I'm still unsure whether osu, Michigan or psu were actually any good at all.
Pick the score: Clemson vs. Alabama (National Championship Game)
- Thread starter Jessica4Bama
- Start date
Everyone needs to add about 17-21 points for each team to their predictions then.
First, what the numbers say it should be with the weight of my own very subjective evaluation which is admittedly short on numbers crunching:
Bama 34
Clemson 24
Now my gut feeling as of now in which I try to incorporate the above, the events of the week, and obviously my feel of what will happen:
Bama 45
Clemson 17
My thoughts:
Bama gets 1, maybe 2 NOT's OR sets up short fields for the O.
Bama usually scores more than the opposing D allows. LSU is a notable exception.
Clemson's D often goes even there, at least against the better teams. OSU is the notable exception.
Clemson's O usually does better than the D's average and Bama holds way below the opposing O's average.
Game plan on D should be stop the run, contain and put pressure on Watson, make him beat you with his arm but under duress. Problem here is Watson can make something out of nothing by buying time with his feet or just with his feet.
We didn't get to see our offense anywhere near peak performance against UW. We will see a better game plan, a better prepared offense, and better in game adjustments. The pass will once again become an asset instead of a liability. The run game efficiency will improve with better play calling. Balance. The run will set up the pass will set up the run.
This should be a close game. Clemson has the best team with the best athletes we've seen this season (IOW, team+athletes=best we've faced).
That said, Alabama has not put together a fully complete game lately (D. ST, run, and pass).
That changes Monday and Bama methodically pulls away and thoroughly whips a quality opponent.
I'll take any win by any margin and be happy as can be. 2-0 or 65-64 would suit me fine. A win is a win and this one even more so.
I might be crazy, but something tells me this team will to be ready and raring to go.
Bama 34
Clemson 24
Now my gut feeling as of now in which I try to incorporate the above, the events of the week, and obviously my feel of what will happen:
Bama 45
Clemson 17
My thoughts:
Bama gets 1, maybe 2 NOT's OR sets up short fields for the O.
Bama usually scores more than the opposing D allows. LSU is a notable exception.
Clemson's D often goes even there, at least against the better teams. OSU is the notable exception.
Clemson's O usually does better than the D's average and Bama holds way below the opposing O's average.
Game plan on D should be stop the run, contain and put pressure on Watson, make him beat you with his arm but under duress. Problem here is Watson can make something out of nothing by buying time with his feet or just with his feet.
We didn't get to see our offense anywhere near peak performance against UW. We will see a better game plan, a better prepared offense, and better in game adjustments. The pass will once again become an asset instead of a liability. The run game efficiency will improve with better play calling. Balance. The run will set up the pass will set up the run.
This should be a close game. Clemson has the best team with the best athletes we've seen this season (IOW, team+athletes=best we've faced).
That said, Alabama has not put together a fully complete game lately (D. ST, run, and pass).
That changes Monday and Bama methodically pulls away and thoroughly whips a quality opponent.
I'll take any win by any margin and be happy as can be. 2-0 or 65-64 would suit me fine. A win is a win and this one even more so.
I might be crazy, but something tells me this team will to be ready and raring to go.
To be fair, the ACC has done very well during this bowl season. Pitt did lose to NW with a ton of turnovers during that game (2 in the redzone?).
LSU lost 10-0 to you guys and they dominated UL in the bowl but we had a lot of TO during the UL game which made the score much closer (look at first half) than it truly was. You did take care of Auburn but we got them first game when our offense wasn't hitting on on cylinders (i wanted to put some useless cliche' writing in there).
You have played more consistent across the board but we aren't UW, NCST or PITT (event with a loss).
Last year you won with some close games (with a heisman winner) and who the hell has 11 defensive TD's in 1 year (pretty sure that is more offensive tds than some offenses!!??)
Watson got shafted for Heisman this year so I think he will back for a 4th year... prayers.
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Watson did not get shafted for the Heisman. 17 interceptions took care of that. And he is not returning next season-has already declared for the draft.
I've changed my mind about this game now. In the beginning, I thought we might either lose or win a close one. But after more and more information has been digested, we are going to win this one in shocking fashion to everyone but those within the Tide Nation.
Alabama - 41
Clemson - 13
Get ready for a beatdown Clemson.
Alabama - 41
Clemson - 13
Get ready for a beatdown Clemson.
nuff said
So does everyone's prediction still stand as first called? I'm thinking we win by a larger margin than I initially thought.
Yes ma'am. Clemson seems awfully cocky, as if last week's win some how clinched it for them. They seem to think they will score as many as they did last year and we will struggle against their defense like Ohio State did.
Our defense sounds like we lost last year. Our offense sounds like we lost last week. Unless we come out too tight, a la Mississippi, I think we win by more than I originally thought.
EVALUATING CLEMSON
To give you an idea of how it works: I take out the head-to-head but I also take out other anomaly games (SC State vs Clemson, for example) that can skew the data. The first number in parentheses is what the offense scored against that team (e.g. Clemson got 19 against Auburn). The second number is what Auburn’s uncorrected defense surrendered and the second number in parentheses is their ‘corrected for bias’ number, removing the cupcakes from all schedules. The far right number (example -11 in the first one) is determined by adding the corrected Clemson offense score with the corrected defense score and average them. The number to the far right is the differential with the number on the far left. In other words, Clemson would be expected in an AVERAGE performance across the board to score 30 points against Auburn. Because they only scored 19, they score -11 on the expectation score. Those are then averaged. The same is true for the other categories, although I did NOT figure other numbers for the post-December 31 bowl games. In other words, Florida’s numbers probably changed a tad. You will notice that the worst performances for Clemson are…Pitt and NC State. (Note: I only counted the score in regulation for NC State. Their best performance was Ohio State.
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
Clemson offense scores 39.5 (38)
(19) Auburn – 17.1 (20.8) – Johnson averaged 4.9 for year and 4.1 for game (-11)
(30) Troy – gives up 22.1 – Chunn got 2.9 and averaged 4.6 (0)
(26) Ga Tech – 24.5 (25.1) – Mills got 4.7 and averaged 5.1 (-5)
(42) Louisville – 23.8 (24.3) – Jackson averaged 5.2 and Radcliff 5.3 (5.2 and 6.5) (+11)
(31) Ohio St –(15.5) – only 23 carries, 11 by Barrett (+5)
(35) Wake Forest – 22.2 (22.3) – Carney got 3.8 on year and 3.3 on game (+5)
(24) NC State – 22.8 (24.3) – Dayes averaged 4.7 for year and got 4.8 for game (-14)
(56) Boston College – 25 (27.6) – Hilliman averaged 3.5 for game and 2.9 for year (+23)
(37) FSU – 25 (25.7) – Cook averaged 8.9 in game (169 yards) and 6.1 for year (+5)
(56) SCAR – 26.5 (23.6) – only ran 58 plays, equally dispersed (+25)
(42) Pitt – 35.2 (37.0) – Conner averaged 6.6 in game and 5.1 for year (+4)
(54) Syracuse – 38.6 (40.2) – dispersed carries for 105 yards (+15)
(42) Va Tech – 22.8 (21.2) – (+13)
Top rushing offenses faced: Auburn (Pettway wasn’t used), Ga Tech, Ohio St, Louisville, Pitt, FSU (6 of the top 50)
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
Clemson defense yields 17.1 (18.4)
(13) – Auburn (20.8) (+6)
(24) – Troy (33.7) (+1)
(7) – Ga Tech 28.2 (good) (+16)
(36) – Louisville – 42.5 (+3)
(0) – Ohio State 39.4 (34.2) (+29)
(13) – Wake Forest – 20.4 (18.9) – most points was 38 against Delaware (+5)
(17) – NC State – 27 (23.7) – 27% of offense in two games against OD and WM (+3)
(10) – Boston College (20.4) (+8)
(34) – FSU 35.1 (33.6) (-8)
(7) – SCAR – 20.8 (20.9) – Vandy and UK held to 10, UF to 7, ATM to 13 and UGA to 14 (+11)
(43) – Pitt 40.9 (37.5) – (-16)
(0) – Syracuse 25.7 (21.4) – but Pitt got 76, Notre Dame 50, Louisville 62 and even NC State got 35; they’re also 115th in rushing at 119.6 (+22)
(35) – Va Tech - 35 (33.1) – (-9)
In all sincerity, it is tough to know what to make of Clemson. Several teams on their schedule make it difficult. Can we derive any knowledge from South Carolina or Syracuse? It’s unfair to derive totally from NC State or Pitt, but it’s equally unfair to derive from Ohio State alone. They are an enigma, albeit an enigma that racks up a lot of yards and points.
Much will be made of the 8-4 ACC vs SEC record this year, but look closer at those games. Three of the eight wins belong to Ga Tech, who beat Vandy, Georgia, and Kentucky, three teams with a combined record of 21-18. The same UGA beat UNC while Clemson manhandled South Carolina. But this is mitigated by the fact that Vandy and Kentucky both held South Carolina to ten points, and nobody argues they have a Clemson defense. To be fair, the Gamecocks score was probably against the second string. And Tennessee handled Va Tech quite easily – with far greater ease than Clemson might I add. Their average offensive expectation score is +6, indicating they AVERAGE six points above what a defense normally surrenders. This points towards – all things being equal – 17 points by Clemson’s offense.
Much is made of “Clemson had three shutouts.” But to even count the one against SC State is borderline absurd. In general, they do hold teams below their rushing averages and quite well. They played two bottom of the barrel rushing teams. But they faced one top 20 rusher on the season - and Dalvin Cook ate their lunch, averaging 8.9 yards per carry and pumping out 169 yards. Watson lit up the Florida State secondary and the Noles got flagged for over 100 yards in penalties. Another runner who lit them up was Daynes from NC State. With just a slightly competent kicker, we are probably talking about the Alabama-Washington matchup this week (after Penn State makes the playoff when Clemson is excluded). Their defensive expectation score is +5.4, so based on Alabama’s corrected offensive PPG of around 31, all things being equal renders an Alabama points total of 29.
ALABAMA
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
(45) USC – gives up 22.2 (19.4) (+18)
(27) Ole Miss – 34.0 (32.7) (-4)
(27) Kentucky – 31.2 (30.9) (-3)
(42) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.1 – inflated by Auburn’s 56-point deluge) (+11)
(42) Tennessee – 29.3 (27.5) (+13)
(26) Texas A/M – 24.5 (23.7) (0)
(10) LSU – 16.4 (17.0) (-7)
(51) MSU – 31.8 (30.2) (+20)
(30) Auburn – 15.6 (14.2) (+8)
(41) Florida – 17.9 (14.6) (+17)
(17) Washington – 17.2 (-9)
OBSERVATIONS
It is truly bizarre that the ‘worst offensive performances’ of the season for Alabama came against Ole Miss and Kentucky. In fact in the Ole Miss game, the defense and special teams scored nearly as many points (21) as the offense did, and the offense actually gave up 7 points as well. One must not go overboard, however, in reading too much into the Ole Miss game – Mississippi State hung 55 points on the Rebels. Does anyone seriously think MSU was even in the same zip code as Alabama (51-3 anyone)? And then remember that Kentucky still managed to beat Louisville. Alabama’s offensive expectation average is 5.8 ppg, indicating the Tide offense would expect to score around 29 points on Clemson.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
(6) USC – 32.9 (35.9) (-17)
(37) Ole Miss – 32.6 (31.0 – numbers again fell when Kelly left for season) (+16)
(6) Kentucky – 31.0 (28.3) (-13)
(30) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.8) (+10)
(10) Tennessee – 36.3 (25.3 – inflated by 55 points vs Tenn Tech) (-8)
(14) Texas A/M – 34.8 (31.8, but numbers fell once Knight was gone) (-7)
(0) LSU – 28.3 (27.7) (-19)
(3) MSU – 30.4 (26.5) (-16)
(12) Auburn – 32.2 (20.8 – Ark St, ULM, Alabama AM and even Ark inflate numbers) (-4)
(14) Florida – 23.4 (22.6) (-3)
OBSERVATIONS
To put it mildly, it’s one hell of a defense. Even including the teams I chose to leave out – UTC, WKU, and Kent State – Alabama has played 13 games and the defense has not only held 11 of the teams below point averages……they’ve held ELEVEN opponents TWENTY POINTS BELOW expected averages. One was eight points below (Florida), one tied (Arky), and Ole Miss yet again was the anomaly. The defensive expectation score is a staggering -6.1, pointing to a Clemson points total of 18.5 – a total not coincidentally exactly 20 points below their average.
Based on numerical evaluations of the offense and defense individually, we surmise:
Alabama has a mean points range of 29, both on offense and defense.
Clemson has a mean points range of 17-19.
EXPECTATION
I expect a lot – and I mean 2012 UGA lot – of running. Bo Scarborough does not have the miles on him that Derrick Henry had by this time last year. The ability to alter this and use Hurts for ROP and ball control offense will be critical. I fully expect Clemson to turn the ball over at least twice. Their one interception was actually BELOW what was expected last year. If the Tide can take one to the house, it will flip the momentum.
Bo Scarborough averages 6.6 ypc. If he could get 20 carries and average that......the game would be ours.
Alabama 31 Clemson 17
PAST USES OF THIS MODEL
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23
2016 Peacn Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
(Record is 5-2, both errors were NFL and one was due to a stupid coach; in all cases, the point spread has been met or exceeded)
That's the model.
My GUT hunch? 31-13 us
To give you an idea of how it works: I take out the head-to-head but I also take out other anomaly games (SC State vs Clemson, for example) that can skew the data. The first number in parentheses is what the offense scored against that team (e.g. Clemson got 19 against Auburn). The second number is what Auburn’s uncorrected defense surrendered and the second number in parentheses is their ‘corrected for bias’ number, removing the cupcakes from all schedules. The far right number (example -11 in the first one) is determined by adding the corrected Clemson offense score with the corrected defense score and average them. The number to the far right is the differential with the number on the far left. In other words, Clemson would be expected in an AVERAGE performance across the board to score 30 points against Auburn. Because they only scored 19, they score -11 on the expectation score. Those are then averaged. The same is true for the other categories, although I did NOT figure other numbers for the post-December 31 bowl games. In other words, Florida’s numbers probably changed a tad. You will notice that the worst performances for Clemson are…Pitt and NC State. (Note: I only counted the score in regulation for NC State. Their best performance was Ohio State.
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
Clemson offense scores 39.5 (38)
(19) Auburn – 17.1 (20.8) – Johnson averaged 4.9 for year and 4.1 for game (-11)
(30) Troy – gives up 22.1 – Chunn got 2.9 and averaged 4.6 (0)
(26) Ga Tech – 24.5 (25.1) – Mills got 4.7 and averaged 5.1 (-5)
(42) Louisville – 23.8 (24.3) – Jackson averaged 5.2 and Radcliff 5.3 (5.2 and 6.5) (+11)
(31) Ohio St –(15.5) – only 23 carries, 11 by Barrett (+5)
(35) Wake Forest – 22.2 (22.3) – Carney got 3.8 on year and 3.3 on game (+5)
(24) NC State – 22.8 (24.3) – Dayes averaged 4.7 for year and got 4.8 for game (-14)
(56) Boston College – 25 (27.6) – Hilliman averaged 3.5 for game and 2.9 for year (+23)
(37) FSU – 25 (25.7) – Cook averaged 8.9 in game (169 yards) and 6.1 for year (+5)
(56) SCAR – 26.5 (23.6) – only ran 58 plays, equally dispersed (+25)
(42) Pitt – 35.2 (37.0) – Conner averaged 6.6 in game and 5.1 for year (+4)
(54) Syracuse – 38.6 (40.2) – dispersed carries for 105 yards (+15)
(42) Va Tech – 22.8 (21.2) – (+13)
Top rushing offenses faced: Auburn (Pettway wasn’t used), Ga Tech, Ohio St, Louisville, Pitt, FSU (6 of the top 50)
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
Clemson defense yields 17.1 (18.4)
(13) – Auburn (20.8) (+6)
(24) – Troy (33.7) (+1)
(7) – Ga Tech 28.2 (good) (+16)
(36) – Louisville – 42.5 (+3)
(0) – Ohio State 39.4 (34.2) (+29)
(13) – Wake Forest – 20.4 (18.9) – most points was 38 against Delaware (+5)
(17) – NC State – 27 (23.7) – 27% of offense in two games against OD and WM (+3)
(10) – Boston College (20.4) (+8)
(34) – FSU 35.1 (33.6) (-8)
(7) – SCAR – 20.8 (20.9) – Vandy and UK held to 10, UF to 7, ATM to 13 and UGA to 14 (+11)
(43) – Pitt 40.9 (37.5) – (-16)
(0) – Syracuse 25.7 (21.4) – but Pitt got 76, Notre Dame 50, Louisville 62 and even NC State got 35; they’re also 115th in rushing at 119.6 (+22)
(35) – Va Tech - 35 (33.1) – (-9)
In all sincerity, it is tough to know what to make of Clemson. Several teams on their schedule make it difficult. Can we derive any knowledge from South Carolina or Syracuse? It’s unfair to derive totally from NC State or Pitt, but it’s equally unfair to derive from Ohio State alone. They are an enigma, albeit an enigma that racks up a lot of yards and points.
Much will be made of the 8-4 ACC vs SEC record this year, but look closer at those games. Three of the eight wins belong to Ga Tech, who beat Vandy, Georgia, and Kentucky, three teams with a combined record of 21-18. The same UGA beat UNC while Clemson manhandled South Carolina. But this is mitigated by the fact that Vandy and Kentucky both held South Carolina to ten points, and nobody argues they have a Clemson defense. To be fair, the Gamecocks score was probably against the second string. And Tennessee handled Va Tech quite easily – with far greater ease than Clemson might I add. Their average offensive expectation score is +6, indicating they AVERAGE six points above what a defense normally surrenders. This points towards – all things being equal – 17 points by Clemson’s offense.
Much is made of “Clemson had three shutouts.” But to even count the one against SC State is borderline absurd. In general, they do hold teams below their rushing averages and quite well. They played two bottom of the barrel rushing teams. But they faced one top 20 rusher on the season - and Dalvin Cook ate their lunch, averaging 8.9 yards per carry and pumping out 169 yards. Watson lit up the Florida State secondary and the Noles got flagged for over 100 yards in penalties. Another runner who lit them up was Daynes from NC State. With just a slightly competent kicker, we are probably talking about the Alabama-Washington matchup this week (after Penn State makes the playoff when Clemson is excluded). Their defensive expectation score is +5.4, so based on Alabama’s corrected offensive PPG of around 31, all things being equal renders an Alabama points total of 29.
ALABAMA
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
(45) USC – gives up 22.2 (19.4) (+18)
(27) Ole Miss – 34.0 (32.7) (-4)
(27) Kentucky – 31.2 (30.9) (-3)
(42) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.1 – inflated by Auburn’s 56-point deluge) (+11)
(42) Tennessee – 29.3 (27.5) (+13)
(26) Texas A/M – 24.5 (23.7) (0)
(10) LSU – 16.4 (17.0) (-7)
(51) MSU – 31.8 (30.2) (+20)
(30) Auburn – 15.6 (14.2) (+8)
(41) Florida – 17.9 (14.6) (+17)
(17) Washington – 17.2 (-9)
OBSERVATIONS
It is truly bizarre that the ‘worst offensive performances’ of the season for Alabama came against Ole Miss and Kentucky. In fact in the Ole Miss game, the defense and special teams scored nearly as many points (21) as the offense did, and the offense actually gave up 7 points as well. One must not go overboard, however, in reading too much into the Ole Miss game – Mississippi State hung 55 points on the Rebels. Does anyone seriously think MSU was even in the same zip code as Alabama (51-3 anyone)? And then remember that Kentucky still managed to beat Louisville. Alabama’s offensive expectation average is 5.8 ppg, indicating the Tide offense would expect to score around 29 points on Clemson.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
(6) USC – 32.9 (35.9) (-17)
(37) Ole Miss – 32.6 (31.0 – numbers again fell when Kelly left for season) (+16)
(6) Kentucky – 31.0 (28.3) (-13)
(30) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.8) (+10)
(10) Tennessee – 36.3 (25.3 – inflated by 55 points vs Tenn Tech) (-8)
(14) Texas A/M – 34.8 (31.8, but numbers fell once Knight was gone) (-7)
(0) LSU – 28.3 (27.7) (-19)
(3) MSU – 30.4 (26.5) (-16)
(12) Auburn – 32.2 (20.8 – Ark St, ULM, Alabama AM and even Ark inflate numbers) (-4)
(14) Florida – 23.4 (22.6) (-3)
OBSERVATIONS
To put it mildly, it’s one hell of a defense. Even including the teams I chose to leave out – UTC, WKU, and Kent State – Alabama has played 13 games and the defense has not only held 11 of the teams below point averages……they’ve held ELEVEN opponents TWENTY POINTS BELOW expected averages. One was eight points below (Florida), one tied (Arky), and Ole Miss yet again was the anomaly. The defensive expectation score is a staggering -6.1, pointing to a Clemson points total of 18.5 – a total not coincidentally exactly 20 points below their average.
Based on numerical evaluations of the offense and defense individually, we surmise:
Alabama has a mean points range of 29, both on offense and defense.
Clemson has a mean points range of 17-19.
EXPECTATION
I expect a lot – and I mean 2012 UGA lot – of running. Bo Scarborough does not have the miles on him that Derrick Henry had by this time last year. The ability to alter this and use Hurts for ROP and ball control offense will be critical. I fully expect Clemson to turn the ball over at least twice. Their one interception was actually BELOW what was expected last year. If the Tide can take one to the house, it will flip the momentum.
Bo Scarborough averages 6.6 ypc. If he could get 20 carries and average that......the game would be ours.
Alabama 31 Clemson 17
PAST USES OF THIS MODEL
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23
2016 Peacn Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
(Record is 5-2, both errors were NFL and one was due to a stupid coach; in all cases, the point spread has been met or exceeded)
That's the model.
My GUT hunch? 31-13 us
I have a stat data system which says Bama will win by 5.9
My gut tells me Clemson is not taking this game seriously. They still think they should have won last year because they were the better team just as their QB thought he was the real Heisman Trophy winner. They actually believe their D is better than ours.
Clemson will come in playing to their talent level (which is below ours, btw) and our team will come in determined to win another natty.
Alabama by 21.
My gut tells me Clemson is not taking this game seriously. They still think they should have won last year because they were the better team just as their QB thought he was the real Heisman Trophy winner. They actually believe their D is better than ours.
Clemson will come in playing to their talent level (which is below ours, btw) and our team will come in determined to win another natty.
Alabama by 21.
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