I think there's a subconscious thing going on here. I saw this with the Atlanta Braves of the early 1990s. Clemson has been humming along and they're back in the game a second straight year and ready to win it all. But the problem is this: they were very successful last year at scoring points and accumulating yards even though they came up short. In the back of their minds, the only reason they 'really' lost that game was because of 'lucky breaks' - like the onsides kick. They figure that one extra possession was the five-point difference.
The problem for Clemson, though, is that since Alabama won and the mentality is different, Clemson arrives figuring they just have to play the same game they did last year but execute one more play; Alabama won but is approaching it like a team that lost while Clemson lost it and is approaching it like a team that won. And that's why I don't think it's going to be as close as most folks think it will.
Clemson played their peak game against Ohio State. The problem is this: Urban Meyer, for all his successes, has notoriously had teams - GOOD TEAMS - just not show up for games or flop when they got there. How did Florida lose to Auburn in 2006 or Ole Miss in 2008? Well, they lost the Auburn game on turnovers and only netting 279 yards of offense. They lost to Ole Miss on turnovers, too (do you realize that Ole Miss in 2008 only had ten first downs, gave up 443 yards while only getting 325, and got flagged for twice as many penalties for twice as many yards.....but won the game? Three turnovers killed a great Gators team). I'm not trying to rip Meyer, who's the second best coach out there right now, but many times his teams have shown up and just crashed (2005 Alabama). But Clemson still played their peak.
Alabama, meanwhile, plodded and mailed it in against Washington on offense....but it was still enough.
And I think the approach is what is going to do the Tigers in on Monday night. It's not the same team, and Alabama will have spent the entire week correcting what was done wrong last year.
This game is going to show how good of an in-game coach Dabo Swinney really is. And you never bet against Saban on that contest.