Declassified US intelligence report from 1990 is terrifying...
- Thread starter crimsonaudio
- Start date
Even before the end of the article, I was thinking that it was a damned good thing that we didn't realize what they were doing and respond...
That is the problem with intelligence and separating enemy capabilities from intentions.
If your enemy has the capability to do something (i.e. a nuclear first strike, a convention invasion of West Germany, etc.), he may be intending to do it.
If he does not have the capability to do that thing, then he obviously does not have the intention of doing it (unless he does have the capability and but has successfully kept it from you, a la Doctor Strangelove).
Realists tend to look at capabilities.
Idealists tend to look at intentions.
If your enemy has the capability to do something (i.e. a nuclear first strike, a convention invasion of West Germany, etc.), he may be intending to do it.
If he does not have the capability to do that thing, then he obviously does not have the intention of doing it (unless he does have the capability and but has successfully kept it from you, a la Doctor Strangelove).
Realists tend to look at capabilities.
Idealists tend to look at intentions.
I was under the impression that this had before been pretty well documented and that we were saved from a first-strike false alarm by a Soviet Lt Col named Petrov when sunlight reflecting off of clouds set of satellite sensors. All told, there were at least 4-5 incidents from October of 1962 through about 1983 that nearly resulted in full scale nuclear war but that was prevented only by some very cool heads and sheer luck.
You have to remember contextually that the relations between the 2 countries were at a nadir in late 1983 after the Soviets took down KAL 007. Also about that time were the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon and the Grenada invasion. I lived in Germany in 1983 and that fall all the military bases were engaged in readiness "exercises." I also recall the Bundestag voting to allow deployment of US missiles in November 1983. It's weird being 14 and watching trucks go by with missile things loaded on the back and imagining what might happen because the 2 most recent movies you've seen are "War Games" and "Superman III," both focused on nuclear conflict.
That was a chilling read. Thank God for some missteps by our generals for not recognizing the Soviet response and potentially escalating things by increasing our DEFCON. Ugh.
This is a lot like the difference between economic demand and desire.
Demand means you can pay for it. Desire just means you want it.
and if Hillary gets in and something happens, there'll be a bunch of dead people before anything gets done...not sure about Bernie...
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