Pick The Score. Clemson-Ohio State

colbysullivan said:

One of you needs to change avatars, I was seriously confused for a second LOL

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81usaf92 said:

35-13 Clemson. Even though I want tosu, I just don't think they are ready for Watson nor do I think they can match point for point with them either

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PA Tide Fan said:

OK, I'll change mine since Sip was a member a lot longer than I was.

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selmaborntidefan said:

I did not fully crunch the numbers, I just did a basic overview of what I could find on minimal observation (so don't rip my attempt as it's not using what I'm working on).

The numbers do NOT support Clemson's defense as being as good as the NUMBERS suggest.

They've played the following top 50 offenses:

Louisville (corrected 41.5 ppg) - they gave up 36 and probably give up 42 if not for a mistake. That's an 'as expected' performance for Louisville.

Pitt (corrected 38 ppg - Syracuse was an insane anomaly) - they scored 43 and won, so they actually exceeded their expected total.

Florida State (35.1) - scored 34, which is about what you'd expect

Va Tech (corrected 33.5) - scored 35......just as they did against Arky......

Auburn (corrected 26.1) - scored 13 (okay, their defense did good in the first game of the year before Auburn's offense really got going)

Against the five best offenses they played, Clemson gave up pretty much what those teams average per game except for Auburn, and Auburn's numbers are skewed by the changes they made as the season progressed (and yes, I eliminated the 56-point Arky anomaly, too).


Given that Ohio State averages a corrected 37.7 ppg, you can expect the Buckeyes to score approximately 35-38 points, particularly since they tend to score about what opposing defenses permit (this puts them at 20 points even if Clemson plays their absolute best game on defense). Clemson's defense has some dominant performances against the lower ranked offenses in college football (Ga Tech, S Carolina).

Does anyone here honestly think that Ohio State will lose to Clemson if the Buckeyes do score 35 points?

Ohio State's defense, on the other hand, has had some pretty dominant performances considering the competition. Yeah, OU got 24 points, but that's 20 points below their average. Even if you correct it for anomalies, it's still over 15 points under average. OU's offense is better (on paper at least) than Clemson, and they've played a much tougher schedule. Even in the game they lost, the Buckeye DEFENSE held Penn State double digits below their average output.

Given that Clemson has a corrected ppg average of about 38 points, this suggests that they won't top 23 points, either.

Ohio State 35
Clemson 24


Again - this is based on a cursory look and primarily via the defenses.

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selmaborntidefan said:

I did not fully crunch the numbers, I just did a basic overview of what I could find on minimal observation (so don't rip my attempt as it's not using what I'm working on).

The numbers do NOT support Clemson's defense as being as good as the NUMBERS suggest.

They've played the following top 50 offenses:

Louisville (corrected 41.5 ppg) - they gave up 36 and probably give up 42 if not for a mistake. That's an 'as expected' performance for Louisville.

Pitt (corrected 38 ppg - Syracuse was an insane anomaly) - they scored 43 and won, so they actually exceeded their expected total.

Florida State (35.1) - scored 34, which is about what you'd expect

Va Tech (corrected 33.5) - scored 35......just as they did against Arky......

Auburn (corrected 26.1) - scored 13 (okay, their defense did good in the first game of the year before Auburn's offense really got going)

Against the five best offenses they played, Clemson gave up pretty much what those teams average per game except for Auburn, and Auburn's numbers are skewed by the changes they made as the season progressed (and yes, I eliminated the 56-point Arky anomaly, too).


Given that Ohio State averages a corrected 37.7 ppg, you can expect the Buckeyes to score approximately 35-38 points, particularly since they tend to score about what opposing defenses permit (this puts them at 20 points even if Clemson plays their absolute best game on defense). Clemson's defense has some dominant performances against the lower ranked offenses in college football (Ga Tech, S Carolina).

Does anyone here honestly think that Ohio State will lose to Clemson if the Buckeyes do score 35 points?

Ohio State's defense, on the other hand, has had some pretty dominant performances considering the competition. Yeah, OU got 24 points, but that's 20 points below their average. Even if you correct it for anomalies, it's still over 15 points under average. OU's offense is better (on paper at least) than Clemson, and they've played a much tougher schedule. Even in the game they lost, the Buckeye DEFENSE held Penn State double digits below their average output.

Given that Clemson has a corrected ppg average of about 38 points, this suggests that they won't top 23 points, either.

Ohio State 35
Clemson 24


Again - this is based on a cursory look and primarily via the defenses.

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Crimson Flyboy said:

This is a very good analysis, especially since this is what you consider a cursory look.

I expect OSU to win, Clemson is not quite what they were last season.

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