Pick the score: LSU vs. Alabama

Gut feeling
LSU is always a tough out, and even in the 21-0 championship "mauling," our offense struggled, especially on 3rd down in LSU territory, kicking 5 field goals before scoring a late TD. But this LSU team is not as good as the ones we are used to seeing, while this Bama team seems like it might be. LSU is always up for Bama, but we will be up for them too. Mettenberger may cause some of us to dogcuss the secondary, but unless we gift wrap the game for them, which I believe is unlikely, we move on to 9-0, in a game that is close until the 4th quarter, when we add some insurance scores.


Stats
Alabama is scoring 148% of opponents' average points allowed, while giving up 29% of opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 5.03, which is 1st in the nation.
LSU is scoring 143% of opponents' average points allowed, while giving up 82% of opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 1.76, which is 21st in the nation.

Projected score:
Alabama 33
LSU 14
How dare you use logic to come up with your answer?!? Lol

I like what you say here.


Sent from my iPhone
 

bamafaninOhiO

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I decided to start this a little early due to the fact we had a bye. Anyway, my heart thinks this one won't be close, but my head thinks it will be closer than I think. I see we are an 11 pt. favorite at home which sounds about right. LSU has probably the best offense since we faced AM, but I think Bama rolls. They gave up 44 in their loss to Georgia. I don't think we will score in the 40's.

Bama wins 27-17
I'll be shocked if we dont score in the 30's.

Bama -34
LSU-17
 

BamaBrass

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30-20 TIDE. BAMA comes out firing, up 24-10 at half. We lose a bit of focus in 3rd quarter but put the nail in the coffin with two short FGs in the 4th.
 
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ALA2262

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30-20 TIDE. BAMA comes out firing, up 24-10 at half. We lose a bit of focus in 3rd quarter but put the nail in the coffin with two short FGs in the 4th.
24 at the half is fine just as long as it should not have been 42 as in the last game at BDS in 2010. Leaving those 18 points on the table was an omen of things to come.
 

Bamabuzzard

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This is the problem with a Les Miles coached team. Up and down, up and down never know which team will show up. My gut tells me it is going to be a barn burner much like the aTm game. They have the talent on offense to run with us no doubt. I just don't see their defense being able to make as many stops on our offense as our defense can on their's.

I'm going with 38-24 with Bama pulling away in fourth quarter.
 

TideEngineer08

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I wish I shared the same feelings as you all on the blowout scores.

LSU has a lot of offensive firepower and while our defense has improved by leaps and bounds since A&M, I'm not certain our secondary is as settled as it needs to be. Losing Vinny really hurts in a game like this too. Plus there is the Les Miles factor as has already been mentioned. Doesn't matter how uneven LSU looks all year long, they will always play their best against Alabama (unless the game is in New Orleans).

If we can shut down or slow down their running game with Hill, we'll be well on our way to a win. Also, don't turn the ball over. Our offense ought to be able to put up the points as long as we don't turn it over (ball security, RBs!)

Score? 31-21. It's going to be a hard fought game.
 

Bamabuzzard

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I wish I shared the same feelings as you all on the blowout scores.

LSU has a lot of offensive firepower and while our defense has improved by leaps and bounds since A&M, I'm not certain our secondary is as settled as it needs to be. Losing Vinny really hurts in a game like this too. Plus there is the Les Miles factor as has already been mentioned. Doesn't matter how uneven LSU looks all year long, they will always play their best against Alabama (unless the game is in New Orleans).

If we can shut down or slow down their running game with Hill, we'll be well on our way to a win. Also, don't turn the ball over. Our offense ought to be able to put up the points as long as we don't turn it over (ball security, RBs!)

Score? 31-21. It's going to be a hard fought game.
I agree. It will be a hard fought game. Lost in the LSU passing game is Jeremy Hill. He's a beast and we have to be sure to not allow him to bust loose. If he does then their passing game becomes that much harder to stop.
 

bamafan_bdb

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I wish I shared the optimism of some, but I just don't see us winning big. I think they're passing game matches up really well against our DBs, as most people seem to recognize. In fact, I think they have a greater advantage there than they did last year. Yes, Mett played his best game of the year last year, but it seems that last year's performance in that game has become an almost weekly performance this year (OM game notwithstanding). And the wide receivers are better and more seasoned. A 2013-level performance from them will put a terrific strain on our defense.

Now, of course, we can move the ball on them, especially through the air. Our WRs match up just as well against their DBs as theirs do against ours. So, it seems to be a question of who can run the ball better, control the line, play special teams well, get a key turnover, etc. In other words, I think this will be a close game like almost all our others against them. And we win, barely.

Bama 28 LSU 27
 

uafan4life

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I'll reference a couple of my posts from other threads:

I want to be worried about the LSU game, I really do.

I just can't.

Having watched both teams over the past few weeks leaves me with only one conclusion: barring some catastrophic set of circumstances involving injuries and/or illness among the Bama starters, there is no reason that we should lose to LSU.



Now, I'm not saying that LSU isn't a good team, can't give us a run for our money, and will be an easy win; I do, however, think that we're going to make it look easy.

We match up very well with LSU this year - especially considering how they've been playing the past few weeks. Yes, perhaps they have been looking forward to the Bama game for weeks and over-looking their opponents but they have a few issues that are fundamental and/or personnel problems that don't get fixed overnight.


Here are three defensive category rankings for LSU and Bama, only taking into account SEC Conference games:

Defensive Category Rankings vs Conference Opponents
LSUAlabama
Avg. / GameConference RankAvg. / GameConference Rank
Rushing Defense (YPR)4.418th3.772nd
Passing Eff. Defense131.95th113.062nd
Scoring Defense (PPG)24.85th11.81st


Unlike recent years, there's a significant difference between the two. Of course, even this doesn't fully take into account the level of competition each team has faced, since both teams have only played five conference games. So, let's look at what each defense has done in conference play relative to what their SEC opponents have averaged in conference play.

Defensive Category Differential Stats vs Conference Opponents
LSU DefenseLSU Opponents' OffenseDifferential
Rushing (YPR)4.414.380.03
Passing Efficiency131.9134.29-2.39
Scoring (PPG)24.827.2-2.4
Alabama DefenseAlabama Opponents' OffenseDifferential
Rushing (YPR)3.774.38-0.61
Passing Efficiency113.06122.43-9.37
Scoring (PPG)11.823.8-12


While LSU has faced slightly better offenses in regard to Yards per Rush and Passing Efficiency than has Alabama, the Crimson Tide Defense has fared significantly better than LSU's against their opponents - relative to what their opponents are averaging in conference play. Amazingly enough, both Alabama's and LSU's opponents have collectively averaged exactly 4.38 Yards per Rush on the season - that wasn't a typo or copy and paste error. :)However, just like the other two stats, the Crimson Tide Defense has fared much better than LSU's - this time playing against virtually identical levels of offensive rushing prowess.


Ok, so what about the offenses?


Offensive Category Rankings vs Conference Opponents
LSUAlabama
Avg. / GameConference RankAvg. / GameConference Rank
Rushing Offense (YPR)4.239th6.891st
Passing Eff. Offense157.923rd164.022nd
Scoring Offense (PPG)35.24th43.82nd


Offensive Category Differential Stats vs Conference Opponents
LSU OffenseLSU Opponents' DefenseDifferential
Rushing (YPR)4.234.37-0.14
Passing Efficiency157.92132.1925.73
Scoring (PPG)35.229.55.7
Alabama OffenseAlabama Opponents' DefenseDifferential
Rushing (YPR)6.895.221.67
Passing Efficiency164.02152.0212.00
Scoring (PPG)43.836.07.8




As you can see, LSU has faced noticeably better defenses than has Alabama. However, the differentials tell an interesting story. First, you'll see that LSU wins its first - and only - differential comparison with Alabama in the way of Passing Efficiency Offense, as the Tigers have performed significantly better than the Tide in this differential. Second, you'll see that while both teams have significant scoring differentials, Alabama has fared a little bit better than LSU in that category. Finally, you'll notice that Alabama's Rushing (Yards per Rush) differential is excellent while LSU's is actually negative - putting LSU's Rushing Offense firmly in the bottom half of the SEC.


Of course, there are a few things to consider when looking at these offensive stats. First, in Alabama's closest conference tilt the Tide netted its highest Passing Efficiency Rating and its second highest Scoring Total (though netting its second "worst" Rushing performance at 6.32 yards per rush) in conference play - a win against Texas A&M. In addition, every other SEC game the Tide has played in has been a blowout win for Alabama. While blowout wins for many teams equals padded stats, for Alabama - as we all know - this usually means taking their foot off the pedal. Meanwhile, only one LSU conference tilt could potentially be considered a blowout - their 59-26 win over Mississippi State - although even that game yielded only a 31-26 lead for LSU going into the 4th Quarter. While this does mean that LSU has been tested more often in conference play than has Alabama, it is worth noting that Alabama won its only closely contested game while LSU lost two out of its three most closely contested games.


Add to all of this the facts that:
1) Alabama's Special Teams - for the first time in recent memory - is performing significantly better than LSU's,
2) Alabama's Time of Possession is better than LSU's,
3) Alabama's Turnover Margin is better than LSU's,
4) the 'Eye-Test' tells you that Alabama has been improving significantly as the season has progressed while telling you that LSU has seemingly been trending downward as the season has progressed, and
5) against their only common opponent - Ole Miss - the Tigers lost on the road while the Tide blew them out at home...

And the signs all point to a big Bama win over LSU.

On Offense: AJ McCarron

I've got a sneaking suspicion that this is going to be "AJ's Game" - the one that everyone looks back on as being his best game, his biggest statement. I think that he'll be sharp from the get-go and will spread the ball around, getting seven or eight different players the ball through the air, leaving LSU unable to key on anyone down-field. As a result, I don't think any of the receivers or even backs will have a huge stat game although the offense as a whole will have a very huge stat game.

I'm looking for a stat line for AJ that looks something like:
22 of 27 for 372 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs.

The offense gets the ball first and marches down the field, thanks to a couple of big 3rd and long conversions by AJ, and scores a touchdown despite only gaining 8 yards rushing on the drive due to LSU keying on stopping the run.

On LSU's first drive, a big play by Mosley or HaHa stops LSU on 3rd down to force a three-and-out and a punt, which Jones returns to midfield.

On the Tide's second possession - after a five yard, nothing-but-effort run by Yeldon on first down - AJ executes one of his trademark play-action fakes and hits White, Cooper, Norwood, or Bell for a 45 yard TD pass to make it 14-0 only six minutes into the game.

LSU starts to press on offense and Mettenberger makes more than a few mistakes - mostly missed reads but also some bad throws - which results in several very short drives and 4 interceptions for the game.

AJ gets named the SEC Offensive Player of the Week and begins to get some serious - and long overdue - Heisman consideration.



On Defense: CJ Mosley, HaHa Clinton-Dix, Landon Collins.

With LSU getting down big early and having to, at least somewhat, abandon their offensive game-plan - trying to air it out in order to keep up with Bama - the Crimson Tide Defense ends up with three "stars" for the game. Mosley leads the team in tackles, has two or three tackles for loss, grabs an interception, and forces a fumble. Clinton-Dix and Collins reap the benefits of Mettenberger's mistakes, with HaHa getting two INTs - one a pick-six - to go with a number of tackles and passes broken up while Collins gets one interception, a handful of tackles, a couple of PBUs, and a recovery of the fumble that CJ caused.

Mosley ends up being named the SEC Defensive Player of the Week - with his only real competition coming from his own teammates. :)



In case you can't tell, I'm picking this game to be the first real blowout in a while in this series - with Bama rolling over LSU by a score of 52 to 13.
:biggrin2:


So, just to reiterate, I'm picking:

Bama 52
LSU 13

Roll Tide Roll!
:biggrin2:
 

Vinny

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I have never witnessed Alabama beat LSU in person and I am going to be sitting with my boss and some of his friends.
Alabama 36
LSU 21
 

FitToBeTide

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i think we pitch another shut out while scoring a lot of points
Pitching a shutout delivers more bang for the buck than any other way of winning the game. IF it's to be a close game, then another helping of 21 us - 0 tigahs, please sir. Maybe 7-0 at half, 14-0 end of third, 21-0 at the whistle.
 

jabcmb

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Favored by 11, win by five: 32-27 and happy about it. This game could easily be back and forth like the SEC Championship against Georgia last year.
 

92tide

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I wish I shared the optimism of some, but I just don't see us winning big. I think they're passing game matches up really well against our DBs, as most people seem to recognize. In fact, I think they have a greater advantage there than they did last year. Yes, Mett played his best game of the year last year, but it seems that last year's performance in that game has become an almost weekly performance this year (OM game notwithstanding). And the wide receivers are better and more seasoned. A 2013-level performance from them will put a terrific strain on our defense.

Now, of course, we can move the ball on them, especially through the air. Our WRs match up just as well against their DBs as theirs do against ours. So, it seems to be a question of who can run the ball better, control the line, play special teams well, get a key turnover, etc. In other words, I think this will be a close game like almost all our others against them. And we win, barely.

Bama 28 LSU 27
all due respect, but a 2013 performance by us will put a terrific strain on their entire game plan. :)
 

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