CFP top 25, week 11

Tiderollin32 · Nov 15, 2016

My first question is let's say Ohio State wins out so most assume their in but Penn State also wins out having played in the B10 Championship game. Penn State owns the head to head but they have 2 losses. Let's assume that Washington wins out and their in as well as Clemson. Who do you put in between Ohio State and Penn State?

2nd question assuming the final 4 are Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington where do you rank them? Both Washington and Clemson will have 1 more game on their resumes.

tattooguy21 · Nov 15, 2016

CrimsonForce said:
I don't think they have an agenda. Ohio State doesn't need any help to get in. Michigan has a top 4 resume right now. Who would you have above Michigan?

I would have went

Bama
Ohio
Clemson
Michigan

rgw · Nov 15, 2016

Michigan at #3 is obviously a "this will take care of itself" proposition. Either they're clearly done without their starting QB and it will be immediately apparent against Indiana OR OSU-UM decides it either way. The interesting thing is I don't see OSU dropping out after championship week seeing how they're not on the fringe at all. If they beat Michigan State and Michigan, they're practically a lock for the bracket. There is just no way that championship week means they're no longer top 2 right? It may mean that B1GCG sneaks into the field but not that OSU drops from #2 to #5 or lower without losing a game.

If everything went chalk at this point, I imagine the bracket will be:

Alabama v. Washington

Ohio State v. Clemson

tattooguy21 · Nov 15, 2016

PA Tide Fan said:
It looks to me that if OSU beats Michigan then the eventual Big 10 champion probably will not make the playoff. You would have a 2 loss Penn State or 2 loss Wisconsin as the Big 10 champion but if Louisville and Washington win out how would the Big 10 champion pass them?

They'd pass Washington based on the SoS that Washington has. Also, I don't think Washington will win out, so that will take care of itself.

Louisvilles best win is still their loss to Clemson. And quite frankly, I'd give Houston a 50/50 chance this Thursday when they play to win.

Nolan · Nov 15, 2016

Most of this will work itself out. Ohio State beats UM, Clemson and Washington go on to be conference champs. That will make the final (and only meaningful) rankings look like this IMO:

1 Bama vs 4 Washington
2 Ohio State vs 3 Clemson

MobileCrimson · Nov 15, 2016

CrimsonForce said:
Michigan has 3 wins vs the committee top 10 - Penn St, Wisconsin and Colorado. Louisville and Washington each have 1. Pretty big discrepancy there in favor of Michigan..

How is Colorado top 10? They haven't beaten anybody.

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LA4Bama · Nov 15, 2016

Also, I don't think the committee is really that into this process. They are probably way more sick of this than any of us. They probably just looked at a computer ranking and mailed it in.

tattooguy21 · Nov 15, 2016

Tiderollin32 said:
My first question is let's say Ohio State wins out so most assume their in but Penn State also wins out having played in the B10 Championship game. Penn State owns the head to head but they have 2 losses. Let's assume that Washington wins out and their in as well as Clemson. Who do you put in between Ohio State and Penn State?

2nd question assuming the final 4 are Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington where do you rank them? Both Washington and Clemson will have 1 more game on their resumes.

Regarding Penn st, 2 losses, but with a championship AND the head to head....if forced to choose Ohio or them, I wouldn't think twice about leaving Ohio out in the cold.

LA4Bama · Nov 15, 2016

Can a college game end in a tie? If so, then I pray for Michigan and OSU to tie.

rgw · Nov 15, 2016

If the rankings signal anything - and I think they do - I don't think it is an either or proposition for the committee at all w/r/t OSU and PSU. If OSU wins out in the regular season (looking good imo) and PSU wins out too (very likely), then I think the Big Ten champ (Wisky/PSU) + Ohio State have a decent chance to make the field.

Ohio State is a lock to make the field if they beat MSU and UM. The Big Ten champ needs help to get into the field but they'd be in good position.

WVU is the team to look out for to make a late push up the rankings and sneak in if chaos reigns. It would be hard to keep them out as a 1-loss P5 champ...

rgw · Nov 15, 2016

I don't think it is ever said but I think we will see some things weigh on the committee from externalities:

1. Commercial desire to avoid a rematch which could hurt ratings. Alabama-LSU BCSCG was a dud for ABC/ESPN.

2. Political desire to spread the wealth. This playoff exists because people didn't like that the BCS produced an SEC rematch in the national title. All the power conferences cannot get a seat at the table but I think they all expect their 1-loss champion to get a bid over a 2nd 2-loss team from a conference.

3. Commercial desire to maximize "cross-sectionality" to broaden national appeal. Really just a another facet to consider the second point: advertisers would rather see a West Coast, Southwest, Southern, and Midwest team if they had their druthers.

TideMom2Boys · Nov 15, 2016

Jessica4Bama said:
Am I only the one that really wants no part of Clemson this year? I haven't watched many of their games so they may not be anywhere as good as last year.

They aren't playing as well as they did last year. Only team I feel has a good chance against us is Ohio State..IMO.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Nov 15, 2016

tattooguy21 said:
Explain to me how Michigan stays #3 after a loss to a then 5/4 team in Iowawhile everyone else drops? You can't count "future matchups" or "this will fix itself."

The committee said these teams are based off the current teams wins and losses, not expectations.

Michigan lost in similar fashion to Clemson. Shouldn't they have stayed in the same spot, but was instead dropped 2.

I can't, but I can't make a case for anyone else other than OSU.

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rgw · Nov 15, 2016

Iowa is not as good as Pitt. Pure and simple. Until Pitt just no-showed against Miami (and likely got coached hard all week leading up to Clemson for it), they had lost 3 games by a total of 11 points. Iowa lost to an FCS team (admittedly, NDSU...a top 25 type FBS team), only beat Rutgers 14-7, and lost badly several times this season when facing quality competition. Iowa is probably worse than their record would indicate while Pitt is probably a bit better than their record indicates. Iowa was definitely a worse loss than USC but I can understand Michigan being above Washington simply because the Michigan resume is better.

Michigan suffered the worst loss of the season by any contender and lost their starting QB for the season in the process. They shouldn't be above 5th or 6th at this juncture if we were projecting a bit.

81usaf92 · Nov 15, 2016

tattooguy21 said:
Explain to me how Michigan stays #3 after a loss to a then 5/4 team in Iowawhile everyone else drops? You can't count "future matchups" or "this will fix itself."

The committee said these teams are based off the current teams wins and losses, not expectations.

Michigan lost in similar fashion to Clemson. Shouldn't they have stayed in the same spot, but was instead dropped 2.

I think this kinda shows the disconnect between fans and the new CFP. In the BCS it was about CONCRETE rankings at the time of each reveal, here it's about POSITIONING rankings to justify the last reveal.

Take a long look at 7-25. What SEC teams are there and where are they. The CFP doesn't have to make a case for Bama so those teams will stay below unless Bama falls unexpected. That's why Tennessee and Florida are where they are after some really bad losses. Book it

Look at all the PAC 12 teams, everyone but Selma was very dismissive of the magic trick that I've alluded to for some time about how they were going to position a conference to make a big jump in the last 3 weeks. Either Oklahoma/okie light or the PAC 12 will get in... Book it.

Big 10 safe, but only 1 will get in unless utter failure in the Big XII and PAC 12 happens. Book it

ACC is going to get either Louisville or Clemson in, and they WILL play Bama in Atlanta. Book it

Point is the rankings don't matter unless you are 3-6. The goal is to be one of the 4, and not 1 or 2 specifically. 3 and 4 have to rely on the magic from 7-25 to justify their existence. Look at the last 2 years at the Positioning. It's more crazy now because all conferences are still alive with serious contenders. So honestly everyone who says Team X is more deserving of the #8 spot because of their game against Team z are wasting your time. These again are positioned rankings and not what they should be or what a real serious poll would suggest. The only thing out of this that you can take from it is that Bama and tosu are in if they win out, and 3 and 4 will be justified by positioned opponents.

TideMom2Boys · Nov 15, 2016

Watching a replay of the CFB playoff show:

I love how #2-4 is not so much about which teams deserve to be there. It is about which teams can "challenge" Alabama. It is good to be a Bama fan.

tattooguy21 · Nov 15, 2016

81usaf92 said:
Look at all the PAC 12 teams, everyone but Selma was very dismissive of the magic trick that I've alluded to for some time about how they were going to position a conference to make a big jump in the last 3 weeks. Either Oklahoma/okie light or the PAC 12 will get in... Book it.

Big 10 safe, but only 1 will get in unless utter failure in the Big XII and PAC 12 happens. Book it

ACC is going to get either Louisville or Clemson in, and they WILL play Bama in Atlanta. Book it

Point is the rankings don't matter unless you are 3-.

I think the ultimate goal is to see a Bama vs Michigan/Ohio championship, and it would be set up accordingly to make that happen. I believe the committee was ecstatic with the previous set up of

Bama vs Washington (to resale the first championship game Bama ever played in)

And big 10 vs acc. This would either set up to blue bloods in Bama vs either Michigan/Ohio or a rematch of last year Bama vs Clemson. I'm not usually dismissive of other teams but this is my speculation of what I believe people want to see. Well, take that with a grain of salt. People wanted to see a incredible, unbeaten Clemson to end it. It appears neither is an option.

CrimsonNagus · Nov 15, 2016

MobileCrimson said:
How is Colorado top 10? They haven't beaten anybody.

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How can Louisville be in the top 5, most of there schedule is against high school teams. It's a joke pure and simple. How can a team lose to an unranked team and not drop a single spot? This committee is a joke and I'm sick and tired of 12 idiots deciding the course of the entire sport. Yes they have an agenda and this ranking proves it, they will do anything to get OSU in the playoffs. That's the only reason for not punishing UM for a horrible, horrible loss.

If Bama loses the Iron Bowl, this committee better not drop us at all. If UM can survive a loss to Iowa we should not budge losing to a ranked AU team.

BamaSC · Nov 15, 2016

WVU is the team to look out for to make a late push up the rankings and sneak in if chaos reigns. It would be hard to keep them out as a 1-loss P5 champ...

This is what I'm looking at. If WVU wins out, they have a case.

gamersfuel · Nov 16, 2016

rankings look ok IMO.. Michigan has 3 wins vs top 10 teams in back to back to back weeks. Cant be blind to that when others have lost a game as well. OSU has the better loss so i agree with them at 2. And of course Clemson ahead of Louisville due to head to head. Louisville has the 1 good win over FSU. Washington is ok at 6..

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