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Do we need to re-think NATO?

Tidewater

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Displaced Bama Fan said:
I've said this before, but I think eventually Russia takes back Donestk and Luhansk as well as Odessa and the remaining southern provinces to 1) land lock Ukraine and 2) have a land route to Crimea and Moldova.
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I do not know. If Putin lops off the Russian-heavy portions of Ukraine it would be like lopping off two feet of a teeter-totter, what is left would tilt heavily in the opposite direction (towards Europe and against Russia). I believe this is what has kept Putin from annexing Donetsk and Lugansk. What would be left of Ukraine would be very anti-Russian. Instead, Putin has opted to support keeping Donetsk and Lugansk within Ukraine, but with some form of autonomy. Putin does not have to pay for Donetsk and Lugansk and ethnic Russians in those oblasts get to vote in Ukrainian elections, which will help keep Ukraine from tilting in the anti-Russian direction.
 
Displaced Bama Fan

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Tidewater said:
I do not know. If Putin lops off the Russian-heavy portions of Ukraine it would be like lopping off two feet of a teeter-totter, what is left would tilt heavily in the opposite direction (towards Europe and against Russia). I believe this is what has kept Putin from annexing Donetsk and Lugansk. What would be left of Ukraine would be very anti-Russian. Instead, Putin has opted to support keeping Donetsk and Lugansk within Ukraine, but with some form of autonomy. Putin does not have to pay for Donetsk and Lugansk and ethnic Russians in those oblasts get to vote in Ukrainian elections, which will help keep Ukraine from tilting in the anti-Russian direction.
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Interesting take...makes sense.
 
Tidewater

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81usaf92 said:
I think it would've passed even if there was no NATO and Russian pressures if it was put to a vote.

http://www.businessinsider.com/crimea-demographics-chart-2014-3
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Maybe. Two of my colleagues are ethnic Russians from Crimea. Neither supports Russian annexation, and both were informed before the vote that their presence in Crimea was not welcome, so they did not/were not allowed to vote.
I draw two conclusions from that:
1. Not every ethnic Russian wanted annexation.
2. Voter intimidation, especially of the "unreliable," occurred.
 
TIDE-HSV

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Tidewater said:
I do not know. If Putin lops off the Russian-heavy portions of Ukraine it would be like lopping off two feet of a teeter-totter, what is left would tilt heavily in the opposite direction (towards Europe and against Russia). I believe this is what has kept Putin from annexing Donetsk and Lugansk. What would be left of Ukraine would be very anti-Russian. Instead, Putin has opted to support keeping Donetsk and Lugansk within Ukraine, but with some form of autonomy. Putin does not have to pay for Donetsk and Lugansk and ethnic Russians in those oblasts get to vote in Ukrainian elections, which will help keep Ukraine from tilting in the anti-Russian direction.
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I think that nails it and I've thought it for quite a while now. Why should he proceed to annexation? There's just no good reason and, if he'd wanted, he would have done it a long time ago...
 
81usaf92

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Tidewater said:
Maybe. Two of my colleagues are ethnic Russians from Crimea. Neither supports Russian annexation, and both were informed before the vote that their presence in Crimea was not welcome, so they did not/were not allowed to vote.
I draw two conclusions from that:
1. Not every ethnic Russian wanted annexation.
2. Voter intimidation, especially of the "unreliable," occurred.
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Well even if you had 10% to 15% to say no to the annexation of that 58%, it's going to be hard to prevent the remaining votes needed to pass. It's almost comparable to hitler giving Austria a say in annexation. Even if the voter intimidation of dissenters didn't happen, it's more likely to still pass.
 
TIDE-HSV

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81usaf92 said:
Well even if you had 10% to 15% to say no to the annexation of that 58%, it's going to be hard to prevent the remaining votes needed to pass. It's almost comparable to hitler giving Austria a say in annexation. Even if the voter intimidation of dissenters didn't happen, it's more likely to still pass.
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I have had more than one Austrian friend tell me the whole country was grateful the plebiscite never happened and a favorable vote recorded...
 
Tidewater

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81usaf92 said:
Well even if you had 10% to 15% to say no to the annexation of that 58%, it's going to be hard to prevent the remaining votes needed to pass. It's almost comparable to hitler giving Austria a say in annexation. Even if the voter intimidation of dissenters didn't happen, it's more likely to still pass.
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I will concede the point that a big hunk of the people in Crimea, perhaps an absolute majority, wanted reincorporation with Russia. Frankly, Ukraine is a mess.
 
81usaf92

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TIDE-HSV said:
I have had more than one Austrian friend tell me the whole country was grateful the plebiscite never happened and a favorable vote recorded...
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Are you talking about a legitimate vote on annexation, or are you suggesting a vote never was dropped? Hitler did greatly influence the vote because there is not mass fair vote that ever results in 99% either way, but Hitler most likely didn't need to influence the vote because Austria was in a nearly identical situation that Germany was in due to the depression and the TOV. Austria is ethnically and culturally similar to Germany in many ways, and they generally had a negative opinion with their chancellor at that time. Add all those together ,along with Germany seemingly the only European country out of the effects of the Great Depression, its not too outlandish that a fair vote would produce around 60% of Austrians favoring annexation. Then back then Hitler was still wearing the mask of an European Statesman, so no one really knew the real Hitler.
On March 12, 1938, German troops marched into Austria. Hitler announced his Anschluss, and a plebiscite was finally held on April 10. Whether the plebiscite was rigged or the resulting vote simply a testament to Austrian terror at Hitler’s determination, the Fuhrer garnered a whopping 99.7 percent approval for the union of Germany and Austria.
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http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/hitler-announces-an-anschluss-with-austria
 
TIDE-HSV

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81usaf92 said:
Are you talking about a legitimate vote on annexation, or are you suggesting a vote never was dropped? Hitler did greatly influence the vote because there is not mass fair vote that ever results in 99% either way, but Hitler most likely didn't need to influence the vote because Austria was in a nearly identical situation that Germany was in due to the depression and the TOV. Austria is ethnically and culturally similar to Germany in many ways, and they generally had a negative opinion with their chancellor at that time. Add all those together ,along with Germany seemingly the only European country out of the effects of the Great Depression, its not too outlandish that a fair vote would produce around 60% of Austrians favoring annexation. Then back then Hitler was still wearing the mask of an European Statesman, so no one really knew the real Hitler.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/hitler-announces-an-anschluss-with-austria
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They were saying that they thought that even a fair vote would have also resulted in Anschluss. However, Hitler was prepared to take no chances whatsoever on a negative vote. Also, as I indicated, they felt that they had successfully dodged the baggage Germany had to tote for so long, despite the fact that the country was easily as anti-Semitic as Germany...
 
Tide1986

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Maybe Europe is now rethinking the importance of NATO:

https://amgreatness.com/2017/03/22/europe-treasure-nato/

It is a bit rich to hear Europeans insist that any Trump Administration doubts about NATO’s usefulness is heresy—given their occasional popular indifference to and ambiguity about the alliance.

In current journalistic groupthink, Donald Trump has endangered NATO by suggesting a) it does not have a clearly defined role and needs to find one for the 21st century; and b) the vast majority of European members have welched on their defense spending commitments, on the expectation that the U.S. defense budget would always take up the slack, protect Europe, and thus indirectly subsidize the European social welfare project.
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