Who would have thought that a two loss team would make the playoffs? There are only five legit one loss teams now, and of those, Michigan or Ohio State will have at least one loss again because they play each other. And Washington has a high probability of losing to either Washington State on the road or USC again at a neutral site this time. Clemson has been really shaky too, so who knows how they will finish. I'd put the odds now at 75-80% that a two loss team will be in the playoffs.
Two loss team has a great chance to make playoff now
- Thread starter BAMAfan777
- Start date
If a two loss team goes, it'll be a conference champion.
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Alabama is in as long as they don't lose twice - yeah, Alabama is in as the sole undefeated team.
I don't think that Clemson will lose again, so they will be in with 1 loss.
Washington could easily lose again - IMO, that puts the PAC out of the playoffs.
This leaves the B1G and Big 12 fighting for the 2 remaining playoff spots.
If the Buckeyes win out, they are in with 1 loss without winning the B1G.
This opens the door for a 2 loss B1G champion.
IMO, for the Big 12 to have a shot they need to have Washington lose and Ohio State or Michigan win the B1G (eliminating PSU and Wisconsin). If PSU or Wisconsin win the B1G, they will be in with the Washington loss.
So, yes, I believe that at least 1 and probably 2 two loss teams make the playoff this year.
I don't think that Clemson will lose again, so they will be in with 1 loss.
Washington could easily lose again - IMO, that puts the PAC out of the playoffs.
This leaves the B1G and Big 12 fighting for the 2 remaining playoff spots.
If the Buckeyes win out, they are in with 1 loss without winning the B1G.
This opens the door for a 2 loss B1G champion.
IMO, for the Big 12 to have a shot they need to have Washington lose and Ohio State or Michigan win the B1G (eliminating PSU and Wisconsin). If PSU or Wisconsin win the B1G, they will be in with the Washington loss.
So, yes, I believe that at least 1 and probably 2 two loss teams make the playoff this year.
I don't see Ohio State getting past a 11-2 Big 10 champion Wisconsin or a 11-2 Penn State Big 10 champion. OSU better hope Wisconsin wins for they at least beat Wisky by a TD. I think Oklahoma and OSU need Washington and Clemson to lose.
I think that you are kidding yourself. If we beat Michigan, we are in. That is as certain as Alabama being in.
Houston has to be kicking themselves for losing to Navy and SMU. They would be a shoe in otherwise..
I think OSU should be in but I can't shake the feeling that there will not be 2 teams from any one conference.
I think you need to win the division or have Wisconsin win it, if you lose to Michigan or Penn wins the B1G I think you might well be disappointed and angry.
WHEN y'all stomp UM into a mudhole and walk them dry the Buckeyes will be in. Virtual lock for #2 and ESPN is drooling over the potential ratings.
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If Penn State and OSU win out, this will certainly be the year that we find out how important a conference championship is. Ohio State has a solid resume, but would the committee put them in over a B1G champion PSU that beat OSU? I don't know.
This assumes that Bama, Clemson and Washington are the other 3 teams.
And I'm not entirely convinced that Washington will make it out of the Pac-12.
It's pure chaos now. This is why we don't need an 8 team playoff.
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I disagree. And for the record, I hope that I'm correct and you are not. Here's why: consider that Alabama could easily be in OSU's shoes. In fact, we were, in 2011. Now, I'll grant you that there was a difference in that we lost to what was the #1 team at the time, LSU, who would finish the regular season 12-0. Ohio State lost to a 2 loss team, but on the road and with a freaky ending. That 2011 Alabama deserved the NC game, and it would deserve to be included in a 4 team playoff as well. If we are taking the 4 best teams, then Ohio State has to get in.
Now, where I part ways with most folks who agree with that point is that this also means the B1G champion, 2 loss Penn State or 2 loss Wisconsin, ALSO must get in. I disagree. I think Clemson is going to win out and that means they are in, but I don't think Washington can win out. And that last spot is going to come down to Wisconsin/Penn State, a 2 loss Pac 12 champion, or a 2 loss Big 12 champion. Who knows at that point?
Ohio State is a better team than Penn State. That loss was legitimate but it was also a fluke where Penn State had an inordinate number of breaks go their way. Ohio State has played 3 top-10 teams on the road and went 2-1 in those games. Penn State caught the easiest draw of any of the Big Ten East contenders. Do you think they're just a 2-loss team right now if they had to play both Wisconsin and Nebraska like Ohio State or Wisconsin like Michigan? PSU lost to Pitt and struggled against Temple. Ohio State beat Oklahoma on the road and got a decisive win over Tulsa (a quality G5 team). Michigan stomped Penn State but also beat a strong Colorado team.
Penn State is the 3rd best team in that division. Played an easy OOC schedule where they still lost a game, went 1-1 against the top 2 teams in the division (got stomped in one and kinda fluke'd the other), and they got the absolute easiest Big Ten West draw of those top 3 teams.
No Penn State doesn't deserve the CFP bid if they win the Big Ten. I'm not even certain they'd beat Wisconsin who caught the hardest cross-division draw from the East yet still controls their destiny in the West.
Penn State is the 3rd best team in that division. Played an easy OOC schedule where they still lost a game, went 1-1 against the top 2 teams in the division (got stomped in one and kinda fluke'd the other), and they got the absolute easiest Big Ten West draw of those top 3 teams.
No Penn State doesn't deserve the CFP bid if they win the Big Ten. I'm not even certain they'd beat Wisconsin who caught the hardest cross-division draw from the East yet still controls their destiny in the West.
Personally, I think it will end up like this:
1) Alabama (Undefeated SEC champion)
4) Wisconsin (2 loss Big Ten champion)
2) Clemson (1 loss ACC champion)
3) Ohio State (1 loss at-large))
1) Alabama (Undefeated SEC champion)
4) Wisconsin (2 loss Big Ten champion)
2) Clemson (1 loss ACC champion)
3) Ohio State (1 loss at-large))
I agree completely. If Alabama, Washington and Clemson win out the B1G champion (PSU or Wisconsin) will be left out.
I don't this UW will even go to the PAC-12 championship. The fighting Leaches will likely beat them in the Apple Cup.
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The whole reason of getting Michigan into the top three was so when Ohio State beats them it will give them the necessary resume to be included without being a conference champion. Just more politics.
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If they both enter the game with one loss, the winner is in and the loser is out. If PSU and Wisconsin are in the B1G championship (both would have two losses). IMO neither makes it in if Clemson and Washington win out.
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