Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever" - Page 5
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  1. #53
    BamaNation Hall of Fame cbi1972's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by cuda.1973 View Post
    We can't predict tomorrow's weather, but we can use the same models to predict what will happen 100 years in the future. Right.
    The models used to predict a trend are not the same models used to predict a short term result.
    Predicting the result of a series of coin flips involves simple probability, and gets more accurate the bigger the sample size.
    Predicting the result of a single coin flip with any degree of accuracy would involve analysis of a lot of factors that average out over the long term.

    Similarly, I could not tell you what Alabama's first play from scrimmage will be when we play Middle Tennessee, but I bet we win the game.
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  2. #54
    BamaNation Hall of Fame RedStar's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by AUDub View Post
    Why bother? It'll just trigger another silly one of these never ending debates.

    Every satellite is frequently being adjusted. When this Paul Homewood has a problem with the datasets of two weather stations why is he not discussing this in the scientific literature, where such debates are supposed to take place?

    This retired accountant cobbled some nonsense together and, like always, Booker and the denialist blogs are on the hook. Looks like you have found your big conspiracy.
    What's silly is when guys like you and Bamaro start spouting off facts like you actually studied climatology. What makes you qualified to talk about this? Would you tell a heart surgeon how to replace a heart?

  3. #55
    FB Moderator Bamabuzzard's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedStar View Post
    What's silly is when guys like you and Bamaro start spouting off facts like you actually studied climatology. What makes you qualified to talk about this? Would you tell a heart surgeon how to replace a heart?
    They voted for Obama.



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  4. #56
    BamaNation All-American PacadermaTideUs's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    The models used to predict a trend are not the same models used to predict a short term result.
    This is correct.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    Predicting the result of a series of coin flips involves simple probability, and gets more accurate the bigger the sample size.
    Predicting the result of a single coin flip with any degree of accuracy would involve analysis of a lot of factors that average out over the long term.
    The difference of course, is that in a series of coin flips, each individual flip is an independent event. The outcome of previous flips has no bearing whatsoever on future flips. Consequently, over time, average probabilities are borne out by the increasingly large data set so that long-term predictions become more accurate.

    With both weather and climate modeling, future conditions are 100% dependent on previous conditions, which are modified according to the models' algorithms before being fed back into the model as new input. Consequently, errors are magnified over time by both real-world environmental feedback and model-induced feedback, such that long-term predictions become less accurate.

    Yes - the butterfly effect. But not just the butterfly in the real world - also the algorithmic butterflies.

    <EDIT>Also, in your coin flip analogy, we know the probabilities beforehand. We know that the coin is 50% likely to land on heads and 50% likely to land on tails. So a long term prediction of 10,000 flips will be more accurate than a short term prediction of 10 flips. With weather and climate modeling, we don't know the probabilities beforehand. The probabilities are in fact what we're predicting: 30% probability of rain or 70% likelihood of warmer temperatures. So a long term prediction of the probability will not be confirmed simply because we've added more data points. In fact, because the climate will be impacted by the feedback mechanisms discussed above, it is far more likely that our short term prediction of a probability will have more accuracy than the long term prediction.</EDIT>

    Still, your point about climate models being different than weather models is accurate. Climate models are engineered for lower resolution in almost every way - lower spacial resolution, lower temporal resolution, fewer independent meteorological parameters. In this way, modelers hope to limit the opportunity for compounding the errors (discussed above - and there are always errors to compound) in order to push the time horizon much further down the road so that they can make a guess at what general conditions will look like say 10, 50, 100 years from now without the output getting swamped by the feedback.

    Weather models predict specifics for tomorrow. Climate models predict generalities for next decade. That's the difference. And there's no statistical evidence suggesting increasing accuracy over the long haul, as your inaccurate coin flip analogy suggests. To the contrary, every point of evidence indicates rapidly decreasing accuracy over increasing iterations (and consequently feedback).
    Last edited by PacadermaTideUs; February 19th, 2015 at 02:01 PM.

  5. #57
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Erudite post Paca. Ever thought about being a weather man?

  6. #58
    BamaNation All-American PacadermaTideUs's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    Erudite post Paca. Ever thought about being a weather man?
    Thank you Sir. Not sure if that's tongue in cheek or not - maybe you didn't know that that's what I did for a living for almost 22 yrs.

  7. #59
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by PacadermaTideUs View Post
    Thank you Sir. Not sure if that's tongue in cheek or not - maybe you didn't know that that's what I did for a living for almost 22 yrs.
    I do indeed remember. USAF's finest you were.

    Or was that you prognosticating for Ike on 6 June 1944?
    Last edited by seebell; February 19th, 2015 at 05:48 PM.

  8. #60
    BamaNation All-American PacadermaTideUs's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    I do indeed remember. USAF's finest you were.

    Or was that you prognosticating for Ike on 6 June 1944?
    I was but a twinkle in my father's infantile eye.

  9. #61
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Al A Bama's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    That global warming is sure hurting the Northeast USA as we speak.
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  10. #62
    BamaNation Hall of Fame AUDub's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedStar View Post
    What's silly is when guys like you and Bamaro start spouting off facts like you actually studied climatology. What makes you qualified to talk about this? Would you tell a heart surgeon how to replace a heart?
    I've made no claim of expertise on the matter, though I'm glad you acknowledge what Bamaro and I say as fact. Thanks for that. Made my day.
    Just a barner.

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  11. #63
    BamaNation Hall of Fame AUDub's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by Bamabuzzard View Post
    They voted for Obama.



    This may surprise you, but I did not. In fact, I generally vote third party for ballot access reasons.
    Just a barner.

    #bluebloodbath

  12. #64
    BamaNation Hall of Fame AUDub's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by Al A Bama View Post
    That global warming is sure hurting the Northeast USA as we speak.
    But if it's only freaking cold locally, it's not exactly "global."

    It it was actually a relatively cool year in Alabama last year. Good thing, too. The AC in my car hasn't worked since April and I'm too cheap to get it fixed.
    Last edited by AUDub; February 20th, 2015 at 09:32 PM.
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  13. #65
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: Paper; Global Warming "The Biggest Science Scandal Ever"

    Quote Originally Posted by cbi1972 View Post
    Similarly, I could not tell you what Alabama's first play from scrimmage will be when we play Middle Tennessee, but I bet we win the game.
    The flaw here is that it is BY NO MEANS even close to a guarantee that we win the game.

    Which makes the prediction nothing more than a prediction. And if you're wrong, well, you made billions in the process.

    Did ANYBODY think App State was going to beat Michigan?

    ALL of the "climate predictors" would have suggested Michigan would win even if only by one point. ALL of them would have been wrong. And let's assume the later rumor of "our whole team got high" was true. Well, that's an unaccounted for variable now, isn't it?

    What irks me (as always) about the whole thing is the assumption in most of the arguments that there are only TWO positions - that one is either an advocate of saving the planet or a "climate denier." As I've long said, the SCIENCE (on paper) proved that AIDS was going to wipe out huge chunks of the US population. Those of us IN THE LAB (who, you know, actually knew a little something about epidemiology of disease) who pointed out WHY this would NEVER happen (namely, an epidemic mandates a duplication, a 1:1 transfer or it will obviously die out when the hosts die) were all called "science deniers," and the only thing we were denying was the POLITICS of the whole thing - because the politics was based on a predictive farce on paper.

    And I'll be blunt - if you're going to demand billions of dollars to buy what you're selling, you ought to actually KNOW what you're selling. To ask us to fork over big money to "solve" a problem that you're not even sure: a) you know what is "really" caused by and b) you have no earthly (pardon the pun) idea that CAN be fixed - I'm sorry, but that's as stupid as declaring war on Iraq (which I opposed, too).

    Keep in mind at NO POINT have I "denied" that the planet "has shown warming" over "the past century." Of course, I also read between the lines and when you tell me that "current trends" show a 1.2 degree increase over a decade and it "only" increased half of that.......well, that tells me your predictor is maybe half accurate.
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