Saban is Right - Games are Decided by One or Two Plays

RTR91 · Jan 10, 2017

We've kind of rolled our eyes and laughed at Saban when he's said after a blowout every game is decided by one or two plays. Looking back at last night, he's right.

We can point to various things that played into the loss, but I think of three plays that changed the course of the game.

1. Cane's 43 yard reception on the screen from inside Clemson's 20 yard line.

We know an offense like Clemson is going to get theirs, and you just have to limit the damage. To that point in the game, the Bama defense had stopped Clemson and had Watson rattled. A missed tackle or two on the inside allowed Cane to break free and gain 43 yards and into Bama territory. That play gave the Clemson offense momentum.

2. Ryan Anderson's second half fumble recovery

If Renfrow doesn't hustle back and tackle Ryan at the 16, we have another NOT. The momentum is completely on Alabama's side, and the Clemson offense begins to get flustered. Instead, Alabama gets the ball and quickly gets a false start and ends up settling for a FG. Clemson being an emotional team gained confidence by their defense holding the offense to 3 points instead of 7.

3. Third and 10 at our own 44 with around 13:00 left in the game

The offense has a screen set up for Damian Harris, but OJ somehow catches the ball and only gains 5. If Harris makes the catch, he looked to get the first down and more. Instead, we had to punt.

Those are the three plays that stick out in my mind that changed the course of the game. Any others?

CrimsonForce · Jan 10, 2017

Pretty much the same as you:

- We followed both turnovers with a false start. Only scored 3 points off those 2 turnovers.
- Tackle by Renfrow
- Even though OJ caught the pass intended for Harris he still would have made 1st down yardage if not for the shoe string tackle
- Drop by Dieter on 3rd down

Loam · Jan 10, 2017

That ball that was thrown into Fosters hands on that pass over the middle. It was a bit high, maybe head level or so, but it was catchable by Foster. That was a pick six waiting to happen.

BamaBoySince89 · Jan 10, 2017

RTR91 said:
2. Ryan Anderson's second half fumble recovery

If Renfrow doesn't hustle back and tackle Ryan at the 16, we have another NOT. The momentum is completely on Alabama's side, and the Clemson offense begins to get flustered. Instead, Alabama gets the ball and quickly gets a false start and ends up settling for a FG. Clemson being an emotional team gained confidence by their defense holding the offense to 3 points instead of 7.

This ^^^^ is what I said also. That TD would have gotten us to OT if not sealed the game.

KrAzY3 · Jan 10, 2017

This is one reason I hate it when people try to assign blame after a loss like this. Either you blame just about 100 different things, from plays, to injuries, to dubious calls, or you just say hey, it was a really close game and if you flip a coin sometimes it lands on heads and sometimes it lands on tails. Don't get me wrong, there are reasons Alabama lost, but Alabama could have easily won with just a tiny bit more luck.

2009 season was saved by a blocked kid by Cody. 2011 season was saved by Iowa St. of all teams. 2012, the Georgia game comes down to the final play. 2013, we know, kick 6... 2014? I'd argue that getting their QB hurt lead to their winning a championship, which is crazy but seems true to me. 2015? A lot of people feel like that onsided kick was the difference in the game. If you look it's usually not hard to find that singular moment that decided how things turned out.

92tide · Jan 10, 2017

the play where hentges held and brought back a 1st yard gain. we had good momentum on offense there and likely would have put up points on the drive.

DrollTide · Jan 10, 2017

Calling the pick in the last second would have done it.

As it was, Clemson spotted us two turnovers. But I wish that any one of those second-half 3-and-outs could have gone for one more first down. One less penalty by 74 would have done it, one less design-Jalen-flush-right, JK not missing one punt, one less drop by any of 5 receivers.

Bottom line it is very hard to defend an exceptional quarterback who is hot, throwing to receivers who can catch like that. My feeling was we would lose a close game, but would probably win by 10+.

RTR91 · Jan 10, 2017

KrAzY3 said:
This is one reason I hate it when people try to assign blame after a loss like this. Either you blame just about 100 different things, from plays, to injuries, to dubious calls, or you just say hey, it was a really close game and if you flip a coin sometimes it lands on heads and sometimes it lands on tails. Don't get me wrong, there are reasons Alabama lost, but Alabama could have easily won with just a tiny bit more luck.

2009 season was saved by a blocked kid by Cody. 2011 season was saved by Iowa St. of all teams. 2012, the Georgia game comes down to the final play. 2013, we know, kick 6... 2014? I'd argue that getting their QB hurt lead to their winning a championship, which is crazy but seems true to me. 2015? A lot of people feel like that onsided kick was the difference in the game. If you look it's usually not hard to find that singular moment that decided how things turned out.

I think this is why losing like Alabama has since 2008 has been more painful than just being bad. It's not as simple as saying "we weren't good." There are things in every Bama loss that can we can point to as a "what could have been" or "what if" type play.

bamaltc · Jan 10, 2017

On three different third downs, Jalen was right on the money -- and our receivers dropped the ball. We get two turnovers, then have two false starts on 1st down. Poor execution all around. Change any one or two of those things and the outcome might have been different. Make one of those first downs, we eat more clock and the defense gets rest. Have no false start when it's 1st down at their 15, and we may come away with 7 instead of three. Have no false starts at all on those plays and we get two additional scores. So IMO Jalen was NOT our problem last night. One play can and does make a difference.

KrAzY3 · Jan 10, 2017

RTR91 said:
I think this is why losing like Alabama has since 2008 has been more painful than just being bad. It's not as simple as saying "we weren't good." There are things in every Bama loss that can we can point to as a "what could have been" or "what if" type play.

I agree. Ohio State's loss to Clemson, they couldn't look back at that and pick out a play or two, they just looked bad. It's been a long time since Alabama just got their butts kicked. On the other hand, and I've brought this up from time to time, the more variables you introduce the more randomized things can become. Alabama was favored in both playoff games, yet only had around a 40% chance to win the playoff. You expect a team to lose a game when they have to play 15, for Clemson last year and Alabama this year that loss just came at the wrong time.

Highway59 · Jan 10, 2017

I haven't saw mention of this, and if Alabama had laid the lick, the announcing crew would have debated endlessly the hit. Late in game boulware hit Stewart with what looked to be crown of helmet to defenseless players head. I know its contact sport, but it bothers me that "when Bama looks to have caught a break", announcers go out of way to draw attention to incident. I never saw a full replay of what Payne did to warrant the unsportsmanlike conduct toward end of game either.....

92tide · Jan 10, 2017

Highway59 said:
I haven't saw mention of this, and if Alabama had laid the lick, the announcing crew would have debated endlessly the hit. Late in game boulware hit Stewart with what looked to be crown of helmet to defenseless players head. I know its contact sport, but it bothers me that "when Bama looks to have caught a break", announcers go out of way to draw attention to incident. I never saw a full replay of what Payne did to warrant the unsportsmanlike conduct toward end of game either.....

he was in a shoving match with a clemson player and swatted at him

Highway59 · Jan 10, 2017

92tide said:
he was in a shoving match with a clemson player and swatted at him

Thanks, guess I missed it. Been better if referee had missed it.

Snuffy Smith · Jan 10, 2017

Highway59 said:
I haven't saw mention of this, and if Alabama had laid the lick, the announcing crew would have debated endlessly the hit. Late in game boulware hit Stewart with what looked to be crown of helmet to defenseless players head. I know its contact sport, but it bothers me that "when Bama looks to have caught a break", announcers go out of way to draw attention to incident. I never saw a full replay of what Payne did to warrant the unsportsmanlike conduct toward end of game either.....

The Boulware tackle didn't look crown of helmet but Stewart should have been deemed defenseless because his back was to him as he was catching the ball (or attempting to)- so any contact to the head at that point should have drawn the flag.

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BradtheImpaler · Jan 10, 2017

Snuffy Smith said:
The Boulware tackle didn't look crown of helmet but Stewart should have been deemed defenseless because his back was to him as he was catching the ball (or attempting to)- so any contact to the head at that point should have drawn the flag.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks pretty much crown of helmet to the face to me. Pause it at contact and you can see the back of Stewart's helmet pop up from the impact directly to the facemask.

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/WATCH-Boulwares-big-hit-Alabama-WR-25741

Snuffy Smith · Jan 10, 2017

BradtheImpaler said:
Looks pretty much crown of helmet to the face to me. Pause it at contact and you can see the back of Stewart's helmet pop up from the impact directly to the facemask.

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/WATCH-Boulwares-big-hit-Alabama-WR-25741

You know with the new definition of "any part of the helmet above the face mask" I think you are right. I never looked back at it. I just knew he was in the middle of turning around from the catch which makes him defenseless.

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JustNeedMe81 · Jan 10, 2017

I think we will See Saban and the staff doing some annual tour around the country and come up with new ideas for the defense. I bet he'll go see his buddy in NFL or maybe bring someone on as an analyst for defense.

smith5753 · Jan 10, 2017

JustNeedMe81 said:
I think we will See Saban and the staff doing some annual tour around the country and come up with new ideas for the defense. I bet he'll go see his buddy in NFL or maybe bring someone on as an analyst for defense.

If you look at all the variables, I don't think our defense played bad. Watson is the type of QB that 9/10 times your not going to shut him down. He's a rare talent that doesn't come along very often. His passes are placed perfect. he makes great reads and anticipates routs coming open. He buys time with his elusiveness and strings plays out and has the ability to kill you with his legs. If a player like him is on, he's going to get his yards. The way you defend that type of freak athlete is limit his touches. Our defense did a great job early on of affecting Watson but he started to settle into the game even before our defense was running on fumes. You simply can not give him 99 snaps and expect to win. The fact that we had several opportunities to still win that game is nothing short of amazing.

There is another point to be made here. I heard people all day long talking about how Clemson is now Alabama's equal, and I agree that they are a great team with great coaching. However, we just got beat by one of the best QB's to play the game in some time while dealing with one of our weakest passing attacks of the Saban era: final 35-31. Is there anybody that thinks this is even a ball game if Watson suited up in Crimson last night. To me that speaks volumes about these two teams as a whole. We win last night with average QB play. We run them out of the stadium with an NFL talent at QB

CrimsonEyeshade · Jan 11, 2017

For me, losing this game has been hard, but only to a point. That's because for as many plays that we failed to make that contributed to our losing, Clemson made far more to win.

What still consumes me about Kick 6 is there were more than a dozen routine moments, and I use the word routine because we were a great team that year, in which the simple execution of catching or throwing a short pass, not committing a hold 10 yards behind a game-clinching play, making a yard in two tries, hitting any one of several short field goals, and on and on and on, would have set us up for history.

But that's sports.

AlBamaWagg · Jan 11, 2017

bamaltc said:
On three different third downs, Jalen was right on the money -- and our receivers dropped the ball. We get two turnovers, then have two false starts on 1st down. Poor execution all around. Change any one or two of those things and the outcome might have been different. Make one of those first downs, we eat more clock and the defense gets rest. Have no false start when it's 1st down at their 15, and we may come away with 7 instead of three. Have no false starts at all on those plays and we get two additional scores. So IMO Jalen was NOT our problem last night. One play can and does make a difference.

I totally agree with you and others who say that one catch of a dropped ball or one less penalty could have changed the final score, however would it have materially changed the stats and performance rating of the QB? It can't be dismissed that easily. And while I do believe that JH is extremely talented and will develop into an outstanding QB, I find it next to impossible to believe that there wasn't an existing QB out of the four that were sacrificed because of no real prospect of playing, that were not able to manage the game, pass consistently, hand off to RB's, and run when necessary. It's been a good formula as recently as last year. That would have allowed JH time to adjust to the college game and have time for the staff to identify and correct his undeveloped skills prior to being put into an OJT situation. After that one year, let the competition begin. I think most would agree that QB is a totally different position than any other and requires different handling. DW's are beyond rare.
JH gave a remarkable first year performance for an 18 year old, but was an 18 year old what was needed? Would the need for one less mistake have been relevant?
To those players graduating or moving on for a shot in the NFL, thank you for the ride, and may you be Blessed with success and happiness. RTR

Saban is Right - Games are Decided by One or Two Plays

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