First, I want to congratulate the team on their great season.
I think a lot of Alabama fans are taking the loss as well as can be expected. However, there are a few spoiled, entitled fans that seem to have lost all perspective. I'm not really writing this on their behalf, but I think it is important to keep certain realities in mind. For instance, Alabama won the SEC and 14 games with a true freshman quarterback. Before anyone complains they should think about that for a bit.
Playoffs:
I might as well get this out of the way first, as I haven't exactly kept my opinions on this to myself. One reason I didn't like the playoff is because it added more variables, more chances to lose. It also allows for a hot team to win a championship, even with an inferior regular season. Now, eventually this might work in Alabama's favor, but so far their two playoff losses have come to teams that wouldn't have even been in the BCSCG (while Alabama would have been in the past 3). That aside, it is an extra obstacle. Alabama was favored by around 60% in each playoff game, but in total only had around a 40% chance to win the championship. The odds were never in their favor. I'm not trying to argue against the playoff with this post, but people can't expect BCS era dominance in the playoff era. One would argue that was the entire point, to give more conferences/teams a chance. That has worked as it has produced champions from three difference conferences.
Inexperience on offense:
I've mentioned this in the past, but at times Alabama had a true freshman handing off to a true freshman who was blocked by a true freshman. That's insane. I don't buy the "no longer a true freshman" talk either. Hurts was still 18, he didn't gain years of practice throughout the season, some aspects of development take time he hasn't had. Then, we had the transition to Sark. Sark might very well be a better coordinator than Kiffin, but there's no way he could install his offense in one week. So, instead we saw Sark basically calling Kiffin's plays, something he had to acclimate to.
Losses on defense:
This started in the spring, when Alabama lost a would be starting DB to Kirby Smart shenanigans. Alabama also had a couple more DBs defect, creating a lack of depth and a exploitable weakness. The two times Alabama's defense got lit up in the 4th quarter involved similar scenarios. Alabama's defense was tired, and they were missing starting defensive backs. Eddie Jackson's injury wasn't something I think Alabama every really overcame. The punt return game because non-existent, and I think it put a lot more pressure on the remaining defensive backs. The injury to Shaun Dion Hamilton really impacted the depth as well. With the missing starters, Clemson's ability to tire the Alabama defense was enhanced, and it showed.
Alabama got the least opponent penalties in the FBS:
This was a consistent theme, and you can attribute it to what ever you want. The fact is that Alabama's opponents had less penalties when they played Alabama than when they played other teams. The lopsided calls were on display in the championship game. Clemson had 3 penalties while Alabama had 9. Why this happened is one thing, but the impact on the game is obvious.
Alabama had no business winning 14 games:
After the championship game last year, I thought ok, now they can have an off year. They were losing the starting QB, a Heisman trophy winner, and looked to lose a lot of key defenders. After the dust settled, a few key guys stayed and things looked a little better. However, the lack of anyone else stepping up resulted in Alabama starting a true freshman quarterback. While this hasn't been cited as a statistic (probably since he didn't actually start all the games), I don't think any true freshman QB has ever won 14 games before. This shouldn't have happened.
The Kiffin effect:
I'm not mad at Kiffin. His play calling in the playoffs last year was masterful and also what it took to win a championship. He developed 3 first time starting QBs, and helped each win SEC titles. However, we all know the ending was a mess. I alluded to it before, but it's not ideal to have a guy calling his first game for the team in the championship game. Kiffin's inability to be focused on the task at hand (which is somewhat comparable to the job Smart did against Clemson last year) became a big problem. This was a lesser of two evils, and as soon as it became clear this was a problem, my hopes for a championship went down significantly. Sarkisian had to go out there and call plays without the benefit of introducing his own offense (which while similar is not identical). If Kiffin had been focused and did the job to the best of his abilities, I have little doubt that Alabama's offense could have performed better.
Bad luck:
Alabama has had a lot of good luck over the years. Cody's block in 2009, Iowa State's win in 2011. The fact that their starting QBs don't seem to miss starts. But, things can't always go in their favor. From the kick six in 2013, to Bo's injury last night (imagine if Henry had been hurt in the Clemson game), sometimes a little bad luck goes a long way. Heck, if NC State could kick a field goal, Alabama is probably celebrating a championship right now. This is actually what makes Alabama's accomplishments so amazing though. That somehow, they find a way to consistently overcome bad luck that plagues pretty much every team. Alabama has won 3 SEC titles in a row, they've been to the playoffs 3 years in a row. Even when they lose it is a close game.
Alabama is still Alabama:
Each time Alabama stumbles, there's people out there that want to point fingers and explain why this means Alabama is done for, or find some fundamental flaw. I don't see it. Ohio State lost two games this year, including a blowout. Yet, I think we all know they're loaded with talent and have a great coach. Florida State lost 3 games this year, including a blowout. Yet, I think the same can be said for them. Alabama lost one game, on the final play in the championship game. They'll lose some key guys, but if anyone can reload, it's Alabama.
We probably haven't seen the best from Hurts:
It's important to remember the obstacles Hurts was facing. Inexperience, a distracted, or brand new play caller. Stuff like that can't help. Yet, he still came through every time this year when he absolutely had to. What he could become remains to be seen, but the upside is huge. Hurts was actually better as a freshman (remember, true freshman) than Lamar Jackson (8TDs/12 INTs) for instance. Considerably better as a matter of fact. Vince Young's first season (redshirt freshman) he wasn't very good (6 TDs/7 INTs) he was also a mess as a passer his sophomore year(12 TDs/11 INTs). The following year he threw for 3,000 yards. Deshaun Watson and Tim Tebow did look very sharp as true freshman, but neither were asked to do very much either. Another example would be Jacob Eason, who despite all the hype really looked worse. Heck, Hurts put up better passing numbers than Peyton Manning did as a true freshman. There is a legitimate debate to be had that Hurts might be the best true freshman quarterback ever. Alabama also played the toughest schedule in all of the FBS, so Hurts was facing a ton of adversity. If he progresses and doesn't regress, he could become the most dominant Saban quarterback ever. It might not even be close.
So, what does that all add up to? Not everything went Alabama's way, and not everything can go Alabama's way. However, we might be entering an era Alabama isn't really accustomed to. Alabama might have their own Tim Tebow or Deshaun Watson. They have a great playcaller who develops quarterbacks well. If Hurts can develop more, this team could take another step forward, and that would be very scary to the competition.
Luck still has to favor Alabama. Hurts needs to stay healthy, players need to avoid doing stupid things, etc... but at this point in time I feel better about the upcoming season than I did at this point last year.
I think a lot of Alabama fans are taking the loss as well as can be expected. However, there are a few spoiled, entitled fans that seem to have lost all perspective. I'm not really writing this on their behalf, but I think it is important to keep certain realities in mind. For instance, Alabama won the SEC and 14 games with a true freshman quarterback. Before anyone complains they should think about that for a bit.
Playoffs:
I might as well get this out of the way first, as I haven't exactly kept my opinions on this to myself. One reason I didn't like the playoff is because it added more variables, more chances to lose. It also allows for a hot team to win a championship, even with an inferior regular season. Now, eventually this might work in Alabama's favor, but so far their two playoff losses have come to teams that wouldn't have even been in the BCSCG (while Alabama would have been in the past 3). That aside, it is an extra obstacle. Alabama was favored by around 60% in each playoff game, but in total only had around a 40% chance to win the championship. The odds were never in their favor. I'm not trying to argue against the playoff with this post, but people can't expect BCS era dominance in the playoff era. One would argue that was the entire point, to give more conferences/teams a chance. That has worked as it has produced champions from three difference conferences.
Inexperience on offense:
I've mentioned this in the past, but at times Alabama had a true freshman handing off to a true freshman who was blocked by a true freshman. That's insane. I don't buy the "no longer a true freshman" talk either. Hurts was still 18, he didn't gain years of practice throughout the season, some aspects of development take time he hasn't had. Then, we had the transition to Sark. Sark might very well be a better coordinator than Kiffin, but there's no way he could install his offense in one week. So, instead we saw Sark basically calling Kiffin's plays, something he had to acclimate to.
Losses on defense:
This started in the spring, when Alabama lost a would be starting DB to Kirby Smart shenanigans. Alabama also had a couple more DBs defect, creating a lack of depth and a exploitable weakness. The two times Alabama's defense got lit up in the 4th quarter involved similar scenarios. Alabama's defense was tired, and they were missing starting defensive backs. Eddie Jackson's injury wasn't something I think Alabama every really overcame. The punt return game because non-existent, and I think it put a lot more pressure on the remaining defensive backs. The injury to Shaun Dion Hamilton really impacted the depth as well. With the missing starters, Clemson's ability to tire the Alabama defense was enhanced, and it showed.
Alabama got the least opponent penalties in the FBS:
This was a consistent theme, and you can attribute it to what ever you want. The fact is that Alabama's opponents had less penalties when they played Alabama than when they played other teams. The lopsided calls were on display in the championship game. Clemson had 3 penalties while Alabama had 9. Why this happened is one thing, but the impact on the game is obvious.
Alabama had no business winning 14 games:
After the championship game last year, I thought ok, now they can have an off year. They were losing the starting QB, a Heisman trophy winner, and looked to lose a lot of key defenders. After the dust settled, a few key guys stayed and things looked a little better. However, the lack of anyone else stepping up resulted in Alabama starting a true freshman quarterback. While this hasn't been cited as a statistic (probably since he didn't actually start all the games), I don't think any true freshman QB has ever won 14 games before. This shouldn't have happened.
The Kiffin effect:
I'm not mad at Kiffin. His play calling in the playoffs last year was masterful and also what it took to win a championship. He developed 3 first time starting QBs, and helped each win SEC titles. However, we all know the ending was a mess. I alluded to it before, but it's not ideal to have a guy calling his first game for the team in the championship game. Kiffin's inability to be focused on the task at hand (which is somewhat comparable to the job Smart did against Clemson last year) became a big problem. This was a lesser of two evils, and as soon as it became clear this was a problem, my hopes for a championship went down significantly. Sarkisian had to go out there and call plays without the benefit of introducing his own offense (which while similar is not identical). If Kiffin had been focused and did the job to the best of his abilities, I have little doubt that Alabama's offense could have performed better.
Bad luck:
Alabama has had a lot of good luck over the years. Cody's block in 2009, Iowa State's win in 2011. The fact that their starting QBs don't seem to miss starts. But, things can't always go in their favor. From the kick six in 2013, to Bo's injury last night (imagine if Henry had been hurt in the Clemson game), sometimes a little bad luck goes a long way. Heck, if NC State could kick a field goal, Alabama is probably celebrating a championship right now. This is actually what makes Alabama's accomplishments so amazing though. That somehow, they find a way to consistently overcome bad luck that plagues pretty much every team. Alabama has won 3 SEC titles in a row, they've been to the playoffs 3 years in a row. Even when they lose it is a close game.
Alabama is still Alabama:
Each time Alabama stumbles, there's people out there that want to point fingers and explain why this means Alabama is done for, or find some fundamental flaw. I don't see it. Ohio State lost two games this year, including a blowout. Yet, I think we all know they're loaded with talent and have a great coach. Florida State lost 3 games this year, including a blowout. Yet, I think the same can be said for them. Alabama lost one game, on the final play in the championship game. They'll lose some key guys, but if anyone can reload, it's Alabama.
We probably haven't seen the best from Hurts:
It's important to remember the obstacles Hurts was facing. Inexperience, a distracted, or brand new play caller. Stuff like that can't help. Yet, he still came through every time this year when he absolutely had to. What he could become remains to be seen, but the upside is huge. Hurts was actually better as a freshman (remember, true freshman) than Lamar Jackson (8TDs/12 INTs) for instance. Considerably better as a matter of fact. Vince Young's first season (redshirt freshman) he wasn't very good (6 TDs/7 INTs) he was also a mess as a passer his sophomore year(12 TDs/11 INTs). The following year he threw for 3,000 yards. Deshaun Watson and Tim Tebow did look very sharp as true freshman, but neither were asked to do very much either. Another example would be Jacob Eason, who despite all the hype really looked worse. Heck, Hurts put up better passing numbers than Peyton Manning did as a true freshman. There is a legitimate debate to be had that Hurts might be the best true freshman quarterback ever. Alabama also played the toughest schedule in all of the FBS, so Hurts was facing a ton of adversity. If he progresses and doesn't regress, he could become the most dominant Saban quarterback ever. It might not even be close.
So, what does that all add up to? Not everything went Alabama's way, and not everything can go Alabama's way. However, we might be entering an era Alabama isn't really accustomed to. Alabama might have their own Tim Tebow or Deshaun Watson. They have a great playcaller who develops quarterbacks well. If Hurts can develop more, this team could take another step forward, and that would be very scary to the competition.
Luck still has to favor Alabama. Hurts needs to stay healthy, players need to avoid doing stupid things, etc... but at this point in time I feel better about the upcoming season than I did at this point last year.
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