few seasons like our 2011-2012 repeat but the PAC-10 was weaker perception-wise.
Some people seem to think the rankings are useless due to the occasional 2* or 3* star that turns into a superstar or the 5* that turns out to be a bust but I think the team rankings in the past decade proves there is a big time correlation in recruiting success and winning as some have already stated. To those who say that I will put my 4* and 5* players out on the field and play you anytime.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
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Tuscaloosa
Some people seem to think the rankings are useless due to the occasional 2* or 3* star that turns into a superstar or the 5* that turns out to be a bust but I think the team rankings in the past decade proves there is a big time correlation in recruiting success and winning as some have already stated. To those who say that I will put my 4* and 5* players out on the field and play you anytime.
That is a pretty common mistake humans make in regards to statistical information. We don't naturally have a good complex mathematical understanding beyond basic number line concepts. When presented with large data, we tend to pay too much credence to outlier cases and not enough on the larger trends. Highly though of recruits not panning out makes the news, underrated recruits exceeding their expectations makes a narrative, but the vast majority of players who perform in line with their expectations is not reported.

The book Freakanomics does a great job of explaining this problem highlighting the fear of accidental discharge of a weapon by children. In this country, there is a several orders of magnitude difference between the child deaths by accidental discharge than home pool drownings. The public outcry is clearly more slanted towards weapon locks and not towards proper gating and locks around pools.

Similarly, every Johnny Manziel gets propped up as the plucky guy major schools scoffed at playing QB. Every 5-star that transfers within a few years gets a headline. Guys like Dee Milliner, Rolando McClain, Barrett Jones, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Dont'a Hightower, DJ Fluker, Cyrus Koundijio, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper, HaHa Clinton-Dix, AJ McCarron, Nico Johnson, Eddie Lacy, and Mark Barron aren't used as reminders that the services get it right more often than not. They use Burton Scott, Travell Dixon, Alonzo Lawrence, Tyler Love, and Brett Calloway as proof positive that recruiting services can't get it right.

Each of our highly ranked busts usually had some signs before hand. Burton Scott was always more of an athlete who didn't have a solid grip on a long-term position. He flopped as a receiver, struggled as a corner, and transferred. Zo Lawrence really just leaped up the rankings in December through January due to All-Star games but there were decently well-known concerns about his ability to handle the college classroom and absorb a complex playbook. Tyler Love spent most of his career injured. Brett Calloway was always thought to be a little too stiff to play tailback at the SEC level of competition...probably a lot like Burton Scott: a great deal of athleticism but no defined position in a more specialized college game. We also have some highly rated prospects who just got stuck behind other exceptionally talented players. Tana Patrick and Jonathan Atchinson come to mind in that regard.
 
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GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
0
0
TN
Some people seem to think the rankings are useless due to the occasional 2* or 3* star that turns into a superstar or the 5* that turns out to be a bust but I think the team rankings in the past decade proves there is a big time correlation in recruiting success and winning as some have already stated. To those who say that I will put my 4* and 5* players out on the field and play you anytime.
people take star ratings as predictions of individual success, which, in a way, they are. But, their best predictive value is that a group of four stars is expected to be better than a group of three stars.
its like someone saying I know an art major who makes twice as much as another guy who was a Pre-Law, therefore, college major has no bearing on income. But, of course, if you have a group of 20 Pre-Law students, they will almost certainly have higher incomes than a group of 20 art majors on average.
 

RJ YellowHammer

Hall of Fame
Sep 1, 2009
7,117
32
67
Memphis, Tn
people take star ratings as predictions of individual success, which, in a way, they are. But, their best predictive value is that a group of four stars is expected to be better than a group of three stars.
its like someone saying I know an art major who makes twice as much as another guy who was a Pre-Law, therefore, college major has no bearing on income. But, of course, if you have a group of 20 Pre-Law students, they will almost certainly have higher incomes than a group of 20 art majors on average.
You're exactly right. Recruiting projections and star rankings are just predictions, relatively educated predictions, but predictions none the less. There is a range for success and failure and there are outliers within that range for individual players, but if CNS and staff keep signing number 1 classes we'll still end up generally more talented than the teams we're playing against overall. It almost boils down to just a numbers game.
 

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